Kupoa10
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Kupoa10's Tips History
24 February 2026
22:00 New York v The Bay
New York
50 WIN
@-120
Lose
-50
I’ll go with New York Golf Club in what could be the most entertaining match of the set. New York has already proven they’re built for TGL drama, pushing Atlanta to the wire in last year’s finals and again in this season’s opener, with Schauffele, Fitzpatrick, Fowler, and Young all comfortable in both alternate-shot and singles pressure. The Bay might have the highest “highlight” potential in the league thanks to Åberg, Wyndham Clark, Min Woo Lee, and Lowry, and Clark just set a TGL record with a 372-yard drive, underlining how explosive they can be. Over 15 holes, though, New York’s combination of strong driving, efficient putting, and deeper experience in tight TGL finishes gives them a small but real edge against The Bay’s higher-variance style.
16:30 Andrey Rublev vs Valentin Royer
Andrey Rublev
Win Match
50 WIN
@-454
Win
11
I strongly favour Rublev. He’s a former Dubai champion, with a massive forehand and very heavy, flat ball that jumps through the court in these conditions, and he has a lot of experience handling early-round matches as a top seed. Royer is a promising player but still inexperienced at this level and will likely find it hard to withstand Rublev’s sustained pace in back-to-back rallies. Unless Rublev’s forehand misfires badly, this should be relatively straightforward.
15:00 Jakub Mensik vs Hubert Hurkacz
Hubert Hurkacz
Win Match
50 WIN
@+137
Lose
-50
Despite the seeding, I slightly favour Hubert Hurkacz. Menšík has surged up the rankings and fully deserves a seed here thanks to his big serve and fearless ball-striking, but Hurkacz is one of the best servers on tour and extremely comfortable in fast conditions like Dubai. The match likely comes down to a few tiebreaks; in those moments Hurkacz’s experience and calm under pressure are valuable. If he keeps his backhand return sharp and gets enough balls back into play, he narrowly edges it.
15:00 Ugo Humbert vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Win Match
50 WIN
@+108
Lose
-50
This is one of the matches of the day, and I just shade it to Stefanos Tsitsipas. Humbert’s flat lefty serve and backhand down the line can really bother Stefanos, and he’s beaten big names on fast courts before, so an upset is absolutely live. But Tsitsipas is the defending champion in Dubai, very comfortable with the conditions, and his serve-plus-forehand combination still wins him a lot of free points here. If he keeps the backhand steady and looks to attack with his forehand early in rallies, his greater big-match experience in this stadium should give him a slight edge.
14:30 Alexei Popyrin vs Kamil Majchrzak
Alexei Popyrin
Win Match
50 WIN
@-117
Win
43
I favour Alexei Popyrin. He has a big first serve, heavy forehand and is generally more used to the pace and pressure of ATP-level hard-court events than Majchrzak after the Pole’s time away from the main tour. On a court that rewards first-strike tennis, Popyrin should rack up more cheap points on serve and dictate a lot of rallies with his forehand. As long as he avoids long lapses of errors, his firepower should be enough.
13:00 Otto Virtanen vs Tallon Griekspoor
Tallon Griekspoor
Win Match
50 WIN
@-136
Win
37
Here I lean clearly to Tallon Griekspoor. Virtanen is dangerous with his serve and forehand and has already shown he can beat good players in quick conditions, but Griekspoor has converted his own big serve and aggressive baseline game into multiple ATP titles on hard courts. He’s also become more reliable mentally in tight sets and tiebreaks. Over best-of-three, his slightly higher level on both serve and return should carry him.
11:30 Alexander Shevchenko vs Karen Khachanov
Karen Khachanov
Win Match
50 WIN
@-400
Win
12
Here I favour Karen Khachanov. He’s more established in the top tier, with a big serve and heavy forehand that work very well on Dubai’s hard courts, and he usually handles early-round pressure pretty calmly. Shevchenko has an aggressive game and can definitely take a set if Khachanov starts slowly, but he tends to leak more unforced errors under sustained pressure. Over time, Khachanov’s experience, serve and stability from the back should tell.
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10:00 Daniil Medvedev vs Juncheng Shang
Daniil Medvedev
Win Match
50 WIN
@-499
Win
10
I clearly favour Medvedev. Dubai’s conditions suit his flat, penetrating groundstrokes and deep return position, and he’s a former champion here with a proven record at this tournament. Shang is a talented lefty with good court coverage and counter-punching, but over three sets he shouldn’t yet be able to match Medvedev’s consistency and tactical discipline. Unless Medvedev has one of his rare off-days on serve, this should be fairly straightforward.
10:00 Pablo Carreno Busta vs Denis Shapovalov
Denis Shapovalov
Win Match
50 WIN
@-227
Lose
-50
I lean towards Denis Shapovalov. Carreño is still rebuilding after long injury issues and tends to need a lot of rhythm and long rallies, which is harder to impose on a quick Dubai hard court. Shapovalov is volatile but has the bigger serve and first-strike forehand, so if he keeps the double faults under control he can take the initiative in most points. In this format I trust his weapons a bit more, even if a dip in focus could always drag it into three sets.
10:00 Zizou Bergs vs Jenson Brooksby
Jenson Brooksby
Win Match
50 WIN
@-109
Win
46
I lean Jenson Brooksby, but it’s one of the trickier calls. Bergs has been playing a lot of matches and brings very solid hard-court form plus decent pop on serve and forehand. Brooksby, however, is an awkward opponent: he takes the ball early, redirects pace well and forces opponents to hit uncomfortable extra shots, which can really pay off in best-of-three. If his fitness holds and he’s close to his pre-layoff level, his awkward, chess-like style should just edge a tight match.
02:00 Los Angeles v Atlanta Drive
Los Angeles
50 WIN
@-120
Win
41
In the second half of Atlanta’s doubleheader, I slightly prefer Los Angeles Golf Club. Atlanta’s depth is real, but playing twice in one night increases the chance of a small drop in focus or execution, especially on the short-game complex where tiny errors swing holes. LA’s roster of Morikawa, Theegala, Rose, and Fleetwood gives them a very balanced mix of elite iron play and clutch putting. They’ve already pushed top teams in past TGL clashes, including a previous overtime thriller against Atlanta. With fresher legs, a sky-high ball-striking ceiling, and the ability to throw different looks in singles, this feels like the spot where LA can edge a narrow win over the champs.
Subtotal0
23 February 2026
22:00 Atlanta Drive v Boston Common
Atlanta Drive
50 WIN
@-105
Win
47
I lean toward Atlanta Drive GC here. They’re the reigning SoFi Cup champions and opened Season 2 by edging New York again, showing that their core of Thomas, Cantlay, Horschel, and Glover still knows how to convert tight holes under pressure in this format. Atlanta were also excellent in last year’s playoffs, going 7??"1 overall and repeatedly coming back late in matches, which is valuable in a 15-hole, points-based setup. Boston now has huge star power with Rory McIlroy, Matsuyama, Bradley, and Scott and finally broke through with their first franchise win this season, but they’re still less proven than Atlanta in closing out big TGL nights.
16:30 Quentin Halys vs Jack Draper
Jack Draper
Win Match
50 WIN
@-249
Win
20
I like Jack Draper here. His lefty serve, heavy forehand, and improved fitness have already made him one of the more dangerous young players on tour. These conditions suit him nicely when he’s playing proactively from the baseline. Halys has a strong serve and can fire a lot of aces himself, so he can certainly push this toward tiebreaks if he’s on. But assuming Draper stays healthy and keeps his return level high, his superior movement and baseline weight of shot should tilt the key points in his favor.
15:00 Felix Auger Aliassime vs Zhizhen Zhang
Felix Auger Aliassime
Win Match
50 WIN
@-454
Win
11
I clearly favour Félix Auger-Aliassime as top seed. Dubai’s medium-fast hard court really rewards his big first serve and aggressive baseline game. Coming in as the tournament’s highest-ranked player, he’ll be looking to set the tone early in the week. Zhang Zhizhen has the weapons to be dangerous on hard courts??"big serve, solid forehand??"and he’s definitely capable of patches where he troubles Félix. Over the full match, though, Auger-Aliassime’s superior return game, experience in ATP 500s, and slightly higher rally tolerance make him the more reliable pick.
02:00 Claressa Shields v Franchon Crews Dezurn
Claressa Shields
Win Fight
50 WIN
@-1999
Win
3
I clearly lean towards Claressa Shields in the rematch. She already beat Crews-Dezurn in both of their pro debuts back in 2016 and has since become an undefeated, multi-division, undisputed champion, with a style built on volume, speed, and elite defence rather than raw knockout power. Crews-Dezurn is tough, experienced, and coming up from super-middle, but at heavyweight she’s giving away speed and technical sharpness to a fighter who routinely outboxes world-class opponents over 10 rounds. In Detroit, in front of a home crowd, I expect Shields to control the distance, win most exchanges, and take a wide points decision.
Subtotal81
22 February 2026
14:45 Magical Kenya Open
Ewen Ferguson
50 WIN
@+2500
Lose
-50
At Karen Country Club, I like Ewen Ferguson to come out on top. He has built up plenty of experience in Kenya, with multiple made cuts and top-10 finishes at the Magical Kenya Open in recent years. He’s arriving off a solid run in the Middle East swing, including top-10 and top-25 finishes at events like the Qatar Masters.
14:30 Marbella Legends
Miguel Angel Jimenez
50 WIN
@+500
Lose
-50
For the Marbella Legends on the Legends Tour, I’ll go with Miguel Ángel Jiménez around Aloha Golf Club. The course is a strategic par-72 in Marbella’s Golf Valley that rewards precision irons and savvy course management rather than brute force, which is Jiménez’s wheelhouse at this stage of his career.
10:45 Honda LPGA Thailand
Jeeno Thitikul
50 WIN
@+350
Win
175
On home soil, I like world No. 1 Atthaya Thitikul to finally capture the Honda LPGA Thailand. She comes in off a monster 2025 season with multiple LPGA wins, the money title, and Player of the Year. She’s back at Siam Country Club as the top-ranked player in the world.
04:00 Sean Strickland v Anthony Hernandez
Sean Strickland
Win Fight
50 WIN
@+240
Win
120
03:00 Mario Barrios v Ryan Garcia
Ryan Garcia
Win Fight
50 WIN
@-200
Win
25
Garcia has the faster hands and more one-punch explosiveness, and is the more settled champion. Over 12 rounds, I trust Garcia's experience, body work, and consistency to bank more rounds. In general, Ryan Garcia has a higher ceiling.
01:50 New Zealand PGA Championship
Tyler Hodge
50 WIN
@+8000
Lose
-50
I’ll side with defending champion Tyler Hodge to lift the New Zealand PGA again. He broke through for his biggest career win at this event in 2025, shooting -16 and holding off a strong chasing pack. That shows he can handle the pressure on home soil.
01:40 Jacobe Smith v Josiah Harrell
Jacobe Smith
Win Fight
50 WIN
@-277
Win
18
Amazing matchup, but I lean Jacobe Smith. Both guys are 11-0, but Smith already has big UFC reps with a Contender Series finish followed by two dominant wins. He’s shown nasty power combined with his high-level wrestling pedigree. Harrell’s comeback story after brain surgery is incredible, and he’s an all-action finisher, but he is stepping in on late notice for his long-delayed UFC debut. In a fight where both are used to bullying people, I trust Smith’s combination of size, wrestling, and Octagon experience just a bit more.
01:10 Zach Reese v Michel Pereira
Michel Pereira
Win Fight
50 WIN
@-149
Win
34
Michel Pereira is wildly entertaining and very dangerous early, but he’s also had inconsistent performances and some recent skid patches that raise questions about his direction at middleweight. Reese is a taller, rangier finisher with serious power, and at home in Texas he should be highly motivated to make a statement against a name opponent. I don't think he can survive the early chaos. I slightly favor the Brazilian fighter.
00:40 Chidi Njokuani v Carlos Leal
Chidi Njokuani
Win Fight
50 WIN
@+110
Lose
-50
00:10 Ode Osbourne v Alibi Idris
Alibi Idris
Win Fight
50 WIN
@-136
Win
37
00:10 Phil Rowe v Jean Paul Lebosnoyani
Phil Rowe
Win Fight
50 WIN
@+170
Lose
-50
00:10 Punahele Soriano v Ramiz Brahimaj
Ramiz Brahimaj
Win Fight
50 WIN
@-120
Lose
-50
Here I slightly favor Brahimaj. Soriano hits extremely hard and is always live for a first-round knockout, but his pace often drops after the opening storm and his defensive grappling has been exploitable. Brahimaj is a serious submission threat with a very aggressive wrestling and clinch game. If he can survive that early power, the fight starts to tilt heavily in his favor. I like his chances to drag this into grappling exchanges and find a choke or dominant control.
00:00 Bektemir Melikuziev v Sena Agbeko
Bektemir Melikuziev
Win Fight
50 WIN
@-1250
Win
4
Here I strongly favor Bektemir Melikuziev. “Bek Bully” is a 16??"1 super-middleweight with heavy hands and vicious body punching. His only loss (to Rosado) he has since avenged, and he’s been matched here in a showcase-type fight on the Barrios??"Garcia undercard. Agbeko is a brave, experienced spoiler who’s gone rounds with good names, but he’s also been stopped and doesn’t have the same one-shot power or technical polish. Over 10 rounds at T-Mobile, Melikuziev’s pressure, sharper combinations, and especially his body work should gradually break Agbeko down.
Subtotal113
21 February 2026
23:40 Alden Coria v Luis Gurule
Alden Coria
Win Fight
50 WIN
@-277
Win
18
This looks like a fun prospect fight, and I slightly favor Coria. Stylistically, he’s more of a wrestling-first, control-heavy fighter who can bank rounds with takedowns and top control. Gurule is a dangerous puncher with decent volume, but that often leaves openings for level changes and reactive shots. In a three-rounder, I think Coria’s ability to dictate where the fight happens and lock up minutes on the mat makes the difference.
22:40 Jordan Leavitt v Yadier DelValle
Jordan Leavitt
Win Fight
50 WIN
@+325
Win
162
22:10 Juliana Miller v Carli Judice
Carli Judice
Win Fight
50 WIN
@-714
Win
7
I’ll go with Carli Judice in the women’s flyweight opener. Miller has dangerous submissions and a relentless ground-and-pound style when she gets on top, but she’s also been hit a lot on the feet and struggles when she can’t secure early takedowns. Judice is the cleaner striker with higher volume and better footwork, and most breakdowns see this as a classic striker vs. grappler matchup where the striker has a slight edge over three rounds. If Carli keeps it standing and manages distance, I think her output and cleaner boxing win a decision.
19:00 David Allen v Karim Berredjem
David Allen
Win Fight
50 WIN
@-5000
Win
1
I like Dave Allen in this one. He’s the far more proven heavyweight, coming off a tough points loss to big puncher Arslanbek Makhmudov but also a huge KO win over Johnny Fisher in 2025 that showed he still carries serious power and resilience at this level. Berredjem is a French journeyman with a very mixed record (around 12??"10, few KOs) who’s lost three of his last five and is stepping up in class on a big DAZN card in Nottingham. If Allen is in reasonable shape and disciplined, his experience, power, and higher ceiling should be enough to walk Berredjem down and either force a late stoppage or win clearly on the cards.
18:00 Valencia vs Real Madrid
Real Madrid
Money Line
50 WIN
@-136
Win
37
I favour Real Madrid. They come in with the deepest roster in Europe, a dominant ACB record, and a size advantage inside with Tavares and Poirier that Valencia usually struggle to match over 40 minutes. Valencia can absolutely be dangerous if they control tempo and get hot from three with guys like Jones and Inglis, but they’ve tended to suffer when dragged into Madrid’s physical half-court game and pounded on the glass. In a neutral-court Cup setting, I still expect Madrid’s depth, rebounding, and higher offensive ceiling to show, probably pulling away in the second half.
08:35 Western Force v Blues
Blues
To Win
50 WIN
@-303
Win
17
I favour the Blues here. The Force were blown away 56??"24 by the Brumbies in Round 1, fading badly in the heat and showing issues in defence and discipline that won’t be fixed overnight. The Blues, by contrast, are recent Super Rugby champions (2024) and bring a huge, athletic pack plus a backline that can punish any missed tackle or soft exit. They’ll be very motivated in this showcase game at Joondalup. If the Force can’t dominate the collisions and slow the Blues’ ball, the visitors’ physicality and accuracy should translate into a comfortable win.
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06:05 Highlanders v Chiefs
Chiefs
To Win
50 WIN
@-303
Win
17
This is close, but I slightly lean to the Chiefs. The Highlanders are buzzing after their 25??"23 upset of the Crusaders in Round 1, which showed big improvement in composure and defence under Jamie Joseph. The Chiefs, though, come in fresh from a bye with one of the most balanced squads in the competition, a powerful pack, and game-breaking backs like their All Blacks??"laden backline. Under the roof in Dunedin, the game should be fast. In that kind of high-tempo shootout, the Chiefs’ greater attacking depth gives them a tiny edge, even away from home.
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Subtotal259
20 February 2026
21:30 Mike De Decker vs Marvin Kraft
Mike De Decker
Win Match 2-way
50 WIN
@-303
Win
17
De Decker is the rightful favourite here. He’s been climbing the rankings with solid ProTour performances and regular EuroTour qualifications, and his scoring power has noticeably improved over the last couple of years. Kraft has done very well just to qualify and will treat this as a free swing, but he’s stepping up against a player who is now used to this stage level. Over a race to six legs, De Decker’s higher floor and greater experience should carry him over the line.
20:00 Biarritz v Vannes
Vannes
To Win
50 WIN
@-188
Win
26
Here I clearly lean RC Vannes. They’re top of the table with 16 wins from 20 and a huge positive points difference, and they’ve just kept Carcassonne scoreless in their last outing, underlining how solid their defence is. Biarritz are hovering just above the relegation scrap with a negative points difference and have been inconsistent, especially against the league’s best sides. Even away at Aguiléra, Vannes’ structured attack and strong defence make them deserved favourites.
20:00 Dirk van Duijvenbode vs Adam Gawlas
Dirk van Duijvenbode
Win Match 2-way
50 WIN
@-175
Lose
-50
I lean toward Dirk van Duijvenbode. When healthy and focused, he’s an absolute scoring machine, capable of reeling off legs in 12??"15 darts and suffocating opponents under relentless 140s. Gawlas is talented and still developing, but his results at this level have been inconsistent, and he can be vulnerable if dragged into a pacey game. Provided Dirk keeps his composure and doesn’t let missed doubles spiral, his raw firepower gives him the edge.
19:30 Krzysztof Ratajski vs Mickey Mansell
Krzysztof Ratajski
Win Match 2-way
50 WIN
@-188
Win
26
Ratajski is the natural pick, especially on Polish soil. He’s been the standard-bearer for Polish darts for years, a former top-16 player with multiple EuroTour deep runs, and the crowd will give him a huge lift. Mansell is gritty and can drag matches into a scrappy doubling contest, but his scoring ceiling is lower and he rarely dominates on the treble like Ratajski can. If Krzysztof handles the pressure of playing at home, his superior class should show over six legs.
19:00 Damon Heta vs Connor Scutt
Damon Heta
Win Match 2-way
50 WIN
@-136
Lose
-50
I favour Damon Heta fairly clearly. He’s one of the most solid all-round players on the circuit right now, combining strong 180 numbers with good finishing and a calm stage presence. He’s been a regular in EuroTour final sessions. Scutt is a live underdog who’s steadily improving and can post good floor averages, but he’s not yet as battle-hardened in these EuroTour environments. If Heta plays anywhere near his typical level, he should control the scoring phases and win by a couple of legs.
18:30 Aurillac v Soyaux Angouleme
Aurillac
To Win
50 WIN
@-400
Win
12
I’ll go with Aurillac at home. Soyaux-Angoulême are a bit higher in the table, but both sides sit in that crowded middle cluster, and Aurillac’s home form at Jean-Alric is usually what keeps them safe every season. Soyaux have the worst points difference among the mid-table sides and can leak tries when put under sustained pressure. In a tight, relegation-zone??"style battle, I trust Aurillac’s energy and forward pack at home to nick it.
18:30 Dax v Provence
Provence
To Win
50 WIN
@-124
Lose
-50
This one is trickier, but I still lean Provence Rugby. They’re firmly in the playoff spots with 14 wins and a big positive points difference, while Dax are lower down despite an interesting stat line (more or less mid-table on points but with a small positive scoring differential). Dax at Maurice Boyau are always stubborn and have just beaten Aurillac, so they can definitely push this close. Over 80 minutes, though, Provence’s deeper squad and more powerful attack give them a slight edge, even away.
18:00 Agen v Valence Romans
Valence Romans 8.50
Handicap
50 WIN
@-109
Lose
-50
I slightly favour Valence Romans even away from home. They’re up in the top four with 14 wins from 20 and a positive points difference, while Agen sit in mid-table with 9 wins and a much thinner margin on the scoreboard. Valence have been very efficient in tight matches and have already shown they can win on the road against comparable opposition. If they handle the physical battle up front at Armandie, their more consistent attack should just edge it.
18:00 Sebastian Korda vs Casper Ruud
Casper Ruud
Win Match
50 WIN
@-109
Lose
-50
This one is tight, but I slightly lean towards Casper Ruud. The head-to-head is basically even, and both have had decent recent results, but Ruud has put together more consistent seasons overall, with deeper runs at big events and a very reliable baseline level. Korda’s flatter, more aggressive game is dangerous on a court like Delray’s and he’s already shown strong form this week, so he absolutely has upset potential if he serves well and red-lines off the ground. Over the course of a best-of-three, though, Ruud’s discipline, physicality, and higher average level point-to-point give him a small edge, especially if this turns into a longer, more physical match.
18:00 Wessel Nijman vs Thomas Lovely
Wessel Nijman
Win Match 2-way
50 WIN
@-499
Win
10
I like Wessel Nijman in this one. He’s been in excellent form on the ProTour, already winning a Players Championship this season and showing he can average around the ton regularly. Lovely had a big moment with his recent upset win over Peter Wright and is clearly improving, but he’s still a step behind Nijman in terms of consistency and big-match experience. If Wessel finds his usual scoring gear, his heavier scoring and growing confidence should get the job done.
17:15 5:15 Dundalk
Eclat
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@+187
Lose
-50
This looks a nice opportunity for Eclat. She ran a very solid race on debut over this same course and distance, finishing third in a decent fillies’ maiden and shaping as though she’d improve plenty for the experience. Her pedigree (by Kingman for Juddmonte) and the booking of Colin Keane point to upside, whereas market leader Astronomically keeps finding one too good and is becoming a bit expensive to follow despite her series of seconds here. With natural progression from that debut run, Eclat has a good chance to step forward and get off the mark.
16:13 4:10 Dundalk
Go Out
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@+120
Lose
-50
In this 7f maiden I slightly prefer Go Out. He’s the top-rated horse in the field and comes back into maiden company after two good second places in competitive handicaps over this track, showing he handles the surface and can finish off strongly. His recent runs suggest he doesn’t need to improve much, if at all, to win a race of this nature. Je Suis Célèbre and Land of the Giants are live dangers, but Go Out’s consistent Dundalk form and return to this easier level swing it his way.
15:43 3:40 Dundalk
Sir Les Patterson
Daily Racing
50 WINNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 2.38 used instead of 2.00 takenBOG
@+137
Win
68
I like Sir Les Patterson here. He’s a high-class sprinter for this grade, coming in off a dominant course-and-distance win in November and another strong 6f effort here before that, so we know he’s very effective on this Polytrack and at this trip. The handicapper has nudged him up, but his recent ratings suggest he’s still well capable of defying the rise in this smaller field. Main dangers for me are Little Queenie and Apache Outlaw, but Sir Les Patterson’s proven C&D class and recent form make him the one to beat.
15:30 Dave Chisnall vs Darryl Pilgrim
Dave Chisnall
Win Match 2-way
50 WIN
@-124
Lose
-50
Chisnall is one of the best European Tour players of the last decade and has multiple ET titles, so he starts as a heavy favourite. His scoring power??"especially the barrage of 180s??"can simply blow qualifiers away if his doubles are even average. Pilgrim is no mug and has earned his way here, but he’ll almost certainly need his very top level and a poor day from Chizzy to nick this. Over a short format, the upset is possible, but the most likely scenario is Chisnall dominating the scoring and winning comfortably.
15:00 Elina Svitolina vs Coco Gauff
Coco Gauff
Win Match
50 WIN
@-136
Lose
-50
I slightly favour Coco Gauff. She’s been rolling this week, crushing Eala in the quarters and generally serving very well while dictating with her forehand whenever she gets a short ball. Svitolina’s counterpunching, court coverage, and experience in big matches always make her a tough out, but she’s been playing longer, more physical matches and is more reliant on drawing errors rather than hitting through Gauff. Over two or three sets in these medium-fast conditions, Gauff’s superior serve plus more explosive baseline power give her a few more ways to win.
15:00 Jermaine Wattimena vs Miroslaw Grudziecki
Jermaine Wattimena
Win Match 2-way
50 WIN
@-999
Win
5
Wattimena should be a sizeable favorite. He’s a long-time ProTour regular with a fast, high-tempo style, lots of European Tour mileage, and a strong record against qualifiers. Grudziecki, as a Polish qualifier, will feed off the home crowd and can absolutely hit a purple patch, but he doesn’t yet have the same depth of experience in these races to six. If Jermaine keeps the pressure on with his rapid 60s and 140s, the difference in level should show.
14:30 Andrew Gilding vs Jeffrey De Graaf
Andrew Gilding
Win Match 2-way
50 WIN
@-136
Win
37
Gilding has the edge thanks to his higher peak and recent major pedigree. He’s a former European champion and still posts very solid ProTour numbers, with that methodical, heavy-scoring style that suits best-of-11 legs. De Graaf has plenty of experience and can absolutely produce 100+ legs, but his results at this level have been more inconsistent. Over six winning legs, I trust Gilding’s temperament and mid-to-high-90 average more often than not.
13:30 Luke Woodhouse vs Carl Sneyd
Luke Woodhouse
Win Match 2-way
50 WIN
@-303
Win
17
Woodhouse is the clear favourite on paper. He’s had multiple good runs on the EuroTour and ProTour and has tightened up both his scoring and his doubles over the last couple of seasons. Sneyd comes in from the Tour Card qualifier and is still relatively untested on big PDC stages, which can show up in the first couple of legs. If Woodhouse starts well and doesn’t let the crowd swing it, his higher average level should carry him.
13:00 Jessica Pegula vs Amanda Anisimova
Jessica Pegula
Win Match
50 WIN
@-153
Win
32
This feels tight, but I lean Jessica Pegula. Anisimova has been excellent, taking out defending champion Mirra Andreeva with aggressive first-strike tennis. At her best, she can absolutely hit Pegula off the court in patches. Pegula, though, is one of the most solid hard-court players on tour, returning extremely well and making very few unforced errors, which tends to expose any dips in Anisimova’s shot selection or consistency. In a pressure semi-final, I trust Pegula’s steadier baseline level and better decision-making on big points just a bit more, even if she has to ride out some hot streaks from Anisimova.
08:35 Waratahs v Fijian Drua
Waratahs
To Win
50 WIN
@-588
Win
9
I clearly favour the Waratahs. They just smashed the Reds 36??"12 in Round 1, showing a very sharp attack and strong second-half fitness, and they sit top of the early table because of that performance. The Drua are always dangerous with broken-field running and can strike from anywhere, but historically they’ve been less effective away from Fiji and can concede a lot of penalties and metres when put under set-piece pressure. With form, confidence, and home advantage on their side, the Tahs look more likely to control this over 80 minutes.
06:05 Hurricanes v Moana Pasifika
Hurricanes
To Win
50 WIN
@-1999
Win
3
I lean towards the Hurricanes at home. They’re fresh after a bye and have a backline stacked with pace and creativity, which usually thrives on the fast track in Wellington. Moana Pasifika come in with confidence after an opening-round win and bring plenty of physicality, but they’ve generally struggled to sustain 80-minute performances away from home in past seasons. Over time, the Canes’ superior depth and kicking game should tilt territory and possession enough for a home win.
01:00 Taylor Fritz vs Rafael Jodar
Taylor Fritz
Win Match
50 WIN
@-333
Win
15
I favour Taylor Fritz here. He’s the top seed in Delray and a two-time defending champion at this tournament, with a big serve and heavy first-strike tennis that works perfectly on these quick outdoor U.S. hard courts. Jódar comes in on a high after earning his first ATP main-draw win and has been excellent lately against Americans, but this is a big step up in class against a Top-10 player who knows this event inside out. Unless Fritz has a real off day on serve, his firepower and experience in these conditions should carry him in straight sets, though Jódar has enough confidence to keep parts of the match close.
Subtotal-173
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