TheKnow

Watch, follow and gamble on sports every single day! Absolutely love it!! I frequently compare bookmaker's prices against Betfair prices to find value bets, but I am not an arbor, despite what some people may presume from the way I find many of my selections. You will see from the comments I post that I try to offer as much insight as I possibly can about the reasons behind making my selections. Good luck if you follow me, hopefully I can find us a few winners and make us a bit of cash!

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TheKnow's Tips History

18 April 2024

17:20 5:20 Newmarket

Carrytheone

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@21.00

Lose

-50

CARRYTHEONE is making his debut for Michael Bell here. The selection has a solid enough profile from this mark of 102 and just needs something to change or click for him to get his head back in front and a change of yard could make all the difference.

17:00 5:00 Cheltenham

Briery Butterfly

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@81.00

Lose

-50

BRIERY BUTTERFLY was well beaten behind today's race favourite Anno Power at Ascot in February. But the selection is bred for further, is stepping up 1f here and Cheltenham is a much better test of stamina, so it isn't impossible the form can be overturned with such inexperienced horses and 80/1 looks well worth a small punt.

16:35 4:35 Clonmel

Andyourbirdcansing

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@23.00

Lose

-50

This isn't massively confident selection, however I do find it interesting that on the only previous occasion when Phillip Donovan rode ANDYOURBIRDCANSING coincided with by far the horses highest RPR performance. He ran to an RPR of 96 in Kilbeggan last year for today's jockey, where as his previous best under usual jockey Liam Quinlan was only 77. I'm taking a chance that Donovan is the key to this horse and can get a good tune out of him,

16:17 4:17 Ripon

Danzan

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@29.00

Lose

-50

DANZAN was rated 85 last year but runs here from a mark of only 77. The selection also won a race from a mark of 79 at Thirsk, so this is definitely a winnable mark.

15:42 3:42 Ripon

Kitsune Power

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@26.00

Lose

-50

KITSUNE POWER has dropped 15lb in the handicap from this time last year. His last winning mark is also 9lb higher than the 82 he runs off today. He's a very well handicapped horse on old form and this change of yard to Tim Easterby could see the selection spark back into life and make a mockery of this lowered handicap mark.

15:15 3:15 Cheltenham

Midnight Ginger

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@15.00

Lose

-50

With an RPR of only 94 last time out, it's clear to everyone that the step up to 3m last time out didn't suit MIDNIGHT GINGER at all. He's running from a mark of 117, which was the same mark he won off 3 starts ago and I can see another big run here now dropped back down in trip.

15:00 3:00 Newmarket

Makarova

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@13.00

Lose

-50

The key piece of form for this race looks to be the Champions Sprint Stakes Group 1 at Ascot, with MAKAROVA my selection in this race. William Buick takes the ride today for the first time, which boosts his chances and suggests Ed Walker fancies a big run here.

14:40 2:40 Cheltenham

Mary

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@41.00

Lose

-50

MARY is an interesting selection here, given that she is significantly stepping up in trip at a course where stamina and an uphill finish suggest dropping back in trip would make more sense. The selection has dropped another 3lb in the handicap and if she's always wanted a stamina test, like this move by the trainer suggests, then over a more suitable trip and a further drop in the handicap, the selection could run a race at a big price.

1 member found this comment useful

14:25 2:25 Newmarket

Dancing Away

Daily Racing

50 WINR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR

@13.00

Void

Charlie Hills is pitching his filly straight in against the boys with a handy 5lb allowance in hand for DANCING AWAY as the only filly in the race. She's well bred and could be anything on debut.

14:05 2:05 Cheltenham

I Am Gonna Be

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@11.00

Lose

-50

I AM GONNA BE was pulled up last time out, but with a change of scenery (having his first run for Charlie Lonsdon here), there's a reason to believe he can run back to form. I noticed his only decent race he ran for Lucinda Russell was on his first run for that yard, following a move from Michael Scudamore's base. Can history repeat itself and the selection run very well on debut for his new trainer? I think so.

1 member found this comment useful

13:30 1:30 Cheltenham

Grain Of Hope

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@15.00

Lose

-50

GRAIN OF HOPE is my NAP selection of the day. Emma Lavelle's filly was beaten at odds on when last seen over hurdles, but the pair pulled well clear of the third that day and the selection has since had a run out on the flat. She runs from 3lb out of the handicap but with Freddie Gingell able to claim 5lb, that brings the selection back into the fold and I fancy a big run at a decent enough price.

11 April 2024

16:40 4:40 Aintree

Path Doroux

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@7.50

Lose

-50

Path Doroux ran a very solid race in the Johnny Henderson at Cheltenham, finishing 3rd behind reopposing Unexpected Party here. On that day, the selection was giving the winner 4lb but is now receiving 2lb, which could be enough to see him overturn the form. What I also noticed was the selection weakened inside the final furlong, which makes me think this flatter track, and most importantly, no uphill finish could also help him overturn the form with Dan Skelton's charge.

14:55 2:55 Aintree

Bravemansgame

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@11.00

Lose

-50

Bravemansgame is my selection in this race, as much by default as anything else. First off, I cannot back anything out of the Nicky Henderson yard after their problems at Cheltenham, which rules Shiskin out. I also don't like back horses at short prices coming off the back of a gruelling Cheltenham Festival run, which rules Gerri Colombe out. Then you've got Cheltenham novice form vs Cheltenham Gold Cup form, and while Corbetts Cross was massively impressive when winning the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham, I don't want to be taking 7/2 about a horse when I can take 10/1 for a more proven horse with solid Gold Cup form, who finished a respectable 5th despite the ground being against him. I'm backing Paul Nicholls' horse to run a blinder at a decent price here.

14:20 2:20 Aintree

Nurburgring

Daily Racing

50 WINNAPR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR

@11.00

Void

After the Cheltenham Festival meeting that Nicky Henderson's yard had, I have to oppose odds on favourite Sir Gino in this race. Nurburgring went off at 6/1 for the Triumph Hurdle and finised a credible 4th, behind reopposing Kargese who finished 2nd. I thought Nurburgring was a bit too far back to make up the ground up the hill and expect him to be better suited by this flatter Aintree track for making his move at the business end of the race. The selection is definitely the value bet at 10/1, with form that ties in well with second favourite Kargese who is only 7/2.

13:45 1:45 Aintree

Il Etait Temps

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@5.00

Win

200

Il Etait Temps was no match for Gaelic Warrior in the Arkle at Cheltenham last time out, but that form is rock solid, with the selection's old foe Found A Fifty narrowly ahead in second. Aintree should suit Il Etait Temps much better, as he's never really shone at Cheltenham. With Grey Dawning and Ginny's Destiny bringing Cheltenham Festival form from the Turners Novices Chase into this race, it's a chance to see how it compares to the Arkle form. I'm backing Willie Mullins to get his Aintree Grand National meeting off to a winning start.

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Tips history contains the last 35 days tips.

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