arniehi

US Sports. Occasionally Soccer.

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arniehi's Tips

29th March 2024
12:30 Bristol City v Leicester

Leicester

50 WIN

Leicester hold a good away record, having won 13 of 19 games on the road. With 25 wins from their 38 games thus far on the season, they have a very good chance against 14th place Bristol City, who've lost 17 games this year, including 8 at home.
15:00 Barnsley v Cambridge Utd

Barnsley

50 WIN

Barnsley may have been less than optimal over their last 5 games, but they're still going strong in 5th and will be looking to push for an automatic promotion spot as the season reaches its final stretch. Cambridge on the other hand are hoping to avoid relegation, but 4 losses from their last 5 has gives the home team a strong edge on recent form. While the home side have been a little better on their travels, Cambridge have been woeful, losing 12 of 19. 
15:00 Cardiff v Sunderland

Cardiff

50 WIN

Cardiff look an excellent price to beat Sunderland. They've won 9 of 19 games at home and 16 of their 38 for the season, but what is really promising is their recent form. They've won 4 of their last 6, and are unbeaten in their last 4 at home, winning 3. Sunderland have only avoided defeat once in their last 6, picking up a draw, and have lost their last 4 on the road.
15:00 Forest Green v Stockport

Stockport

50 WIN

Second takes on bottom in this fixture, with Stockport a warm order to get the win. Forest Green Rovers have lost 22 of their 39 games this year, including 12 of their 20 at home. Stockport have picked up 20 wins from 38 games and, if results go their way, would find themselves go ahead of Mansfield in to top spot. They've got solid enough away form, with 8 wins from their 18 games. Not the best of prices, but certainly the most likely result.
15:00 Norwich v Plymouth

Norwich

50 WIN

Plymouth's early season form looks a long way behind them and a big reason is their away form, where they're particularly poor. They've lost 10 of 19 road fixtures, only winning 2, and while they've avoided defeats recently, they'll likely find things more difficult against a Norwich side who have been scoring freely at home in recent weeks, picking up 4 wins from their most recent 4 home games and finding the net 14 times (conceded 3) in that time. With 13 of their 18 wins on the season coming at home, they should look to capitalise and solidify their playoff chances with a win here.
15:00 Peterborough v Carlisle

Peterborough

50 WIN

Peterborough are, unsurprisingly, one of the biggest and shortest favourites of the weekend. Still, 1.3 is close to exactly where I would've had them price wise for this and with that in mind they're worth adding as a selection. Sitting equal with Barnsley on points, and hoping to push for an automatic promotion spot with at least one game in hand on those above them, they've won 4 of their last 5 and shouldn't really have any problems with Carlisle. For their part, bottom of the pile Carlisle are doomed for relegation. They've lost 25 games of their 39 played, and 14 of those have come on their travels (from 19). Expect a dominant home win.
15:00 Preston v Rotherham

Preston

50 WIN

Preston meet rock bottom Rotherham, who've lost their last 4 away from home, conceding 16 in the process. They've lost 5 of their last 6 overall, while Preston's recent form has seen them pick up 3 wins and 2 draws from 6. Against a Rotherham team who's only picked up points from 4 of their 19 away games (all draws), 1.5 looks a very solid price about the home team.
15:00 Wigan v Burton Albion

Wigan

50 WIN

Wigan have done well to overcome their points deduction and a lot of that is based on their form at home. They've won 12 of 20 games in the DW, including 3 of their last 4 (drawn 1). They welcome a Burton Albion team who are 1-1-2 in their recent travels but even more concerning is their 5 losses from their last 6 overall. Stuck in a relegation battle - somewhere you'd be forgiven for imagining Wigan would've been, the home team is a solid option at evens when I would've had them closer to 1.8 or shorter. 
15:00 York v Chesterfield

Chesterfield

50 WIN

Surprisingly generous odds for a Chesterfield team that is dominant this season. They've won 30 of their 41 games now, hitting 100 goals in the process, and their away record is 12 wins from 20. While that's nowhere near as impressive as they are at home, they face a York team who have lost 7 of their 20 home games, conceding 31 goals in that time. Chesterfield are top of the away table despite dropping points, but those losses have predominantly come on the road and they were dominant in the reverse fixture, running out 4-0 winners. I would've expected this much closer to even money so 2.3 is a solid price.
20:00 Watford v Leeds

Leeds

50 WIN

3 wins and a draw in their last 4 away fixtures, as well as 5 wins from their last 6 overall, puts Leeds as strong favourites for this. Watford are winless in their last 4 at home, having lost 3 of those, and have lost more games than they've won at Vicarage Road this season. Leeds can't afford to slip up as things are so tight at the top between themselves, Leicester, and Ipswich, and may well have been leapfrogged by both going in to this fixture. I expect a decent response and solid away win.

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