Jan 31Goalscorer Odds - Stop Losing Money Backing The Wrong Players In The Wrong Places
Home and away form is one of the biggest considerations when betting on football, Stoke are often a great bet at home but a dreadful bet away, backed up by their 21 home points this season and their 9 away points. I like stats when there are strong reasons for those stats, Stoke’s pitch is a very narrow giving them an advantage from set pieces (from which they are well drilled) and there is also the famous 12th man for Stoke, their home crowd.
So what about this season? Who are the players to back for goals at home and who should we be punting on away from home?
At the time of writing here are the top goalscorers at home:
And here are the top goalscorers away from home:
Now some of those players seem decent bets home and away, Van Persie, Suarez and Demba Ba all have similar stats wherever they play, in fact the former two players actually have better ratios away from home.
Some of the more startling inclusions are:
Adam Le Fondre
Le Fondre has scored 10 goals this season and 8 of those have come at home despite limited appearances. Considering his tendency to come off the bench to score he probably appeals most as a last goalscorer bet when Reading are at home.
Bale clearly gets more space to play away from White Hart Lane when teams are less likely to park the bus or double up on him, 8 of his 10 goals have come away from home so despite having the reputation as a bit of a softy he looks to relish playing away from home.
Mata seems to have improved again this season and he has so far scored 9 goals in the league, 7 of which have come away from home. He is the sort of player who probably attracts plenty of goalscorer bets as he’ll never be the favourite (and you can often rely on Torres not to score) but the stats show punters at Stamford Bridge could be wasting their money.
This one really surprises me as Sunderland have a reputation as being a home team. They’ve only scored 13 goals on the road and Fletcher has more than half of those with 7 of his 10 goals this season so far coming away from home. Sunderland will often be a big price on the road and that could mean Fletcher is value to score in his away matches.
There are plenty of other interesting players on that list but those seem the ones really worth highlighting to make my point.
These sorts of stats are reflected in other leagues too, in the Championship no one has scored more home goals than Glenn Murray for Crystal Palace (16) yet he has managed just 6 away from home. Meanwhile two thirds of Thomas Ince’s 15 goals for Blackpool have come on the road. In League One Lucas Akins is one of those players who scores many more away from home (7/9) whilst in League Two Gillingham’s Danny Kedwell has netted 10 league goals with just one of those coming on his travels.
Where To Find This Info
A great resource for football stats in general and in particular the difference in player form home and away check out WhoScored.com. The stats above show how important home and away form is to players, not just teams.
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|04/08/15 06:23:55||© 2002-2015 OLBG, part of Invendium Ltd|