Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

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Re: Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Postby jamiedavies023 » Fri Dec 01, 2017 2:44 pm

FA Cup 2017/18

It may only be 2nd round day but I like West Brom as an early bird Each Way shout for FA Cup glory come May time, they are as big as 80/1 (1/2 1-2). Here's my thoughts;

West Brom currently sit 17th in the Premier League, there's no disputing that. That however, doesn't tell the full story for me; on my ratings they are the 11th best team in the league.

Former manager Tony Pulis was sacked a fortnight again and this week the Baggies appointed Alan Pardew. Now I'm not Pardew's biggest fan by any stretch, but he is a 2 time FA Cup runner up after guiding West Ham and Crystal Palace to finals in the last decade or so. I must admit before his appointment I was struggling to find an early bird Each Way shout for this seasons competition - however I made a note of West Brom when I heard his first presser as a manager were he stated the following; "I've come close twice, very, very close to winning the FA Cup, and one day I would like to do it. That's the kind of ambition I'm talking about." - this to me is a signal of intent that he will be taking this competition seriously.

I actually fancied West Brom to do well in last years competition, sadly they were dumped out in R3 by Derby after leading 1-0, in the 2 seasons prior to that they reached the QF and R5.

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West Brom to win the FA Cup (ew) 80/1 @ bet365

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Re: Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Postby jamiedavies023 » Wed Dec 06, 2017 12:47 pm

Champions League Outright

I've been looking into the Outright market this morning, I think at 7/2 PSG look too short, they've not been beyond the QF in the last 6 seasons and shown that they're not untouchable losing 2-1 Strasbourg at the weekend before going down 3-1 in Munich last night - albeit with top spot in the group all but secured. Similarly I can't be having Man City at 9/2; yes they're flying at the minute but May is 5 months away and they have also shown vulnerabilities in recent weeks needing late goals to see off Huddersfield, Southampton and West Ham and have only 1 semi final appearance to boast of in the past 6 years. I'm liking the look of 3 European powerhouses, 3 teams that are constantly there or thereabouts come the business end of the competition, those 3 teams are Real Madrid, Barcelona and Bayern Munich; if you was to dutch these teams at best odds pays around 13/8, this looks a rock solid investment to me and one were you would have had atleast 1 runner in the last 9 finals.

Bet

Real Madrid, Barcelona or Bayern Munich to win the Champions League - 13/8 (Best prices dutched)

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Re: Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Postby scotty2hotty » Thu Dec 21, 2017 11:10 am

[quote=jamiedavies023 post_id=1639417 time=1512564433 user_id=480389]
[b][u]Champions League Outright[/u][/b]

I've been looking into the Outright market this morning, I think at 7/2 PSG look too short, they've not been beyond the QF in the last 6 seasons and shown that they're not untouchable losing 2-1 Strasbourg at the weekend before going down 3-1 in Munich last night - albeit with top spot in the group all but secured. Similarly I can't be having Man City at 9/2; yes they're flying at the minute but May is 5 months away and they have also shown vulnerabilities in recent weeks needing late goals to see off Huddersfield, Southampton and West Ham and have only 1 semi final appearance to boast of in the past 6 years. I'm liking the look of 3 European powerhouses, 3 teams that are constantly there or thereabouts come the business end of the competition, those 3 teams are Real Madrid, Barcelona and Bayern Munich; if you was to dutch these teams at best odds pays around 13/8, this looks a rock solid investment to me and one were you would have had atleast 1 runner in the last 9 finals.

[u]Bet[/u]

[b]Real Madrid, Barcelona or Bayern Munich[/b] to win the Champions League - 13/8 (Best prices dutched)
[/quote]


The draws been made since your post Jamie and you've been proven to be spot on! If Real beat PSG you're in a very strong position. GL

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Re: Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Postby istabraq1 » Wed Jan 03, 2018 4:36 pm

I have a friend who is sitting on a Man City, Wolves and Wigan accummulator at the moment, looking good so far :shock:

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Re: Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Postby davidg3907 » Mon May 14, 2018 9:23 am

How close to a bonanza can you get?

I am not a fan of big odds accas so although I keep saying I may throw £1 at them sometimes, I can never convince myself to do so.

Rather than try to back the winners of each league where the favourites rarely seem good value but picking the right alternative can be tricky, I love the challenge of the handicap markets as that is similar to trying to find the winners of the Lincoln, Hunt Cup, Stewards' Cup, and Cambridgeshire in one go! The big difference is that the markets open flat (all teams at the same odds).

This season, I came so close to what would have been a massive payout (78,607/1), that my heart may not have survived to tell the tale - with the TV possibly succumbing too. :shock:

All can be verified on this thread.

League 2.

I backed Luton (7/1) and Wycombe (28/1) Each Way in the standard market. They finished 2nd and 3rd.
I backed Accrington (+14) on handicap. They won by 11 pts.

League 1
I backed Bradford (4/1) for promotion. A run of just 6 pts from 14 games was too much to combat so they finished 11th (10 pts out of play-offs).
I backed Scunthorpe (20/1) Each Way in the standard market. They finished 5th. A run of 16 pts from 17 games meant missing out on 4th place by 3 pts.
I backed Shrewsbury (+26) on handicap. They won by 13 pts.

Championship.
I backed Sheff Weds (+4) on handicap but they disappointed from quite early on.
I backed Wolves (+10) on handicap. They won by 3 pts.

Premier League.
The relegation market hit problems at the start, came good in the middle of the season, and ended as a bit of a disaster.
I backed Burnley on the spread to get more than 35 pts. That was not in doubt from early in the season.
I backed Leicester (+32) on handicap. Although in the frame in December, a poor finish saw them drop to 12th.
I backed Burnley (+44) on handicap. They finished 2nd - but were winning it until both Manchester City and Bournemouth scored in the 93rd minute!
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Re: Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Postby Matshopsy » Fri May 18, 2018 12:05 am

That's some top tipping davidg mega unlucky not to win the big one. I love a season long punt and mentioned earlier on this thread i was having a dabble on the top c'ship scorer. Had decent result as well would say about +10points. The plan was to pick about 6 players, and add 1/2 who were having a good season, during the season. Had Vydra at 28/1 who won. And also Grabban / Jota who came 2nd / 3rd I had e/w. Also had losing bets on Assombalonga, Kodija, Hernandez and Zahore. Will try again next season.

Also fancy a dabble on picking a similar amount of teams for either winning the championship or promotion. I saw a stat the other day that all but 4 teams were in a playoff position or higher at some point in the championship. Unsure of exactly how to go about it but something along the lines of picking a few teams who I think will be there come the end of the season with the idea to let them ride, and pick a few others, possibly longer shots say Leeds, Forest and Birmingham and hoping to cash out while they are in playoff spots or higher. Ey...its an experiment haha

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Re: Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Postby Mr Blue » Wed May 23, 2018 2:27 pm

Yes indeed thst was without doubt the most impressive soccer tipping I can remember seeing for a long long time from Davidg. If only I’d seen it !!
In fact first of all I have to ask him if he normally makes a profit from handicap markets (or any other long term msrkets come to thst ) ?
Secondly I’m a little bit in the dark as to whether he actually did bet his selections in accas or not ?
I thought they were singles .
But if he did bet them in accas he missed out on the chance to win £1000s!!
What I mean is ,if he did indeed stand to win £78,000 had neither City not Bournemouth won their last games then he should have been betting on City or Bournemouth to win from about the 75th minute of their games .
So obviously I’m curious to know what actually occurred .
Actually I will take this opportunity to express my bemusement at the fact thst,assuming davidg managed to pick out those teams by skill and knowledge ,he doesn’t do more bets during the season.
If he did then he’d most certainly have latched on to City and at some point Bournemouth also most probably.
If he is as talented as these tips imply he is missing out on £1000s every year by not betting more during the season.
As are other people actually .

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Re: Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Postby davidg3907 » Thu May 24, 2018 4:16 am

Although I am happy to place accas on the matches on a daily/weekly basis (and can make sufficient profit for it to be worthwhile without ever threatening to change my lifestyle), trying to win the world's riches for a couple of quid is something that (personally) I neither attempt nor advocate. As stated, I occasionally consider doing such bets, but wisdom always turns me against the idea.

It is the style of some to pick 4 horses at 20/1 and back them in a Yankee. If I did so, it would certainly be for stakes in a single number of pennies! :P

Even stakes on this market are usually of a modest level on the basis of it being something of a novelty bet. The exception being 2 seasons ago when Leicester won the Premier League. They had amassed 41 pts the previous season in escaping relegation, picking up 22 of those points in the last 9 matches. People had assumed their true level was that of the previous 29 matches and they sneaked into the handicap market on +45. As a total (inc handicap) of 90 points will see a shout for a top 4 place, it did not require a massive improvement to reach that mark. Their total of 126 (81 actual plus 45 handicap) is something that is unlikely to be surpassed.

That was by far the biggest bet I've ever had on any of the handicap markets (odds up to 26) as most are of a recreational type of investment. It is often the case of just backing teams that are likely to better the league position indicated by the standard market.

Spread betting the number of points (as per Burnley) is another approach. However, a much greater amount of money is tied up in case of an 'inaccurate assessment' of the likely outcome. :D

Selecting the right teams is of course important, and there were logical reasons behind all those selections (lost in the post I forgot to publish having left in preview mode after proof reading - not for the first time) but of course many planets still had to align properly to get this outcome. :shock:

Trading on most major football tournaments is normally a profitable sideline. I did a blog on the last World Cup about home continent advantage and tipped Germany to beat Brazil in one semi-final before going on to beat Argentina in the final.

The Premier League relegation market is another of my regular long term ventures. This season's disaster certainly proved that I am human. :(
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Re: Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Postby toadie21 » Fri May 25, 2018 2:04 pm

I am a bit of a dreamer when it comes to the antepost bets and always do the 4 leagues trebles and a 4fold.
This season I had United 2nd, Fulham 3rd, Wigan 1st and Luton 2nd.
I’ve always left the handicap coupon alone but might have a play next season maybe in a Lucky 15.

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Re: Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Postby Mr Blue » Fri May 25, 2018 8:50 pm

@Davidg3907
Thanks for your answer .
I was sorry to read thst you don’t advocate betting outright selections in multiples (although I do agree thst betting big odds selections in multiples preseason is not advisable ) because I myself strongly advocate betting long term markets in accumulators. I believe I have overwhelming evidence that very very strongly suggests such bets are not only profitable but by far the easiest way to make money from betting . (Evidence going back many years)
I can’t post bets on here because of the rules against showing or mention9ng monetary amounts but over the next 4 years I intend to show some of the evidence on 100s of sites .
But I dont expect thst to be too effective in getting this message across so I’m also going to be sending it to the maths departments of up to 2000 universities,colleges and even some schools all over the world because no one believes me and as a result everyone bets singles on mostly 90 minute s0ccer markets and those markets are largely unbeatable and so I need a respected mathematician or msths department to really really look into this and produce a paper on it thst upholds whst I've just said .
Only then will gamblers realise thst betting this way is their only realistic hope of making significant profits from betting.
Of course by doing that I risk too many people finding out and thereby killing it.
But if I don’t do it it’s clear to me -especially from my truly awful experience on one particular forum -that hardly anyone will ever find out. (The problem with showing bets on the internet is that people still need to understand how it works and how to do it)

Now I know what some of you must be thinking . How on earth can multiples on long term msrkets with their big overrounds possibly be value bets ?
At least that’s what you should be thinking .

Thst is the key to the whole thing of course .And at this point in the past I would try saying something like ,you’ll never understand how such bets work unless you actually try them.

But very few ever do.

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Re: Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Postby davidg3907 » Fri May 25, 2018 11:46 pm

My aversion to any form of accas can be traced back to the mid 60s when I started work in the betting industry.

RACING.
The average mug punter in betting shops back then couldn't see through the smoke in the betting shop let alone see through a line of form - even for one horse! :D I never saw anyone win anything worthwhile (OK we weren't a busy establishment so the sample was small even taking all shops and the office into account) so copying them didn't become a high priority.
With time on my hands, 2yo ratings became a sideline. Again, not betting in every race limited the opportunities to experiment with multiples. I was content to make a few bob out of what was really a hobby born out of boredom.

FOOTBALL.
The scope for backing singles on English league matches was limited by the fact that it was illegal. However, in the winter it was often a case that a few doubles and trebles could include matches that were known to have been postponed, effectively converting them to singles. :oops: :P
Live football on TV was limited to the FA Cup Final and coverage of the World Cup, meaning there was not the interest in betting on matches. Pools (football version of the Tote) were popular. Fixed Odds coupons provided an option to play multiples.

Unlike present times when racing is staggered for TV and betting shop purposes, that was not always the case. Other than some of the festivals, racing was every 30 minutes virtually all of the time, either on the hour and half hour, or on the quarters. This led to across the card doubles, something that the time figure guy that bet with us always advocated. He was certainly not a mug punter and landed sufficient doubles that it would surprise me if it was not profitable in the long term.

I class myself as neither a mug punter, nor an expert, but most of the time I like to think I have some clue as to what I am doing. So where is this leading us :?

My racing bets are very rarely other than singles. This is in part due to the nature of many bets being lays or trades and there simply isn't the scope to do multiples in either field.

Football is another matter. You will not see me trying to land a 20 team accumulator on a Saturday though. As most selections are favourites, the strike rate required to make doubles much more attractive than singles is possibly quite high, so they are usually by-passed unless there are fewer than 4 selections.

That leaves the middle ground of trebles, 4-folds, and 5-folds. Some time ago, I looked at various combinations of Odds and Strike Rates that would make these bets more profitable than splitting the stake over singles. I never quite trusted the findings, or my ability to regularly meet the targets, so I still back teams in singles and small stakes multiples.

Regrettably, I didn't keep those figures but arithmetically (I am not a mathematician) I see no reason why that should not be the case whatever range of odds was involved.

2015/16 Bets 287 Win% 57.14 Av Odds 1.85 Probably borderline unless some favourable grouping of winners.
2016/17 Bets 242 Win% 53.31 Av Odds 1.83 A slight LSP loss but likely to be considerably more in multiples.
2017/18 Bets 252 Win% 57.54 Av Odds 1.93 From memory, these figures should lead to a much greater profit unless very unfortunate.
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Re: Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Postby davidg3907 » Thu May 31, 2018 12:33 am

A bit of late night reading for anyone interested in the comparison between singles and multiples betting.

A couple of basic facts that I already knew, have been confirmed by the figures from a quick spreadsheet. That leads me to believe the credibility (if not the total accuracy) of the findings in this table.

Although I compared 5 selections in singles versus a Lucky 31, I have no doubts as to whether using other odds, or another number of selections
would provide a different outcome.

Fact 1. Using a 100% book with true odds and strike rate (i.e. 50% winners at evens, or 20% winners at 4/1), the returns over a fixed sample would be the same IF (and only if) the distribution of results was also perfect. For example, tossing a coin 3 times should produce HHH once, TTT once, HHT three times and TTH 3 times in any order. Predictions should be based on a multiple of 8 tosses. Moving to the example of a Lucky 31, with a 50% SR of W versus L, there are 32 possibilities, so calculations should be based on multiples of 32.

Fact 2. Using multiples in an attempt to convert a LOSING system into a WINNING system is not a great idea. It will tend to multiply the losses.

In the table, the first of each set of 3 rows takes an SP from a 100% book, converts it to what it would be in a market with 110% over rounds (105% in the final example), and calculates the returns for 992 bets in multiples (32*31) and splitting the 992 pts stake equally over 5 indentically priced selections.

The second row shows the odds (rounded) at which point the multiples catch up with the singles. At higher odds, the multiples surge ahead.
The third row shows the same for the strike rate (rounded). With a better strike rate, again the returns from multiples improve more than for the singles.

Whenever the odds or SR is below the figures in row 2 or 3 of any set, then multiples will lose MORE than singles. For other odds/SR combinations, a minimum of 111 (110%) or 105.25 (105%) for odds*SR will be required for multiples to be more productive than singles.

P.S. My limited skills would not currently permit an attempt to verify results using a variety of odds in one bet. I may be able to at some point.

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