HighSparrow

This could well pan out to be the battle of the Steves, or maybe even those with the initials SA. One starts favourite (Alker), while I consider the 20/1 quite good value for a golfer as accomplished as the 2023 winner. The old adage "horses for courses" could well apply here. He has been a consistent performer on the Champions Tour, and on his best day he'd give this lot a shake.

Kiwi (New Zealander) Steve Alker is likely to start favorite, and that's probably indicative of his great recent form on this tour. He's hitting the ball so well and led this tournament through 36 holes last year. He will be very well motivated.

You're getting 22/1 for an accomplished golfer on courses that have this type of layout. Royal Golf Dar es Salam (Red Course) is a tree-lined, strategic course that punishes loose driving, and Jaidee has accuracy and consistency in spades. He is very good off the tee, excels in grinding conditions (weather events), and his strong iron play combined with his accuracy lean me towards him appealing as an each-way chance in a field as open as this one. He's a good fit for this course layout, so each-way all day for me at this type of price.

This is a guy who lurks with intent here. He's at quite nice odds in an even field and could be underrated on this course. Ewen Ferguson has excellent recent form and lost this in a play-off last year, so he will be motivated to correct that aberration. His tee-to-green stats are good, and he's converted that to wins on this tour previously.

Maybe there could be an element of kismet in this selection, given that he's named Forrest (and he's no Gump, you understand, even though it's spelled the same). He's playing on holes that are tree-lined in places. You'd think, at least by names, it might be a match made in heaven. All the same, in this field he'll need to have his eye really primed in the tree-lined sections, as they can be very costly if you can't hit a ball straight. Thankfully, most of the time he can, but we all have our off days. If Grant is having one of his "on" days, then I think he's a live longshot. It is golf after all, and anything is possible when small balls are being smacked around at great speed while trying to avoid trees seemingly standing in their way just for the hell of it. "Hit it straight and find your open gate" should be the motto for this course. Grant has a 10th and 16th in recent events, but I think he's better than that, and I consider him an 'upside at the odds' chance.

Jordan could be a 'smoky' in a field as open as this one and with so much potentially hidden talent. The course demands controlled tee-to-green play, consistency, smart scoring on the short par 4s, and avoiding mistakes on those tight, tree-lined holes, as they can cost you a lot of places if you get it wrong here. Consistent type in recent years, and I like him as an under-discovered value for a golfer who has made the top 10 here previously.

Lindell will come in for some support here, as this short, tight, tree-lined course favors precision over power, and he sits nicely on both scores. He can be inconsistent late, but if he puts it all together on the day, he could be a real threat to the leading lights. He's my improver here because this is a tricky course but has room for hot players who score a birdie or two to really get rolling once they get their eye in for the layout.

Yes, Sam Bairstow doesn't win out of turn but is a generally consistent golfer who has been off the boil from time to time and can be hard to follow. Equally, he is one of those talented and under-rated individuals who could come to light on a course such as this one at Rinkven.

Matti Schmid is an interesting golfer here. He is not a big-name golfer, but he does have real talent on his day. He's a good striker of the ball who is consistent with his approach shots. That tracks well when you consider this course rewards consistency in approach, plus being in tune with your putter thereafter. He's capable of footing it with these guys at his best.

Coody appeals as a long-shot chance. He's got a strong recent form trend going and multiple top-25 finishes. The Texan has a strong history in the region. If his putter starts running hot, then I think he's the man who can come home the best here.