Chasers, Primarily Novice Chasers.

burglarbob
Handicapper
Tips
Posts: 21
Joined: Thu May 01, 2014 11:00 pm

Chasers, Primarily Novice Chasers.

Postby burglarbob » Sat Sep 15, 2018 2:46 pm

Hello to you Forum Readers, With the jumps game picking up the momentum now. I thought it may be a good time to discuss something that I have heard many jumps state. Including top trainers like Nicky Henderson. Statement as follows. " Regardless of how well or otherwise they may have performed first time. You just never know how they'll do on their second go."
Since realising, that this seems to be a widely held view. I have consistently avoided backing second time outers, over fences. No matter how impressive their first run may have been.
Now I'm wondering whether any of you stats specialists have any evidence that supports this opinion.
Or even whether you think it worthy of the time it would take, to establish if one may be able to save money by avoiding these runners.
If not actually make money by going against them.
As I'm sure you know. This doesn't just apply to Novice Chase races. You do see the same scenario played out in handicaps too.
Where markets are different.
Any thoughts, anyone.

Zipster
Stallion
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 6647
Joined: Wed Apr 20, 2005 11:00 pm
Location: Ipswich, UK
Contact:

Re: Chasers, Primarily Novice Chasers.

Postby Zipster » Sun Sep 16, 2018 3:00 pm

I like the younger runners when it comes to chasing, 4yo-6yo runners making their second starts over fences the past four years have had strike rates of 17%, 19%, 17% & 17% compared to the older runners the strike rates drop to 12%, 11%, 10% & 14% so I would certainly not write off the younger runners especially when running in Novices' Chases as those strike rates are 27%, 29%, 22% & 25% over the past four years but I would certainly say a good finish on debut over fences would be ideal, looking at those who finished in the first three on debut and then ran in a Novices' Chase the strike rates over the past four years are 35%, 35%, 26% & 31% so there is certainly something there to work with.
OLBG Tipster Competition Assistant || A Great Man Once Said 'The first and the best victory is to conquer self' || Follow Me On Twitter

sportingsamcan
Group 2 Class
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 128
Joined: Mon Jan 19, 2015 12:00 am

Re: Chasers, Primarily Novice Chasers.

Postby sportingsamcan » Mon Sep 17, 2018 8:24 am

Perhaps the trainers view is a horse could get over confident if they have an easy/good first round over fences, sometimes a horse needs to clip a couple to learn that they need to respect them.

Personally i think it depends on the context, in the UK too many novice chase events for top class horses having their first start are uncompetitive and see a 1/3 shot taking on future handicappers.

Certainly gets me excited for the season ahead.

meoldmate
Legend
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 20651
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 11:00 pm
Location: Fife

Re: Chasers, Primarily Novice Chasers.

Postby meoldmate » Sun Sep 23, 2018 3:05 pm

If the first run was a decent one and the novice jumped well, second outing can be another rewarding result but as long as the trainer does not aim his novice at something higher, or taking on potential sorts as this can get a youngster off his stride and meeting a fence all wrong and this could upset his/her confidence and under perform.
I have notice this in the past and because of an easy win on appearance the second outing the bookies have this one at short odds and many of them have come undone.
I really think it is down to the trainer and where he/she is placing their novices after winning there first.
OLBG Moderator

DAVIDADAN
Stallion
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 5646
Joined: Sun May 25, 2008 11:00 pm
Contact:

Re: Chasers, Primarily Novice Chasers.

Postby DAVIDADAN » Sun Sep 23, 2018 7:56 pm

Personally I’d treat each novice chaser with respect at the easier tracks, they may be with a top yard and displayed bags of talent at home but have often their own views about the chasing game on course and are still inexperienced running in decent size chase fields.The likes of Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson will likely have dozens if not scores of novice chasers amongst their ranks and will have seasonal targets planned for their connections, therefore many will face easy assignments, chasing small prize money & fields along the way at prohibitive odds whilst gaining valuable experience.Many of the best hurdlers will never see a fence, a rarer number go directly over fences from the flat as likely too slow over the latter. Will connections want to simply pick up some easy prize money in ‘soft’ races as their horse is ineligible for most hurdling races or will the horse actually improve for going fencing?, only time will tell with each individual.

burglarbob
Handicapper
Tips
Posts: 21
Joined: Thu May 01, 2014 11:00 pm

Re: Chasers, Primarily Novice Chasers.

Postby burglarbob » Sun Sep 30, 2018 8:52 am

I'd like to thank all four of you gentlemen who responded to my recent post.
Meoldmate, for expressing some indisputable views. Sportingsamcan, I'm entirely in agreement with.
Davidadan, Point to trainers, in conjunction with owners wishes. Must play a part in horses placement.
Most of all, I and surely many others will praise the name of Zipster. For pointing out some startling statistics on younger novice chasers.
Which I will endeavour to pay very close attention to when making my betting choices.
Once again the breath of knowledge amongst the membership of this web site. Continues to amaze and delight......Thank you again.

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: bugaboo100