Improving Your Betting Through Research |
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Bookmakers & Betting
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Improving Your Betting Through ResearchThe most useful weapon in a punter’s arsenal is information and knowledge and generally those punters who have the most information will be the most successful.Research, Research and More Research
Sports Stats Websites
Much of your research is going to be done through a sports stats website. For horse racing punters this is most likely to be something like the Racing Post or Timeform, for football or other team sports many bookies such as Bet365 have an extensive stats section on their website where as shortlist of bets can be narrowed down. You should use these types of website to make some initial selections that you would strongly fancy if all or most circumstances are in their favour. Then to find out about those other external circumstances you may have to extend your research to other sites.
Sports News Websites
Although a lot of the content may not be helpful to you, it is worth monitoring a collection of sports news websites for information that might relate to your potential bets. You might find some early manager comments or team news that affect your thinking or a trainer quote for a big race might tell you that a horse has had a setback or has been working particularly well.
Trainer Websites
The official websites of the top trainers can be particularly informative when planning a decent bet on a horse. They vary in how much information they provide (if any) but most will contain some sort of information on future runners and/or comments on recent runs. Either way you can learn something you wouldn’t have heard about elsewhere. This is particularly the case if a horse ran particularly poorly last time out, is returning from an absence, is trying a new trip or is likely to be racing on ground that it has never faced before.
What To Do With This Information
Not every single bit of information you read should be taken at face value. Sometimes managers play mind games in their press conferences and some horse racing trainers overestimate or underestimate their horses’ chances. With all the information you gather you have to decide whether it is still worth a bet based on the balance of the information.
Take Your Time
When deciding on a bet sometimes it pays to take your time before placing your bet. Obviously you want to get the best price possible and that will play a large role in when you place your bets but it’s not necessarily the best practice to do your research and lace your bet in one session. Try taking at least 24 hours to mull over your bets and look again at the form and information before you place your bets. You’ll be surprised by how often you think slightly differently when you take a second look.
Don’t Forget Value!
Once you’ve decided what selections you fancy don’t forget to apply your usual value calculation. Just because you think a bet is very likely to win, it doesn’t mean you should necessarily place that bet. Something might be a good bet at evens but a poor bet at 1/2, remember that whatever the odds the selection still has the same chance of winning. Consider how often the market thinks the selection would win if the event was replayed over and over (an even money shot would be considered likely to win every other replay, an 8/1 shot would be considered likely to win once in every nine replays). Then consider how often you think the selection would win. If it’s more often than the market suggests that is a good value bet. The more difference between your estimate and the bookies’ estimate, the better the value (or worse if you think it would win less often). |
Comments from the Forum
monkeytennis
21 Aug 10:59
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<URL url="http://www.olbg.com/school/lesson89.htm"><s></s>Improving Your Betting Through Research<e></e></URL><br/>
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Think this Betting School lesson needs anything else added to it? Disagree with anything written above? Let us know your thoughts and your insight could be included in the OLBG Betting School!</r>
logical1
15 May 07:41
Its probably but where ?</t>
nors
15 May 08:02
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Over the years we have discussed handicapping/value on many threads<br/>
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Here are a couple of related threads that may be of interest, there are lots more<br/>
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<URL url="http://www.olbg.com/forum/topic6_47474.html">http://www.olbg.com/forum/topic6_47474.html</URL><br/>
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<URL url="http://www.olbg.com/forum/topic41_54414.html">http://www.olbg.com/forum/topic41_54414.html</URL><br/>
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<URL url="http://www.olbg.com/forum/topic6_16484_0.html">http://www.olbg.com/forum/topic6_16484_0.html</URL></r>
smartthinker
6 Nov 12:17