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I love NH racing, especially the big handicap chases, not too keen on the flat (turf) and rarely bet on the AW.


 


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Jan 8

21:45

Lanzarote Hurdle - 15 Year Trends

Horse Racing



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The Lanzarote Hurdle takes place at Kempton, the race is a handicap and is run over the distance of 2 miles & 5 furlongs.

For the purpose of the 15 year trends we are actually going back 17 years to 1996 as the 2001 & 2009 races didn't take place.

The 2006 race will be included despite the race being run at Carlisle as Kempton was closed for refurbishment, there were joint winners that year too and both will be used, so in effect we have 16 winners to use for the trends.

There are 29 horses declared for the race at the 5 day declaration stage -

000-233 Brampour (IRE) 28 6 11-12 P F Nicholls 157
1/4U21-1 Bear's Affair (IRE) 35 7 11-7 N J Henderson 152
1211-32 Black Thunder (FR) 49 6 11-0 P F Nicholls 145
01F-000 Son of Flicka 35 9 10-9 D McCain Jnr 140
20-0311 Loose Chips 17 7 10-9 C E Longsdon 140
12/141-2 Oscara Dara (IRE) 26 8 10-9 N J Henderson 140
006-001 Bourne 16 7 10-9 D McCain Jnr 140
2112 Dursey Sound (IRE) 49 5 10-8 Jonjo O'Neill 139
1F1110- Open Hearted 302 6 10-4 N J Henderson 135
424/110 Simarian (IRE) 29 8 10-2 Evan Williams 133
1/206P-1 Araldur (FR) 35 9 10-2 A King 133
0P26-0U Topolski (IRE) 42 7 10-2 D W P Arbuthnot 133
11-1102 Victor Leudorum (IRE) 161 6 10-1 C J Mann 132
211-6R0 Captain Sunshine 55 7 10-1 Miss E C Lavelle 132
13P-PP2 Oscar Prairie (IRE) 7 8 9-13 W J Greatrex 130
3421-10 Lamb Or Cod (IRE) 49 6 9-13 P J Hobbs 130
3P2216 Grafite 21 8 9-12 A Middleton 129
5-110 Un Bon P'tit Gars (FR) 57 5 9-12 Nick Williams 129
16/134-4 Hit The Headlines (IRE) 15 7 9-12 C F Swan 118
22211U Quaddick Lake (IRE) 17 10 9-11 J Scott 128
05-0000 Secret Edge 17 5 9-11 A King 128
60P-520 Rigidity 21 6 9-10 Tim Vaughan 127
51-5322 Ubaltique (FR) 33 5 9-10 D McCain Jnr 127
0-31212 Trackmate 99 7 9-9 H J Evans 126
11/34-61 Buck Magic (IRE) 57 7 9-9 N P Mulholland 126
110-545 Sircozy (IRE) 28 7 9-7 G L Moore 124
110610 Romeo Americo (IRE) 37 6 9-7 J W Mullins 124
03-152 Uncle Jimmy (IRE) 26 6 9-7 P J Hobbs 124
4/32-105 Natural Spring 63 8 9-7 Miss S Smith 124

Age

All of the 16 winners were either aged 5, 6 or 7, but 10 of those winners were aged 6

2 points for a 6yo = Brampour, Black Thunder, Open Hearted, Victor Leudorum, Lamb Or Cod, Rigidity, Romeo Americo & Uncle Jimmy

1 point for a 5/7yo = Bear's Affair, Loose Chips, Bourne, Dursey Sound, Topolski, Captain Sunshine, Un Bon P'tit Gars, Hit The Headlines, Secret Edge, Ubaltique, Trackmate, Buck Magic & Sircozy

Last Completed Start

11 of the 16 winners finished in the first 3 on their last completed start, 8 of those won

2 points for a last time out winner = Bear's Affair, Loose Chips, Bourne, Araldur, Quaddick Lake & Buck Magic

1 point for a last time out 2nd/3rd = Brampour, Black Thunder, Oscara Dara, Dursey Sound, Victor Leudorum, Oscar Prairie, Ubaltique, Trackmate & Uncle Jimmy

Days since run

10 of the last 16 winners had their last run more than 3 weeks ago, the other 6 all ran within 3 weeks

1 point for 22 days or more = Brampour, Bear's Affair, Black Thunder, Son of Flicka, Oscara Dara, Dursey Sound, Open Hearted, Simarian, Araldur, Topolski, Victor Leudorum, Captain Sunshine, Lamb Or Cod, Un Bon P'tit Gars, Ubaltique, Trackmate, Buck Magic, Sircozy, Romeo Americo, Uncle Jimmy & Natural Spring

Official rating

14 of the 16 winners were rated less than 138
1 Point = Open Hearted, Simarian, Araldur, Topolski, Victor Leudorum, Captain Sunshine, Oscar Prairie, Lamb Or Cod, Grafite, Un Bon P'tit Gars, Hit The Headlines, Quaddick Lake, Secret Edge, Rigidity, Ubaltique, Trackmate, Buck Magic, Sircozy, Romeo Americo, Uncle Jimmy & Natural Spring

Weight

11 of the 16 winner had carried less than 11-00 to victory
1 Point = Son of Flicka, Loose Chips, Oscara Dara, Bourne, Dursey Sound, Open Hearted, Simarian, Araldur, Topolski, Victor Leudorum, Captain Sunshine, Oscar Prairie, Lamb Or Cod, Grafite, Un Bon P'tit Gars, Hit The Headlines, Quaddick Lake, Secret Edge, Rigidity, Ubaltique, Trackmate, Buck Magic, Sircozy, Romeo Americo, Uncle Jimmy & Natural Spring

Course form

11 of the last 16 winners had either won at the course or were having their first run there, the other 5 had never won there before
1 Point = Bear's Affair, Loose Chips, Oscara Dara, Bourne, Dursey Sound, Open Hearted, Simarian, Araldur, Topolski, Victor Leudorum, Captain Sunshine, Oscar Prairie, Lamb Or Cod, Grafite, Un Bon P'tit Gars, Rigidity, Ubaltique, Trackmate, Buck Magic, Sircozy & Romeo Americo

Total Scores


Victor Leudorum x 7
Buck Magic x 7

Open Hearted x 6
Araldur x 6
Lamb Or Cod x 6
Ubaltique x 6
Trackmate x 6
Romeo Americo x 6
Uncle Jimmy x 6

Bear's Affair x 5
Loose Chips x 5
Bourne x 5
Dursey Sound x 5
Topolski x 5
Captain Sunshine x 5
Un Bon P'tit Gars x 5
Rigidity x 5
Sircozy x 5

Brampour x 4
Black Thunder x 4
Oscara Dara x 4
Simarian x 4
Oscar Prairie x 4
Quaddick Lake x 4

Grafite x 3
Hit The Headlines x 3
Secret Edge x 3
Natural Spring x 3

Son of Flicka x 2

Conclusion

Both Victor Leudorum & Buck Magic get 7 points from the 6 trends, and they will be the selections and will be backed EW.

Victor Leudorum is available @ 20/1

Buck Magic is available @ 14/1


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Comments

by mooster100 on 12 January 2013 10:28

Absolute love these trends. Fantastic work as always bud lets hope its another trends winner to go with Monbeg Dude Welsh National :

edit  delete

by Micko70 on 12 January 2013 11:39

Cheers Mooster, good luck if following

edit  delete



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