Horse Racing Discussion Thread: Monday 17th September - Sunday 23rd September

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Horse Racing Discussion Thread: Monday 17th September - Sunday 23rd September

Postby Zipster » Sun Sep 16, 2018 2:52 pm

Just over a month (20th Oct) until the end of the Jockey Championship, SDS is ahead with 124 winners at the time of writing, James Doyle (88), Oisin Murphy (87) and Jim Crowley (82) are the chasing pack but with just over a month to go surely SDS is uncatchable? He is currently 1/12 with the other three mentioned all 12/1.

Got to hand it to Ben Curtis, didn't realise he was so far up the list sitting in 6th place with 72 winners, that is a cracking effort and a real shame with his recent injury as he could have really pushed on as was in cracking form.

Ryan Moore has ridden just 59 winners this season and is on target for his lowest since 2003, what do people make of him this season? Only a 50% strike rate (10-20) on odds-on favourites is not good enough for me especially when you compare it to the likes of Atzeni (75%), Morris (75%), Havlin (79%), Dettori (69%) and Doyle (65%).

Of the 13 riders who have had 10+ rides on odds-on favourites this season, Moore sits 11th with only Buick and Murphy behind, you would expect a man of his stature to be producing better.

Good luck with the week ahead! :win:
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Re: Horse Racing Discussion Thread: Monday 17th September - Sunday 23rd September

Postby Arc Jimmy » Sun Sep 16, 2018 4:52 pm

Can't say I'm a Ryan Moore fan, he's hindered my wallet more than helping it over the years but A. P. O'Brien has had problems in the yard this year negating some of his usual successes albeit he's just Won English & Irish St Leger's quite cosily in the past 24 hours , was unaware of his % rate so far this year as well as he's very poor at selling racing even with the successes he's had down the years unlike Sister Hayley he looks uncomfortable & uninterested in front of a camera.

Am looking forward to the week ahead, especially Wednesday as I'm jumping on the train off to make the annual jaunt to the seaside for Yarmouth's BIG day namely the Listed Fillies John Musker Stakes.

Had a look at 5 day declarations & looks quite a weak renewal, Chain Of Dasies running off 110 top rated albeit giving lumps away to Godolphin's 3 year old Winter Lightning running off 109, Dettori looks like he's chosen Yarmouth to Sandown, he'll be my jockey I'll follow on the day, probably have 4 rides & grab a couple of winners.

Wednesday also features the Sea Deer handicap, he's a standing dish at the course after winning handicaps on consecutive days in the late 1990's, if my memory serves me right, he'll be 29 or 30 years old will get paraded before the race & being a nostalgic old git will get a warm reception from myself.

Good luck to members this week, sounds like being a North / South divide going wise some wet & windy stuff on it's way.

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Re: Horse Racing Discussion Thread: Monday 17th September - Sunday 23rd September

Postby The Executioner » Mon Sep 17, 2018 9:33 am

2.30 Hexham - Cool Valley a two time ptp winner maybe some value @33/1 & 25's in places in what looks a very modest contest

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Re: Horse Racing Discussion Thread: Monday 17th September - Sunday 23rd September

Postby Zipster » Mon Sep 17, 2018 10:03 am

Am looking forward to the week ahead, especially Wednesday as I'm jumping on the train off to make the annual jaunt to the seaside for Yarmouth's BIG day namely the Listed Fillies John Musker Stakes.

Had a look at 5 day declarations & looks quite a weak renewal, Chain Of Dasies running off 110 top rated albeit giving lumps away to Godolphin's 3 year old Winter Lightning running off 109, Dettori looks like he's chosen Yarmouth to Sandown, he'll be my jockey I'll follow on the day, probably have 4 rides & grab a couple of winners.

Wednesday also features the Sea Deer handicap, he's a standing dish at the course after winning handicaps on consecutive days in the late 1990's, if my memory serves me right, he'll be 29 or 30 years old will get paraded before the race & being a nostalgic old git will get a warm reception from myself.

Good luck mate, used to be a regular at Yarmouth, especially the eastern festival seeing as it was my 2nd closest course after Newmarket. Love Yarmouth, never crammed and the racecourse staff are always top notch.
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Re: Horse Racing Discussion Thread: Monday 17th September - Sunday 23rd September

Postby meoldmate » Mon Sep 17, 2018 5:45 pm

6.45 Galway

Island Master is sired by Turtle Island and this can be a strong line of indication to soft ground being very favourable, conditions have come good.
Also in this horses favour is the young jockey booked
Darragh O'Keeffe who claims seven pounds and has ridden three winners in the past fourteen days and the allowance could pay dividends with 10-6 to carry which nearly puts him on bottom weight.
The distance may be on the short side but with soft ground stamina could be his forte in at the finish.
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Re: Horse Racing Discussion Thread: Monday 17th September - Sunday 23rd September

Postby meoldmate » Mon Sep 17, 2018 5:59 pm

That one grind it out at the finish in Ireland back on these shores and in the next, I am going for a long shot
SMILES A LOT, Marcus Tregoning has his horses running fairly well and this son of Motivator could be capable of springing a surprise and with Tyler Saunders claiming seven pounds could be getting a good ride on seasonal debut.
A tentative selection at 66/1, nothing great in the field of what we have seen so far.
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Re: Horse Racing Discussion Thread: Monday 17th September - Sunday 23rd September

Postby Arc Jimmy » Mon Sep 17, 2018 6:56 pm

Am looking forward to the week ahead, especially Wednesday as I'm jumping on the train off to make the annual jaunt to the seaside for Yarmouth's BIG day namely the Listed Fillies John Musker Stakes.

Had a look at 5 day declarations & looks quite a weak renewal, Chain Of Dasies running off 110 top rated albeit giving lumps away to Godolphin's 3 year old Winter Lightning running off 109, Dettori looks like he's chosen Yarmouth to Sandown, he'll be my jockey I'll follow on the day, probably have 4 rides & grab a couple of winners.

Wednesday also features the Sea Deer handicap, he's a standing dish at the course after winning handicaps on consecutive days in the late 1990's, if my memory serves me right, he'll be 29 or 30 years old will get paraded before the race & being a nostalgic old git will get a warm reception from myself.

Good luck mate, used to be a regular at Yarmouth, especially the eastern festival seeing as it was my 2nd closest course after Newmarket. Love Yarmouth, never crammed and the racecourse staff are always top notch.

Cheers Zipster, along with 1 day at Cheltenham, The Lincoln or The Cambridgeshire, The Dante, Racing Post Trophy, Peterborough Chase ( my local track ) always go on the Wednesday of the Eastern Festival my regular days out racing, other than Cheltenham all the other courses are pretty flat other than Rose Hill on the Town Moor.

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Re: Horse Racing Discussion Thread: Monday 17th September - Sunday 23rd September

Postby meoldmate » Tue Sep 18, 2018 5:08 pm

6.15 Galway

SYRENA

She has a very good chance of producing the goods from a favourable draw and run a big race on ground she has yet to encounter.
The step back down in class to maiden company from Listed can see her shine, could be hard to beat here.
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Re: Horse Racing Discussion Thread: Monday 17th September - Sunday 23rd September

Postby tachiniboy » Wed Sep 19, 2018 1:46 am

Hi guys,i have to point this one out,i have had a lot of success this season with the Easterbs 3yo doing this,pick a awful race,run three terrible maidens,get a low handicap mark (45) put him away for 121 days,for maturity and strengthening put first time blinkers on,get a claimer to take more weight off (5) point him at the winning line,lead from the front,and win going away,the horse in question is (CARLTON THOMAS) 5:35 Beverley currently priced 20-1 good luck guys

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Re: Horse Racing Discussion Thread: Monday 17th September - Sunday 23rd September

Postby meoldmate » Sat Sep 22, 2018 9:42 am

Good Morning all

We have plenty of action on today, with racing from the north, Scotland and south of the country plus a venue from Ireland, surely the winners can be fore told on here.
Have not done this for a long time, going to give it a go and place up some views on the discussion page, as this was the hub of the OLBG site in days gone by, now it is lost amongst the others things that has come into view, like facebook and twitter and many more chat sites.

Ayr is on the heavy side, if watching yesterday races you would of notice the sprint races were heading to the high drawn horses while seven furlongs plus was dominated by low.

AYR GOLD CUP 3.50

The Scottish sprint filly race was won by Intense Romance who came from eleven and the second which I done Mayleaf Shine was fifteen with close third Richenza came out of seventeen.
The Bronze Cup was the same with high drawn horses, 16 Lucky Lucky Man, 23 Royal Residence, 25 Tawny Port and fourth place 20 Kenny The Captain.
This does give a fair indication to the Gold Cup today.

I use to give an insight into all the field with past imports but today, I am not going to do this but highlight several that could feature.

Working down the card and looking at the official ratings, the first to come into view is the Irish raider

No 8 Drawn 17 SON OF REST 4 9-3 Chris Hayes rating mark of 101 and won off 103, two pounds well in on best mark.
Raced off this mark in a group one at the Curragh and came a close second, has a very progressive look about him, even better still he handles this surface.
Raced fourteen times and won twice and eight of those races he has gone off favourite and many of them very short, a well supported horse, matter of fact he was odds on for his debut back in August 2016.
He is waited with in races and this could be a good tactic as it looks like winners were coming from off the pace, a REAL danger to all.
This one has been rubbished by Matt Chapman, chances of grown LOL. :<a href=/school/lesson15.php>NAP</a>: 7/1 dead heat

The top weight No 1 drawn 24 PERFECT PASTURE 8 9-10 racing off 108 which he won off at Doncaster which was a listed race but looking at this ones chances he was down the field in this race back in 2016 and he was a pound lower that day.

Another Irish raider that could be considered is No 9 drawn 23 G FORCE 7 9-3 he is racing ff 101 today and his best is 95, he arrives here with five runs and one win amongst them and can handle this ground.
He did run in this race in 2016 and finished fourth and was only beaten 2 3/4 lengths behind Brando but is a pound higher here today but still should hold the top weight with this view of form.
He runs better races on soft ground than a faster surface and his 25/1 makes him appealing.

The last one I am going to highlight is No 19 drawn 14 ACES 6 8-13 has handle ground conditions in the past when trained in Ireland, comes here fairly fresh with an unplaced run at Goodwood and this run came after a 58 day break.
Won at Newmarket over seven furlongs and Epsom over six, showing adaptable to courses, could be in the firing line when the line looms.

My selection

SON OF REST

G FORCE Each Way play with bookies who will be paying six places.

NEWBURY 2.20

Small field of seven runners and MIRAGE DANCER who is by Frankel and looks a progressive sort and the way he won at Goodwood their is more to come and looks hard to beat even if the rain arrives, this should not worry him. :<a href=/school/lesson15.php>NB</a>:
Of course danger will be last years winner DESERT ENCOUNTER and he does handle soft to good conditions, at 4/1 can be interesting.
Could be a forecast bet, reverse to play safe. :3:

NEWBURY 3.30

Group three five furlong race and thirteen go to post and with ease in ground could be finding a few out, the one I feel will not be found out is the raider from Ireland SIOUX NATION who is ridden by Ryan Moore and this is a step down in class from Group one company and he could get a good tow into the race from El Astronaute who is drawn just outside him. NON-RUNNER

CATTERICK 4.10

Racing on good to soft ground and possibly more softer than a few will like here and the one I am highlighting is the top weight STAR OF THE EAST with him holding his position in the race the bottom four are out of the handicap proper.
This Mark Johnston trained four year old is racing off 98 which he has raced off the last twice without winning, could be capable of getting this right with a strong run as pace should be good with Michael Bell charge India doing the donkey work who is eight pound higher here and that may find him out. :<a href=/school/lesson15.php>NB</a>:

NEWMARKET 3.55

Cesarewitch trail over eighteen furlongs and Tony Martin has sent one over for this race in the shape of GOLDEN SPEAR This is Tony only runner of the day and a punt could be on, watch the market for movement.
Looks weighted to be a serious player with him racing off 86.
Stays and can act on the ground a big player and 6/1 looks a good price to play at. :<a href=/school/lesson15.php>NB</a>:

CHELMSFORD 3.25

Sprint race worth over £29,000 worth aiming for, reason nine runners are lining up and the one I feel could be accountable with a big run at a very good price is the top weight MARNIE JAMES who is trained by Iain Jardine and he has many runners at Ayr but has sent this one down here and this could be a good indication of a big run appearing, with Marnie James first run on the all weather.
Has a very good draw to be competitive from and with a power pack finish he can be too strong for these and he is weighted to beat Eeh Bah Gum and he could have the legs off favourite Gold Filigree who will be hoping for room to make her move. :<a href=/school/lesson15.php>NAP</a>: 6/1

There are the ones I am looking at today and hope this has been helpful and rewarding Good luck.
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Re: Horse Racing Discussion Thread: Monday 17th September - Sunday 23rd September

Postby meoldmate » Sun Sep 23, 2018 1:54 pm

Yesterday had mixed results with my views with two winners and several placed, hopefully this one I am going to give over bodes well for a win
Uttoxeter racing is on good to soft ground and after watching the first couple of races, the runners are bouncing well off this.

The one I am hoping to achieve success with is in the 4.20 UTTOXETER TOBOGGAN'S FIRE who has Brian Hughes in the plate and the horse is returning after a 211 day break.
She will be fresh and ready to give notice of a big run and will be able to be a player with this ground playing to her strengths than the heavy ground she met last time out.
This two miles will be suiting her compared to a coupe others who may want further and with Brian Hughes holding her off the pace she can use her flat speed to affect after the last and win this race possibly with something in hand, she has an outstanding chance and the 11/4 with most boards looks attractive to play at.
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Re: Horse Racing Discussion Thread: Monday 17th September - Sunday 23rd September

Postby meoldmate » Sun Sep 23, 2018 3:10 pm

Is it just me, has the racing post gone down as I am getting an error message appearing, was working earlier.
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