5:00 Wolverhampton Tips

Watchdog is a gelding rated 56 who has shown he can be competitive off this mark. This includes a Wolverhampton all-weather run over today’s trip where he travelled well into the race and finished within two lengths of the winner after being ridden patiently, and another effort at a similar distance when he stayed on strongly to place in the first three off a comparable weight. Those runs suggest the surface and trip suit and that today’s rating is workable. He tends to do his best work when not forced early and allowed to build through the race, which looks likely again here. With the odds pointing to more of an each-way than dominant chance, this is a slightly speculative angle, but there are clear reasons to expect him to run to that level and get involved late if things fall right.

Jamie Sommers has won 1 of 1 runs at this course and 1 of 1 runs in this class. Won a novice stakes by a neck last time out and pedigree suggests that 6f will suit. Rossa Ryan takes the ride.

Has won 3 of last 5 races, including both of the last 2 outings, including over this course and distance 2 weeks ago. Should be there or thereabouts in hat-trick attempt.

The 3-year-old stands at 0-3, but his last performance was better than the statistics indicate when finishing 5th in a 6f race at this C&D. He was prominent early and made a late effort but was blocked and lost momentum towards the end. He has definite each-way prospects at 10/1 if he can squeeze out a little extra.

Alfa Duplicate is a gelding rated 59 who has shown he can be competitive off this mark. This includes a Wolverhampton all-weather run over today’s trip where he traveled well and finished within two lengths of the winner after being produced late, and another similar effort when placing after racing prominently and sticking on. Those runs confirm the surface and distance suit and that today’s rating is workable based on proven form. He tends to run his best races when able to get into a rhythm rather than being rushed early, which looks likely here. With the market suggesting a realistic but not dominant chance, there are solid reasons to expect him to run to that level again and be involved in the finish if things fall right.