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Jake Knapp is a value pick for first-round leader. His T8 at TPC Craig Ranch last year and T3 at Zurich Classic show momentum. Ranked 16th in first-round scoring average (69.17), Knapp’s length off the tee fits the course’s birdie-heavy layout.
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Joaquin Niemann is the top pick for first-round leader. His three 2025 LIV wins, including Mexico City, and T12 in Hong Kong show Asian form. Leading SG: Approach and birdie-making (top-5) suit the precision-driven Jack Nicklaus Golf Club, ensuring a strong start.
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Jon Rahm is a strong first-round leader contender. His T3 in Mexico City and 11 consecutive LIV top-10s highlight consistency. Captaining Legion XIII, Rahm’s SG: Off-the-Tee and short-game prowess fit the course, boosted by momentum from recent DP World Tour top-10s
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Sebastian Munoz is a value pick. His T7 in Mexico City and T6 in Hong Kong show Asian strength. Ranking fifth in driving accuracy and GIR, Munoz’s SG: Total consistency (14/16 positive rounds) makes him a dark horse for a low opening round.
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Charl Schwartzel brings experience with T26 in Mexico City and two 2023 top-10s. His 2015 Presidents Cup success at this venue and top-15 putting stats align with the course’s short-game demands, positioning him for a surprisingly strong first round.
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Cameron Smith excels in short-game scenarios, ideal for Jack Nicklaus Golf Club. His T5 in Mexico City and T9 in Miami show form. Strong putting (top-15) and prior Asian success (T12 Hong Kong) make him a contender for first-round leader
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Sergio Garcia is a top-5 contender. His 78.00 points (Fireballs GC) and T9 in Mexico City reflect consistency. Garcia’s 2015 Presidents Cup experience here and strong SG: Approach make him a fit for the course, with major pedigree adding confidence.
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Joaquin Niemann is a top-5 lock. His three 2025 LIV wins, including Mexico City, and 124.66 points lead the standings. Top-5 in SG: Approach and birdies, Niemann’s Asian success (T12 Hong Kong, Singapore win) ensures a strong finish at Jack Nicklaus Golf Club.
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His T5 in Mexico City and T12 in Hong Kong show form. Smith’s elite putting and short-game skills suit the course’s demands. As Ripper GC captain, his major win (2022 Open) ensures resilience for a strong tournament.
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His top-10 in Mexico City and 4Aces GC consistency shine. A 2015 Presidents Cup participant at this venue, Johnson’s SG: Off-the-Tee and major experience (2020 Masters) make him a reliable pick for a high finish.
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Jordan Spieth is a strong contender with a 2nd at TPC Craig Ranch in 2022 and T18 at RBC Heritage. His SG: Approach and local Dallas knowledge suit the course. Spieth’s experience in high-pressure events adds confidence for a potential victory.
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Sungjae Im boasts a T5 at the Masters and T11 at RBC Heritage. His consistent top finishes and birdie-making prowess align with TPC Craig Ranch’s demands. Strong SG: Approach and recent form make him a reliable choice for the 2025 title.
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Taylor Pendrith has a T5 at Houston Open. His course familiarity at TPC Craig Ranch and recent form highlight his potential. Pendrith’s ball-striking and ability to go low on birdie-heavy layouts position him well for another strong showing.
Profits calculated to a 10 point stake.
Value Rating is based on comparing the odds of a selection to the theoretical probability of winning based on the percentage of tips for it.
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