EricHBT

Mercedes achieved a front row lock-out in qualifying, but Ferrari start on the second row, and they have been making exceptional starts in the early races this season. We may find therefore that the positions have been swapped within the first few corners. If that happens, then Leclerc looked the racier of the two Ferrari drivers during the sprint race, so it's Charles who would most likely have the best chance of keeping the Mercedes cars behind him, and with his odds as long as 13.0, he's my tip therefore for the victory.

Mercedes and Ferrari look to have a pace advantage over the rest of the field, which suggests the podium positions will be fought between these two teams. Charles Leclerc starts from 4th, but he has finished ahead of teammate Lewis at both the Australian Grand Prix last weekend, and in the Sprint Race this weekend. His podium odds are the most generous of the front-runners, so of the four serious podium contenders, it's Charles who offers the best value.

Gabriel Bortoleto managed a ninth place finish in the season opener at Melbourne, so if he manages to repeat that in the Chinese Grand Prix, then his odds of 5.5 may end up being overly generous. He starts from 16th, so he'll have to make up places in the race, but early indications seem to suggest that the new regs have made overtaking somewhat easier this season. His grid position may therefore not be as big a factor as it would be in previous years, and with the midfield looking fairly closely matched on pace, Brotoleto could be a contender for another points finish.

We don't have much data to go on, but Max Verstappen claimed the fastest lap last time out in Australia. He starts Sunday's race from down in 8th, so he'll have places to make up and will likely have to keep pushing until the chequered flag. If that proves to be the case, then he may be in the mix for another fastest lap.

The top three teams - Mercedes, Ferrari and McLaren - look to have a significant margin over the rest of the field, so barring retirements, I don't expect to see any surprises in the top six. With that in mind, of the Mercedes, Ferrari and McLaren drivers, Lando Norris is the driver with the 'longest' odds, so he's the driver I'm tipping for a top six finish.