RedCoat64

Statistically speaking, this is a bit of a head-scratcher. If you remove Brommapojkarna's incredible 6-4 comeback home win over Norrköping in August, this game *might* produce fewer than 2.5 goals. But that's currently at a price higher than I'm comfortable with. I think the key factor here is that Hacken are clearly concentrating on the Conference League this season, but neither club is safe from either relegation or the playoffs. I would definitely think about laying a mine at nearer 1.40 as this looks as if it might go either way on this market.

With an 11-point lead at the top of the Allsvenskan, a win today would more or less assure Mjallby wins the title. They've not lost any of their last ten home games and kept five clean sheets in that period. Elfsborg's form on the road is poor; they've lost four of the last five. Quite possibly a low-scoring game, but I can't see the hosts losing.

Fortuna Dusseldorf haven't scored at home since May, but that streak will have to end at some point and probably will against a Nurnberg side that has only kept two away clean sheets in their last ten road trips. This *may* be one of those games where a late goal wins both the game and the bet, so a mine at around 1.29 might be worth considering. The current average BL2 goals per game is 2.67, and my stats say 3.18 is possible here, but that's dependent on how inept Nurnberg's defense is.

I wouldn't normally go under 1.4 for anything, but I'm playing this as a second leg of an >2.5 goals double with the Nurnberg v Hertha Berlin game earlier.

Surprised to see the price so high for this one. Seven of Elfsborg's last ten home games in the Allsvenskan have seen more than 2.5 goals. The last ten away trips for Degerfors have seen an average of 3.9 goals per game. The visitors have conceded the most away goals in the league this season.