ianjhamilton
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ianjhamilton's Tips History
19 January 2026
17:30 Cremonese v Verona
Cremonese
92 WIN
@+160
Lose
-92
Cremonese are my only bet tonight. When priced between 2.5??"2.75 this season, they have won 4 times in 5 matches for a level stakes profit of 5.72 pts. Worth following with those stats.
Subtotal-92
18 January 2026
16:15 Rennes v Le Havre
Rennes
50 WIN
@-161
Lose
-50
Rennes look to have a good chance of a victory at home today. When priced between 1.50??"1.75, their home record is currently 14 wins from 18 matches for a level stakes profit of +4.03 pts.
14:00 Bologna v Fiorentina
Bologna
50 WIN
@+150
Lose
-50
Bologna are another team with a strong home record in their current price band. When priced between 2.25 and 2.50 on the early prices, their record stands at 9 wins from 12 matches, for 9.25 pts profit.
12:30 Bochum v Darmstadt
Bochum
50 WIN
@+150
Lose
-50
Bochum, when priced between 2.25??"2.50 on early prices at home, have a record of 6 wins from 7 matches for a level stakes profit of 7 pts (85% strike rate). Worth following at good odds.
Subtotal-150
17 January 2026
17:30 Osasuna v Real Oviedo
Osasuna
50 WIN
@-124
Win
40
Osasuna are another home bet for me today. When priced between 1.76??"2.00, their home record stands at 11 wins from 15 bets, an LSP of 5.52 pts and a strike rate of 73.33%.
17:30 Swansea v Birmingham
Swansea
50 WIN
@+170
Lose
-50
A bigger-priced home selection here. Swansea, when priced between 2.75??"3.00 in the early prices, have a record of 7 wins from 12 games and a level-stakes profit of 8.18 pts. Worth a small investment.
15:00 Chelsea v Brentford
Enzo Fernandez
Anytime Goalscorer
150 WIN
@+300
Lose
-150
After nicking a late goal for me the other day, Fernández is still value to score anytime at home v Brentford today. An xG per 90 of 0.43, six goals and at least two shots per game on average, the midfielder consistently offers value for a goal. My model suggests a price of 2.50 for Enzo here, so 4.00 is a nice price.
Igor Thiago
Anytime Goalscorer
150 WIN
@+160
Lose
-150
Thiago is in great form currently, with a game-high xG per 90 of 0.80, 16 goals in 21 appearances, and an average of 2.55 shots per game. I make him odds-on to score anytime. If you add his penalty-taking record, 2.60 looks more than fair. NAP.
Igor Thiago
First Goalscorer
50 WIN
@+550
Lose
-50
6.50 for Thiago looks OK value to score first in this match. Both teams will be looking for goals in this London derby, and Thiago leads the way with goals scored and xG per 90 minutes. Odds on to score anytime in my book, so 6.50 for first seems OK. Just a small bet.
15:00 Sunderland v Crystal Palace
Justin Devenny
Anytime Goalscorer
150 WIN
@+700
Lose
-150
The final 3pm match I am concentrating on is the Sunderland v Palace game. The only value I see is for Justin Devenny. Although he has only scored once this season, he has a high xG per 90 minutes of 0.42 and averages 2.42 shots per 90 minutes. This all equates to an anytime price of 4.12 on my figures. 8.00 is massive value.
Justin Devenny
First Goalscorer
50 WIN
@+1600
Lose
-50
As mentioned in the anytime market, Devenny is the only player giving value in the goalscorer markets. With an xG of 0.42 per 90 minutes, he should have scored more than one goal so far this season.
15:00 Tottenham v West Ham
Tottenham
100 WIN
@-136
Lose
-100
A risky one with Spurs out of form. However, a record of 10 wins from 14 matches at home when priced between 1.75??"2.00 gives over a 70% strike rate. West Ham have been dire lately.
14:30 Borussia Dortmund v St Pauli
Borussia Dortmund
100 WIN
@-333
Win
30
A shorty here, but Dortmund have a great record when priced at between 1.25-1.50 on the early prices. A home record of 26 wins from 30 matches and a strike rate of 86.67% equates to a decent bet.
12:30 Coventry v Leicester
Coventry
75 WIN
@-161
Win
47
Trying another method here. Coventry at home, when priced between 1.50??"1.75 in the early odds, have won 14 matches from the last 16 ??" an 87.50% strike rate. Has to be worth a follow with that record.
12:30 Man Utd v Man City
Bruno Fernandes
Anytime Goalscorer
125 WIN
@+332
Lose
-125
A few players offering value in the goalscorer markets in the early kick-off in Manchester. I have Bruno, Foden, Casemiro and Alleyne all at a reasonable price. Fernandes has a season xG per 90 of 0.47, with 5 goals in the PL this season and a shots per 90 average of 2.75. 4.33 represents some strong value. Taking into account set-piece duty, I have him priced around 2.75 to score anytime.
Casemiro
Anytime Goalscorer
50 WIN
@+650
Lose
-50
Casemiro is another player representing value in the early game. A season xG per 90 of 0.20, 4 goals this season, and an average of 2.00 shots per 90 minutes played. I have priced him up at 6.50 to score anytime, so the 7.50 on offer is some value. Small bet.
Phil Foden
Anytime Goalscorer
50 WIN
@+259
Lose
-50
Foden also is reasonably priced to score anytime. A season xG per 90 of 0.31, 7 goals, and over 2 shots per 90 minutes played on average. My model calculates a price of 3.21, so 3.60 is more than fair. Small bet again.
Bruno Fernandes
First Goalscorer
50 WIN
@+1000
Lose
-50
Throwing a small dart on Bruno to score first as well as anytime. Obviously, Haaland takes up a large chunk of this market, but Bruno is a fair price at 11.00, with set-piece and penalty duty. I have him priced up at around 2.75 to score anytime. Small bet at a decent price. Others on my list include Casemiro, Foden and Max Alleyne.
Subtotal-858
16 January 2026
20:00 Espanyol v Girona
Fernando Calero
First Goalscorer
75 WIN
@+3300
Lose
-75
Not much value floating about on the late Spanish game. The only player I have is Espanyol defender Calero. He has a season xG per 90 of 0.13, which is an average of 0.53 shots per game. The 0.13 xG equates to about 8/1 to score anytime. Therefore 33/1 to score first is good enough for me to have a small bet on. Going to make it the night's NAP.
19:45 Pisa v Atalanta
Giorgio Scalvini
First Goalscorer
50 WIN
@+3300
Lose
-50
Some fantastic value on two Atalanta defenders in tonight's Serie A game. Both Scalvini and Ahanor are standout value for both anytime and first goalscorer markets. I'm on both. Scalvini has a high xG per 90 of 0.29, albeit from not many minutes, and a shots-per-game ratio of 1.06. I make him around 4/1 to score anytime, so 33/1 for first goal is fine. Small bet.
19:30 Werder Bremen v Eintracht Frankfurt
Romano Schmid
First Goalscorer
50 WIN
@+1000
Lose
-50
Werder midfielder Schmid is one of only two players in this match who represent any value to me. A team-high season xG per 90 of 0.29 and an average of 1.41 shots per 90, I have him priced at 9/4 to score anytime. At 4.5, that represents the best value. 10/1 for first goal is decent enough, especially with Burkardt missing for Frankfurt. Small bet.
18:00 Monaco v Lorient
Pablo Pagis
First Goalscorer
75 WIN
@+1000
Lose
-75
Even though Monaco are favourites tonight, I found little value in their scorers. Therefore, the value play is to back Pablo Pagis anytime and first goalscorer. He has a team-high xG per 90 mins of 0.45, an average of 2.66 shots per 90 mins, and I have him priced up at 3.16 to score anytime (4.5 available). 10/1 to score first is the best value here. Small bet.
Subtotal-250
15 January 2026
19:45 Como v AC Milan
Christopher Nkunku
First Goalscorer
125 WIN
@+650
Lose
-125
Lots of value around with goalscorers in the late Serie A match. My shortlist includes Leão, Fofana, Douvikas, Kempf, Moreno, and the one I have gone for here, Christopher Nkunku. Having run through my figures, Nkunku has a match-high 0.61 xG per 90 minutes and shots per 90 of 2.16. Add on penalty duty, and 13/2 looks good enough value here. Small bet, but NAP for the night.
19:30 Augsburg v Union Berlin
Anton Kade
First Goalscorer
75 WIN
@+1200
Lose
-75
The 7:30 pm kick-off in Germany offers a few players at value prices for anytime and first scorer. My shortlist consists of Burke, Kade, Banks, and Querfeld. I have gone for Augsburg attacking midfielder Anton Kade for the first goal here. A team-high season xG per 90 of 0.31 and shots per 90 of 2.32. I make him 7/2 to score anytime, so 12/1 for first goal represents some value. It was a toss-up between Kade and Burke. Small bet on both.
17:30 Verona v Bologna
Gift Emmanuel Orban
First Goalscorer
75 WIN
@+700
Win
525
Gift Orban is the value play in the early Serie A kick-off. Although Verona have been struggling for goals, Orban has a match-high xG per 90 of 0.76 and a shots per 90 of 4.01. I make him short odds to score anytime, so 7/1 to score first offers some value. No value in the Bologna players; many of their high-xG players are not starting. Small bet.
Subtotal325
14 January 2026
20:00 Chelsea v Arsenal
Andrey Santos
First Goalscorer
50 WIN
@+2000
Lose
-50
A few players make my shortlist tonight including Gabriel, Timber, Guiu, and Fernández. However, Andrey Santos may be one to creep under the radar. With an xG per 90 of 0.32 and 1.50 shots per 90, 20/1 first goal looks some value. I am also on anytime at 17/2, as I have him priced up at just over 4.1. A final small bet for the evening.
19:30 RB Leipzig v SC Freiburg
Christoph Baumgartner
First Goalscorer
125 WIN
@+750
Lose
-125
Leipzig midfielder Baumgartner is on a good vein of form and looks good value at 8.5 to score the first goal tonight. I have a fair few that are value and have backed them all anytime and first. The list includes Raum, Suzuki, Kübler and Osterhage. However, with a match-high xG per 90 mins of 0.52, Baumgartner gets the vote. I have him priced up at around 2.10 to score anytime, so 8.5 first goal is generous enough. NAP.
19:30 TSG Hoffenheim v Borussia Mgladbach
Joseph Scally
First Goalscorer
50 WIN
@+3300
Lose
-50
The value in the Hoffenheim v M'gladbach game appears to be with the away side tonight. I have a couple of value bets to score anytime, with the biggest value being American FB/WB Joe Scally. An xG per 90 of 0.19, about a shot per match and one goal already this season. 33/1 to score first is good value, as well as anything over my price of 13/2 to score anytime (18/1 available). Another small bet tonight.
17:30 Napoli v Parma
Rasmus Hojlund
First Goalscorer
75 WIN
@+359
Lose
-75
Not a huge fan of tipping up favs for FGS; however, Højlund does offer some value. Having quickly run my numbers, he has the match-highest xG per 90 and, with a high chance of taking a penalty, I have him at odds-on to score anytime. 4.6 is pretty tight with lads, as he's currently 5.0 with some other bookies. But that price is still value. Small bet.
Subtotal-300
13 January 2026
19:30 Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen
Romano Schmid
First Goalscorer
75 WIN
@+1600
Lose
-75
Werder striker Schmid looks value for first goal tonight. He is playing against a slightly weaker-than-normal Dortmund side and has a team-high xG per 90 minutes of 0.30. He looks the value play at 16/1. I have him priced up at 5.34 to score anytime. The other value play is Schmidt (with a T) at 13.19 to score anytime by my figures.
19:30 Mainz v Heidenheim
Silvan Widmer
First Goalscorer
125 WIN
@+1800
Win
2250
Silvan Widmer looks great value here. Currently playing in an attacking midfielder role, he has an xG per 90 minutes of 0.26. This makes him value for anytime and first goal. For anytime, I make his chance 4.13, with 7.50 available. NAP for tonight.
Subtotal2175
10 January 2026
12:15 Everton v Sunderland
Beto
First Goalscorer
100 WIN
@+650
Lose
-100
Beto is the real standout value in the early kickoff between two Premiership sides. The Everton lineup looks slightly stronger than the Sunderland starting XI. Beto has a very strong xG per 90 minutes, and I actually made him about 2.8 to score anytime. Bet365 are currently 3.75 to score anytime!
Subtotal-100
09 January 2026
19:30 Eintracht Frankfurt v Borussia Dortmund
Julian Brandt
First Goalscorer
100 WIN
@+1000
Lose
-100
Veteran midfielder Julian Brandt is the only value in the goalscorer markets in tonight's Bundesliga game. With a current season xG per 90 of 0.36, this gives a fair odds price of around 3.06 for anytime scorer. 11.00 or better for first goal looks reasonable value.
Subtotal-100
08 January 2026
20:00 Arsenal v Liverpool
Jurrien Timber
Anytime Goalscorer
125 WIN
@+700
Lose
-125
Arsenal defender Timber looks the standout value for a goal in the big Premier League game against Liverpool. Arsenal's expected goals total tonight is 2.0, and Timber has an xG per 90 minutes of 0.17, which equates to fair odds of about 4.93. Therefore 8.0 seems more than fair.
Bukayo Saka
First Goalscorer
125 WIN
@+700
Lose
-125
Arsenal wonderkid Saka is great value for the first goal against a weakened Liverpool side tonight. His current xG per 90 minutes stands at 0.40, which equates to fair odds of about 5.19. Making 8.0 or thereabouts very fair. Hoping to end a losing spell!
19:45 AC Milan v Genoa
Youssouf Fofana
First Goalscorer
110 WIN
@+1600
Lose
-110
On a losing run with these value picks; however, it'll turn. Tonight's late Serie A kick-off in Milan has a few value plays for me, including Pulisic, Pavoli?, Colombo, and Fofana. I'm going with Fofana as the main bet. An xG per 90 of 0.20 gives an anytime GS percentage of 21% and an FGS of about 9%, so 16/1 is a great price.
17:30 Cremonese v Cagliari
Filippo Terracciano
First Goalscorer
50 WIN
@+3300
Lose
-50
A small bet on full-back/midfielder Terracciano in the early kick-off in Italy this evening. With 2 goals this season and a historic xG per 90 of about 0.14, anytime goalscorer odds of anything bigger than 9/1 and FGS odds bigger than 22/1 is fair. 142% positive value bet ??" albeit a long shot!
Subtotal-410
07 January 2026
20:15 Burnley v Man Utd
Patrick Dorgu
Anytime Goalscorer
180 WIN
@+400
Lose
-180
Patrick Dorgu is one of the standout value bets in the Burnley v Man Utd match tonight. Playing in a more advanced role, as he does for his country, he is always a danger. I have him priced at below 4, so 5 with bet365 is a decent price. 125.94% positive value.
Bruno Fernandes
First Goalscorer
300 WIN
@+650
Lose
-300
Bruno Fernandes is the standout first goalscorer bet tonight at Turf Moor. A large historical xG per 90 of 0.47 gives a price of just above evens for anytime and around 9/2 or 5/1 for first goalscorer. In my opinion, 13/2 with Lads is good value. 169.68% value.
19:30 Bournemouth v Tottenham
Marcus Tavernier
Anytime Goalscorer
175 WIN
@+375
Lose
-175
The standout value tonight in this game for me is Marcus Tavernier. With a historical xG per 90 minutes of 0.23 this season and a danger at set pieces and sometimes penalty duty, anything over 4.0 looks like value. Coral are standout at 5.75 if you can get it.
19:30 Everton v Wolverhampton
Jhon Arias
Anytime Goalscorer
50 WIN
@+600
Lose
-50
Small bet on John Arias anytime scorer tonight v Everton. Only Arias, Hwang, and Mosquera offer any sort of reasonable value. Arias has a historic xG per 90 minutes of a team-leading 0.29, giving fair odds of about 6.33 ??" a positive bet of about 110%.
Subtotal-705
06 January 2026
20:00 West Ham v Nottm Forest
Kyle Walker Peters
Anytime Goalscorer
125 WIN
@+1800
Lose
-125
Walker-Peters is the only player with any value after running my model for the Premier League game tonight. His historical xG per 90 minutes of 0.12 gives fair odds of 10.51 versus bookmaker odds of around 19.00. A massive 180% positive value.
Kyle Walker Peters
First Goalscorer
50 WIN
@+5000
Lose
-50
Walker-Peters is also the only player with any value from my model numbers. I would have been interested in Savanarola, but he does not start tonight, and Sou?ek is about right price-wise, leaving KWP the standout bet. My model suggests fair odds of 29.38, with 51 available.
17:00 Lecce v Roma
Wesley Lima
First Goalscorer
50 WIN
@+2000
Lose
-50
Brazilian wing-back Wesley is the value play tonight in the Lecce v Roma match. With a historical xG per 90 of about 0.15, his price of 20/1 for first goal looks slightly high. I have him priced closer to 16/1. This price represents about 119% value.
16:00 Algeria v DR Congo
Riyad Mahrez
First Goalscorer
195 WIN
@+750
Lose
-195
Former Man City star Mahrez is huge value at Betway's 8.50 to score first against DR Congo in the AFCON tournament today. Looking at his historical record, his penalty duty, and a strong Algerian team, I have him priced at fair odds of about 5.50 to 6.0. If you can get 8.50, I make that about 150% positive value.
14:00 Pisa v Como
Jacobo Ramon
First Goalscorer
50 WIN
@+2500
Lose
-50
Small bet in the early kick-off. The strong Como CB Ramón represents the only real value in this match according to my figures. I'm more interested in him anytime at 11??"12/1, but 25/1 to score first represents some value, with approx. 5% chance of scoring first (108% value).
Subtotal-470
05 January 2026
20:00 Leicester v West Brom
George Campbell
First Goalscorer
50 WIN
@+3300
Lose
-50
Only value I can find in the prices is WBA defender George Campbell. Slim value at 33/1, some bigger prices elsewhere. (40/1 available) = 124% positive value according to my figures.
16:00 Egypt v Benin
Omar Marmoush
First Goalscorer
65 WIN
@+500
Lose
-65
The City player is my main pick for FGS here. After running my own numbers using player historical xG per 90 minutes, plus the team and match expected goals, I have Marmoush fair odds of 4.91 for FGS. If you can get 5.75??"6.00 you're doing well. (122.20% positive value).
Subtotal-115
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Tips history contains the last 35 days tips.
Please note that this information is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as an indicator of a tipsters real life performance. The OLBG Tipster Competition is a simulation game and some of the rules and prices used by the tipsters may not always be available in the real world which can lead to misleading informaiton.
