Momverse

The Bills are in peak mid-season form with Josh Allen playing at an MVP level. While Houston's defense is formidable, their inability to sustain drives with Davis Mills puts too much pressure on their defense to play perfect football. Buffalo wins comfortably.

Houston's recent wins were by 7 and 3 points against weak teams (Jags/Titans). Buffalo is a significant step up in class. Expect the Bills to pull away in the second half as Houston's defense tires. Predicted score: Bills 27, Texans 17.

TNF games often start sluggishly. While Buffalo can score, Houston's elite defense and slow-paced offense (running Mixon to hide Mills) will shorten the game. A 24-13 or 27-16 type scoreline keeps this Under.

Buffalo Bills by 7??"12 points. The Bills' superior offense, led by Josh Allen, will separate from the backup-QB Texans in the second half, covering the spread but limited by Houston's stingy pass defense.

Houston's offense, led by Davis Mills (likely starting for injured Stroud), has struggled to generate points consistently, posting 16 points last week. While their run game can exploit the Bills' 31st-ranked run defense, the Bills' high-pressure defense and Mills' limited ceiling will keep the Texans below the 20-point threshold.

Despite the Texans ranking Top 3 in points allowed, Buffalo's offense is peaking, scoring 44 points last week. Josh Allen's elite play, combined with his high rushing touchdown rate (10 this season), ensures consistent red-zone efficiency, guaranteeing the Bills clear the 23.5-point threshold on Thursday night.

UBB lacks the "strike power" (Penaud/UBB) to blow this game open. Without Lucu/Jalibert managing the game, UBB will likely struggle for fluidity. Pau has the cohesion at half-back to keep the scoreboard ticking and stay within a converted try.

Eubank's reach, height, and counter-punching style will neutralize Wagner's pressure. His high motivation after a controversial loss, combined with superior H2H tactics, ensures a Decision win by controlling distance and banking rounds.

Freeman's superior quality of opposition and tested endurance will overcome Bujlo's R1 finish tendency. Freeman will outlast the aggressive start and secure a TKO/KO in Round 2.

Naurdiev's extensive experience and 73% Takedown Defense will negate Loder's wrestling threats. Superior defense and calculated striking volume secure a narrow Decision win after three full rounds.

Almakhan's proven KO power and aggressive recent performance will stop Topuria's forward movement. He capitalizes on the striking advantage, securing a KO/TKO before Topuria can implement his grappling.

Ulanbekov's reach, height, and Dagestani grappling will overcome Horiguchi's striking. High-volume takedown attempts will secure positional control and ultimately, a close Unanimous Decision.

Almabaev's relentless chain wrestling and pressure will exploit Perez's recent vulnerability to grappling. Superior endurance and control time will frustrate the veteran, earning Almabaev a clear Unanimous Decision.

Almabaev's fighting style is geared towards accumulation of control time and takedowns, not highlight-reel knockouts. His recent performance has been built on this strategy, resulting in decision wins over established names like Matheus Nicolau. Perez, while powerful, is too defensively sound to be quickly finished by Almabaev's striking. The determining factor will be Almabaev's persistent wrestling and superior endurance over the full 15 minutes. Almabaev will maintain back control or top control long enough to sweep the scorecards, resulting in a Unanimous Decision.