2:30 Doncaster Tips

Toca Madera looks well handicapped on some of last season's form and arrives here after an encouraging return to form at York. Last time out he finished 3rd in a Class 2 handicap (0-105) at York, beaten only ½L off 84, which was a clear step in the right direction. That effort suggested he remains capable of competing at a higher level than today's race. His standout piece of form came in a strong Class 2 handicap at York Racecourse over 5f on good to firm ground, where he finished 3rd, beaten 1¾L off 95 behind American Affair (now rated 111) and JM Jungle (now rated 108). That form reads extremely well in the context of a Class 3 handicap. His last turf success came at Windsor Racecourse over 6f on good to firm ground, winning a Class 3 handicap by ½L off 94. Now racing off 86, despite a 2 lb rise for the York effort, he drops in grade, gets suitable ground, and has a middle draw that should give him options. Toca Madera looks to hold strong claims.

Naana's Sparkle boasts a maximum Top Speed (TS) of 90 and a Racing Post Rating (RPR) of 100, the highest recorded in his recent starts over this distance. In his last outing at Yarmouth (5f), he covered the distance with a fractional section pure speed index of 11.2 seconds per furlong over the three middle furlongs, sustaining his final effort. He is a situational frontrunner/promoter. He likes to push the pace early or stay close to the leader in the middle of the field. He has shown excellent adaptability to tracks with long, flat straights. His ability to handle surfaces ranging from good to soft to good to firm mitigates the risks posed by the weather. He is trained by Lemos De Souza, who has a solid 40% win rate with the horses he fields, whether they are returning to racing or on short runs at tracks in and around Yorkshire.

This horse caught the eye on his reappearance at Beverley but has not carried that form on, with two okay runs. He is back to a course where he has course-and-distance form. Twelve months ago he finished 2nd in this race.

Needs to improve on recent starts, but conditions will be fine and two pounds lower. Won this race last year and could well be the target for the season.

Went into my tracker after seeing him finish a lowly 12th of 16 last time out only 14 days ago in a Class 2 over 5f at York. The reason I noted him was he was denied a clear run, travelling strongly over 1f out, and couldn't get on terms after having to switch. The jockey could take some blame, so it's interesting D. Nolan returns to the saddle. Drops to a Class 3 today with rating down two to 89 from 91.

Needs more, but Mark has been going down and is now eight pounds lighter than in his last win. Could be a factor.