OLBG Top Blogs

  • Betting on the 2016/17 NFL Season using The Underdog Theorem

    Callingnumber6 on 21 Sep at 14:12

    The Underdog Theorem (based on the work of Eddie Getz) works on the principle of parity in the NFL ie all teams over time should be equal. Having established a 'streak' (0-2 or 2-0) we establish a 'Portfolio' of teams who, once they enter the portfolio 'owe' us a payout. This seasons portfolio comprises the following teams: 2-0 teams New England (NEP) Pittsburgh (PIT) Baltimore (BAL) Houston (HOU) Denver (DEN) NY Giants (NYG) Minnesota (MIN) Philadelphia (PHI) 0-2 teams Miami (MIA) Buffalo (BUF) Cleveland (CLE) Jacksonville (JAX) Indianapolis (IND) Washington (WAS) New Orleans (NOS) Chicago (CHI) Whatever your view of individual sides the system is purely mechanical taking emotion out of betting. For example I follow the Jags and am surprised to see them 0-2 but there it is. Now the next step is to look at the schedules of all the teams and…

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  • Prelude Chase Trends (Updated 23rd September))

    Micko70 on 20 Sep at 21:56

    In this blog i am looking at the Prelude Chase, which takes place at Market Rasen on Saturday 24th of September. Firstly, we will look at all of the trends for the race, then i will do an update of the race at the overnight stage. I have looked at the last 10 years of this race, and looked at the following trends, Age Weight Recent Runs Last Run Year Runs Year Wins & Distance 5 day Prelude Chase Declarations PF-529 Shantou Flyer(59) 6 11-12 Rebecca Curtis 149 1151-0 Junction Fourteen(59) 7 11-10 Emma Lavelle 147 4F5-41 Croco Bay(34) 9 11-9 Ben Case 146 U1-651 Witness In Court(31) 9 11-8 Donald McCain 145 30902- Fox Appeal(175) 9 11-6 Emma Lavelle 143 0-6O11 Ballykan(41) 6 11-4 Nigel Twiston-Davies 141 3-22C3 Presenting Arms(41) 9 11-2 Harry Fry 139 3259-1 Father Edward(26) 7 11-1 David Pipe 138 3770F- Seefood(259) 9 10-13 Dr Richard Newland 136 65213 Dineur(82) 10 10-12 Peter Bowen 135 22P-F5 Cernunnos(41) 6 10-12 Tom George 135 214224 Roman Flight(10) 8 10-11 David Dennis 134 7-2U21 Wadswick Court(26) 8 10-10 Peter Bowen 133 0P131 Princeton Royale(28) 7 10-10 Neil King 133 11111 Gowanauthat(21) 8 10-6 Charlie Mann 129 42PP-1 Vintage Vinnie(18) 7 10-6 Rebecca Curtis 129 02-323 Anteros(92) 8 9-12 Sophie Leech 121 Age 8…

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  • NFL 2016 Week 3: Preview, Tips and Betting Advice

    Gman84 on 21 Sep at 21:23

    Another NFL week is in the record books and as that one passes the next is right around the corner. It still feels as unpredictable as ever but we are starting to see some hints and ideas on who is better than we all might have thought and who is letting down expectations. It’s time to turn our attention to Week 3 and see what is in store for us. Last Weeks Results: Straight pick: 7-9 Vs Spread: 6-10 Season To Date Results: Straight picks: 19-13 Vs Spread: 17-15 A very tough week as a fair few games went totally the opposite of how I’d expected and a few let downs (I’m looking at you Detroit!) from originally promising positions. The acca wasn’t even close although the Dolphins came within half a point of pulling off the recommended…

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  • Horse Racing Trends - Issue 4 - 20 to 26 September 2016

    Robmull on 19 Sep at 16:30

    The purpose of this blog is to provide trends based information that will hopefully assist readers to identify value and profitable wagers throughout the week. Although it is highly unlikely that all of the trends detailed below will prove profitable to follow immediately, many of the statistics should be worth noting for consideration in the future. However, in my opinion, the data can be used to produce a list of potential candidates that can then be assessed further through the use of form study, race and ground conditions, plus any draw/pace bias, etc, to identify likely winners and hopefully profitable bets. My intention is to update this blog on a daily basis, with information that will generally relate to the following day’s race meetings, so even if a reader finds nothing to interest them on a specific day, there may be…

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  • 9 Sports Betting Mistakes That Will Kill Your Profits

    nors on 20 Sep at 15:35

    We asked OLBG members for their most common betting mistake. From those and other answers we edited and collated the following blog. If bettors follow member’s advice then we are sure that losses will be reduced. Support Your Team Don’t Back Them 1. Do not solely have a bet on your team because you support them and have followed them since you were in short trousers. Your judgement down to your love for your club will be clouded. Where others saw terrible defending you will give your centre half the benefit of the doubt, when your main striker can’t hit a barn door you will put it down to him being unlucky. Scream, holler, rant about your team but don’t just back them with hard earned cash out of a sense of loyalty and because your mates are all betting on…

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  • The Southampton Perspective - Saints vs Crystal Palace Betting Preview and Tips

    danbradley on 21 Sep at 16:27

    Southampton vs Crystal Palace After a good week all round, Saints will be hoping to extend their run of wins, and run of wins at St Marys by progressing in the League Cup. It gives another chance for Puel to rotate his side, but with the promising form shown in the last couple of matches it may be wiser to stick with a similar spine to the side that beat Swansea and Sparta Prague in the last week, rather than risking making changes and ending the club's upturn in form. Palace themselves are going through something of a revival having started the season poorly, but several solid additions towards the end of the transfer window has seen confidence rise and results improve. Whether either side looks to disrupt the balance of their newly in-form teams could determine which way this tie…

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  • College Football Week Four: Clemson face daunting trip to Atlanta

    undertherobe on 21 Sep at 21:28

    So week four is here already and after three weeks of action, teams are starting to build a body of work that makes it easier for us to establish their likely performance level. After a losing week previously, it was back to winning ways last week as the blog went 2-1 including North Dakota State’s upset win in Iowa (I took the +14.5 as the markets went up with barely any time to spare). This week’s blog starts early as Clemson roll into Atlanta for their ACC opener against Georgia Tech and it’s another excellent week of action ahead, as four matchups pit two AP top 25 teams. Underdog of the Week Given how Louisville have started the season, the CLEMSON TIGERS have a potential playoff eliminator on tap next week. But the reality is that a trip to face the GEORGIA…

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