Premier League Relegation diary 2018/19

davidg3907
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Re: Premier League Relegation diary 2018/19

Postby davidg3907 » Tue Sep 04, 2018 2:44 pm

Maybe I was too optimistic trying to lay Bournemouth at around 8.60. The bet has been left on offer as 8 pts @ 9.40 but I will not chase the odds. They have a tricky fixture coming up against Leicester and defeat would enable me to be laying them at even shorter odds after the match. Therefore, the back bet has converted this to a smaller lay at very favourable odds.

The following have been laid.
13 pts Fulham @ 3.41 (6.40 / 6.60)
15 pts Crystal Palace @ 7.77 (8.40 / 8.60)
30 pts Burnley @ 2.44 (2.82 / 2.84)
16 pts Newcastle @ 3.89 (4.70 / 4.90)
5 pts Bournemouth @ 2.00 (9.60 / 10.00)
1 pt Everton @ 40.00 (34.00 / 38.00)
6 pts Leicester @ 10.67 (27.00 / 28.00)
1 pt Wolves @ 3.89 (17.50 / 18.00)

The following have been backed.
20 pts Huddersfield @ 2.76 (1.68 / 1.69)
6 pts Southampton @ 11.57 (6.20 / 6.60)
15 pts Watford @ 5.08 (18.50 / 23.00)
1.9 pts West Ham @ 52.66 (3.70 / 3.75)
2.5 pts Brighton @ 4.20 (4.90 / 5.10)

The following have been traded out.
Last edited by davidg3907 on Sun Sep 16, 2018 2:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Premier League Relegation diary 2018/19

Postby davidg3907 » Thu Sep 06, 2018 6:25 pm

There has been substantial movement today in the relegation and 'to stay up' markets. This has further enabled me to manage liabilities on Betfair which will give more room for trading at a later date. The downside of this is of course, that funds are tied up elsewhere - but they are working instead of being idle.

Brighton. I have backed them for 11 pts @ 6.00 and laid 12.5 pts @ 4.90. That leaves me with a new back position of 1 pt @ 15.25.
Huddersfield. I have laid them for 5 pts @ 1.69. I then backed them for 30 pts to stay up @ 3.25 knowing this could be traded profitably at any time. I have since backed them for 75 pts @ 1.67 to be relegated. The new position is a nett back bet of 22.5 pts @ 3.30.
Wolves. I have backed them for 3 pts @ 23. There is no urgency to trade this. I have requested a 5 pt lay @ 16 but may need to stretch that slightly. Eventually, half was matched at 16.5 and half at 17 so an average of 5 pts @ 16.75.

It would appear that more bookmakers are entering the 'to stay up' market - obviously the opposite of 'to be relegated'. Is this a one-off type situation, or are we going to see more of these 'pseudo-lays' in the future? This would offer much more scope for trading if it was to catch on in a big way.

Double Chance has been around for a while in football matches. That is, of course, just the same as laying the third option. Similarly, backing under 2.5 goals is the same as laying over 2.5 goals. However, there will remain for some time, many punters will remain uncomfortable if placing 'lay' bets. Just like when the exchanges first opened, it took punters time to accept the new toy.
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Re: Premier League Relegation diary 2018/19

Postby davidg3907 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 11:09 am

Heading into this weekend's fixtures, I shall look at just two of the teams.

The first is Watford. I have a liability of 15 pts for a profit of just over 61. Should I wish to recoup that 15 pts, I would need to make them a loser in the portfolio for around 250 pts. However unlikely they are to be relegated (and for a 20/1 shot that is far from impossible), that is obviously not a route I am prepared to take. Using the current exposure ceiling, I could lay them for half the liability, leaving a potential loss of 7.5 pts or 100 pts depending on the outcome. A third option is to 'red up' leaving a loss of about 11.5 pts whatever happens. Again, it seems too early to do so. For this reason, I am prepared to write off the bet as a loser unless the odds shorten considerably over the next few weeks or months as that gives the chance of a turn around while the situation can't get much worse.

The other is West Ham. Their odds have settled for the moment, with perhaps a slight drift. I do not want to lose what is a tremendous position, but also, I feel that although they may bring something back from Everton, they then face tough home matches against Chelsea and Manchester United. Unless they cause a surprise in either of those games, the odds won't drift sufficiently to damage the position. This is where the creation of more flexibility in the Betfair exposure comes into play. I can defer any decision until after the next 3 matches and still be able to choose a suitable option.
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Re: Premier League Relegation diary 2018/19

Postby davidg3907 » Sun Sep 16, 2018 10:43 am

With Saturday's matches out of the way, defeats for Cardiff (totally predictable) and Huddersfield (one they didn't need), have widened the gap between them and the pack in this market. These results, along with defeat for Fulham (also totally predictable), have seen most other odds drift among the main contenders.

While this has added value to the portfolio overall, attention must now turn to the encounters today and tomorrow, all of which involve two of the fourteen teams on our list.

First up is the match between sides that I've laid. A draw may suit the book but would not help either side pull clear. Wolves getting relegated and Burnley surviving would be slightly worse than the other way round for the portfolio overall but as far as trading is concerned, a win for Burnley would enable an immediate trade with the liability reduced and the value increased. It would have an interesting side effect too in that West Ham would shorten. In this scenario, the liability on Burnley could be transferred to taking for profit on West Ham if desired. Defeat for Burnley means that West Ham's odds drift prior to their match with Everton, whatever happens to them during or after it.

I have decided to take some profit in the West Ham bet by trying to lay 15 pts @ 3.80. This has been partially matched (12 pts) and the other 3 pts was laid @ 3.90.

Southampton v Brighton involves two teams that I have backed, albeit Brighton is primarily in a treble with Cardiff and Huddersfield. Brighton's next two opponents are Tottenham (h) and Man City (a). Southampton's next three fixtures include Liverpool (a) and Chelsea (h). As liabilities are small, this match can be left to run its course.

Next up for review will be Newcastle and Crystal Palace who meet in London next week.
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Re: Premier League Relegation diary 2018/19

Postby davidg3907 » Sun Sep 16, 2018 3:18 pm

Due to a 5 pt back bet @ 3.75 made in the week that was omitted from here, and a lay of 15 pts @ nett 3.82 today, the position changes to an overall trade.

The current position is now a profit of 56.5 pts if relegated and 13 pts if safe. Should they escape from the drop zone, it will be very cheap to eliminate the liability; if they remain in the area, the bet is a very favourable one and the exposure can be stood.

While leading by 2 goals, I took the often tread path of backing them again with a view to trading should Everton make a comeback, with the probability that their odds have hit a maximum if they hold on to win.

I have backed them for 10 pts @ 5.60 leaving a profit of 102.50 pts if relegated and 3 pts if safe. Some of this will be traded should they not win.
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Re: Premier League Relegation diary 2018/19

Postby davidg3907 » Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:12 am

After West Ham won, I tried to back them for a small stake at odds of between 8 and 9 but got no takers.

Brighton didn't shorten sufficiently to lay them after they went behind last night. If I had backed Southampton, it would have required a substantial increase in liability to lay them again if Brighton didn't make a comeback. As any result would have little immediate impact on my overall position, I let things run. Southampton now face difficult away games at Liverpool and Wolves before hosting Chelsea in their next 3 matches. Hopefully, their odds will contract ahead of the next break.

I am hoping that West Ham will not pick up more than 1 point in their two home games against Chelsea and Man Utd. That would enable more trading to be possible at shorter than their current odds.

Prior to the West Ham match, I laid Everton for 2 pts @ 38. This was another bet to balance the liabilities/exposure.


The liability on Burnley is just about OK, but I would like to free more funds by reducing the exposure. That needs them to start winning though!

The following have been laid.
13 pts Fulham @ 3.41 (5.30 / 5.50)
15 pts Crystal Palace @ 7.77 (12.50 / 13.50)
30 pts Burnley @ 2.44 (2.20 / 2.24)
16 pts Newcastle @ 3.89 (4.70 / 4.90)
5 pts Bournemouth @ 2.00 (23.00 / 24.00)
3 pts Everton @ 38.67 (26.00 / 27.00)
8 pts Leicester @ 14.75 (27.00 / 28.00)
6 pts Wolves @ 14.61 (34.00 / 36.00)

The following have been backed.
22.5 pts Huddersfield @ 2.30 (1.49 / 1.51)
6 pts Southampton @ 11.57 (5.70 / 5.90)
15 pts Watford @ 5.08 (23.00 / 25.00)
1 pt Brighton @ 15.25 (5.00 / 5.20)

The following have been traded out.
West Ham 102.5 pts profit if relegated 3.1 pts profit if safe (6.40 / 6.80)

Proposed action before the next matches.

I would still like to back West Ham as a short term trade. The problem is that should they take any points from the next two games, that trade would require a substantial increase in exposure, something I am trying to avoid.

I can't do too much with Burnley in the short term unless they win a couple of matches. I am not keen on reducing the liability for the sake of it as I expect them to make a bold bid to get away from the drop zone in time. Obviously, a hit may need to be taken if they continue in this form, but the market would change drastically should either Cardiff or Huddersfield get detached. After hosting Bournemouth, they face Cardiff (away) and Huddersfield (home). Anything between 5 and 7 points would be very welcome.

I have laid both Newcastle and Crystal Palace. Both are currently trading at longer odds, and one would drift much further with a win. Both should drift with a draw but a win for Palace may be more harmful to my position.
Last edited by davidg3907 on Sun Sep 23, 2018 7:43 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Premier League Relegation diary 2018/19

Postby davidg3907 » Sat Sep 22, 2018 9:46 am

I have backed Burnley 15 pts @ 1.80 to stay up.

They have shortened a shade on Betfair so this will need to remain as an open trading option. Should they take the lead against Bournemouth at any stage, this can easily be traded. If they don't, then I shall need to wait for better fortune against Cardiff and/or Huddersfield.

I have also placed requests to back West Ham 5 pts @ 7.40 and lay Palace 3 pts @ 11.5.

It is unusual for both teams to shorten pre-match at this stage of the season, but that is what is happening with Palace and Newcastle. Money can be made by selecting the winner of this match. Even a draw may see both teams drift again to enable a small profit to be taken.
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Re: Premier League Relegation diary 2018/19

Postby davidg3907 » Sat Sep 22, 2018 4:21 pm

Burnley have drifted but not as far as I hoped. This is now more likely to remain as a bet than a trade.

Huddersfield started brightly at Leicester but were eventually outclassed and outplayed. Probably fortunate not to see several more cards than they did, I backed them for 20 pts @ 1.52 to be assessed prior to their match at Burnley assuming they lose to Tottenham next week. Originally, I tried for 1.62 when they took the lead but this was still not matched by the time Leicester equalised. Having reduced my requested odds, I got matched at 1.52 before Leicester scored again.

West Ham have not been matched so I have cancelled that but may do something during their match.
The lay of Palace, 3 pts @ 11.5 was also not matched (now 2 pts matched) but I am prepared to lay at the slightly higher odds that they were during the week.
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Re: Premier League Relegation diary 2018/19

Postby davidg3907 » Sun Sep 23, 2018 10:50 am

All 3 pts of the Crystal Palace lay @ 12.00 have now been matched.

Although predictable, defeats for both Cardiff and Huddersfield saw their odds cut. Whether or not they eventually escape, it seems likely that both will be around the drop zone for some time. Unlike last season, the number of teams involved in the battle is already becoming fewer.

They are currently taking about 145% of the total book at 'mid-point prices, leaving just 155% for the other 12 teams to fight over. Before this set of fixtures, it stood at 125% and at the beginning of September,115%. If the trend continues (albeit at a slower rate), odds for the other 12 teams would drift quite quickly, particularly for any team picking up points.

With this in mind, it is imperative to look at the portfolio of back bets as the value may be to trade early. It is too late to do much about Watford, but if prepared to create a liability without increasing exposure, about 40% of the bet could be laid off. Four of their next six matches are away, commencing with a trip to Arsenal. They could pick up points after that before a visit to Leicester is sandwiched between home games against Liverpool and Man City (match 15). Profit taking may still be possible at that point.

In their next 4 matches, West Ham have home games against Chelsea, Man Utd, and Tottenham plus a trip to Brighton. Although being monitored, this position should survive until the completion of that set of fixtures. There is an international break after the visits from Chelsea and Man Utd so a chance to re-assess the situation would be provided.

The position with Huddersfield is now a greater liability. The next 4 matches see them host Tottenham and Liverpool, along with trips to Burnley and Watford. They would do well to get more than 4 points from those games, so a watching brief, for now, may suffice.

Southampton, in their current form, may continue to struggle as the fixtures start to look more difficult. Any upturn in form would see me take some profit, but for now, that can wait.

Brighton is a more difficult one to adjust due to most of the back bet being an RT with Cardiff and Huddersfield. A 1 point single at 15.25 and 3 points treble at 15.00 is a comfortable position and they can be laid at any time after EITHER they look likely to depart the scene (create a liability), or the treble becomes very likely (option to trade for profit).
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Re: Premier League Relegation diary 2018/19

Postby davidg3907 » Sun Sep 23, 2018 8:15 pm

After aborting attempts to back Burnley at 3.50/3.60 when they took the lead, I will now leave it for the moment as I had increased the liability by backing them to stay up.
I tried to back West Ham pre-match but could not get matched at decent odds. I left an in-play request of 5 pts @ 9.00 in case Chelsea took the lead. Again, this lapsed but I have since backed them for 5 pts @ 8.40, hoping they will shorten sufficiently to make a viable trade.

The following have been laid.
13 pts Fulham @ 3.41 (4.70 / 5.20)
18 pts Crystal Palace @ 8.56 (11.50 / 12.50)
42 pts Burnley @ 2.39 (3.25 / 3.35)
16 pts Newcastle @ 3.89 (4.50 / 4.70)
5 pts Bournemouth @ 2.00 (15.50 / 16.00)
3 pts Everton @ 38.67 (20.00 / 23.00)
8 pts Leicester @ 14.75 (32.00 / 34.00)
6 pts Wolves @ 14.61 (38.00 / 46.00)

The following have been backed.
42.5 pts Huddersfield @ 2.46 (1.40 / 1.42)
6 pts Southampton @ 11.57 (5.20 / 5.40)
15 pts Watford @ 5.08 (27.00 / 28.00)
1 pt Brighton @ 15.25 (4.90 / 5.10)
1.9 pts West Ham @ 74.00 (7.40 / 7.80)

The following have been traded out.

Potential action to be taken.

1. In stages, I want to decrease my exposure on Burnley in order to fund any possible trades on West Ham.
2. A 1 pt back of Leicester @ about 40 (albeit probably throwing it away) would be an alternative way of reducing the overall exposure, avoiding any need to make a further deposit.
3. Southampton, Fulham, and Crystal Palace will be monitored.
4. I am not unduly concerned about Newcastle for the moment.
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Re: Premier League Relegation diary 2018/19

Postby davidg3907 » Tue Sep 25, 2018 10:48 am

Southampton started yesterday c 5.05 but by mid-afternoon were trading c 6.50. They have not signed Messi or Ronaldo, they were not involved in a match, and results have not been great with the only win coming at a Zaha-free Palace. I am prepared to wait till after the games away to Wolves and home to Chelsea, but fixtures then become easier and they may start to collect points on a more regular basis.

West Ham's odds could have dropped as a consequence, but haven't.
Burnley shortened so there may need to be a delay in trading them.
Huddersfield are now shorter than Cardiff. It will help reduce exposure so I fancy a small trade at these odds. I have therefore laid 20 pts @ 1.36 reverting to an overall back position of 22.5 pts @ 3.44.
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Re: Premier League Relegation diary 2018/19

Postby davidg3907 » Wed Sep 26, 2018 9:20 pm

Requested 6 pts back Southampton @ 6.40 ahead of Wolves match.

In light of events at Man Utd, it is possible I may wish to trade this earlier than intended.

4.59 pts now matched, and with the odds now 5.8/5.9 I have cancelled the balance as it is unlikely to get taken up.
I have just laid the coppers at 6.00 leaving a nett 10.5 pts back bet @ 9.36

Cardiff v Burnley will become my focus tomorrow.
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