Value Betting

monkeytennis
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Value Betting

Postby monkeytennis » Fri Jan 31, 2014 5:26 pm

One of the most debated subjects in betting. Is value betting the be all and end all of making long term profits. Are all winning bets value? How do you determine value?

Value Betting

Think this Betting School lesson needs anything else added to it? Disagree with anything written above? Let us know your thoughts and your insight could be included in the OLBG Betting School!

iepale
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Postby iepale » Fri Mar 07, 2014 6:11 pm

I only can answer this question: How do you determine value?

I take the first example above told:

Example
You see a horse priced at 5/1 yet you estimate it has a 33% chance of winning (fair price 2/1). Assuming you are right with your estimate then there is still a 67% chance you will LOSE! IN THE LONG RUN if you are right then if you meet this situation 3 times then you can expect 1 winner (paying 5) and 2 losers (losing 1) giving you a profit of 3.

So, the way how I calculate the value is:
First I estimate the win probability of some outcome. In the example the probability that my horse wins is 0.33. Therefore, my loss probability is 1-0.33=0.67.
The expected value is what I win if I win times the win probability minus what I loss if I loss times the loss probability. Then, returning to the example:

From the odds:
What I win if I win: 5 pounds
What I loss if I loss: 1 pounds

From the probability estimation:
Win probability: 0.33
Loss probability: 0.67

Therefore:
Value = 5 pounds * 0.33 - 1 pounds * 0.67 = 1 pounds

If you need more information, the value in the statistics and probabilistic books appears as Expected Value.
How to estimate accurately the probabilities is something that I have not found so far.

Best regards.
Last edited by iepale on Sat Mar 14, 2015 1:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.

logical1
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Postby logical1 » Fri May 15, 2015 7:06 am

To see if the your selections have value in the market

1. Total all your selection values = Total of all selection's
2. Divide each individual value by the total total
3. Multiply by each value x 100 = % winning chance
4. Have your own estimated odds ( I never back below 2.5 so that's my top value)
5. Check bookmakers odds I use Ladbrokes odds - these are generally skinniest and most accurate - then simply deduct your odds line from theirs to see if you have value or not - If you want to make it more simple and you don't need % value just leave out steps 1 2 3

Eg - Today -

Course Newbury
Time 14:55
Date 14/05/2015
Class 2
Distance 6
Going G / Soft My Est
Horses Name TOTAL % Odds Ladbrokes Value
Golden Steps 64.58 13.53 2.5 3.50 1.00
Accession 53.25 11.16 3.5 4.50 1.00
Eternitys Gate 52.29 10.96 4.5 10.00 5.50
Englishman 51.96 10.89 5.5 12.00 6.50
Chilworth Icon 51.42 10.77 6.5 16.00 9.50
Clear Spring 48.63 10.19 7.5 6.50 -1.00
Valbchek 44.04 9.23 8.5 12.00 3.50
Fast Track 41.17 8.63 9.5 3.50 -6.00
Magnus Maximus 38.17 8.00 10.5 20.00 9.50
Jimmy Styles 31.71 6.64 11.5 12.00 0.50


Total 477.21 100.00

Sorry I cant find away to paste a table here looks ok until its posted ?

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Postby Football DZR » Fri May 15, 2015 9:08 pm

I looked at the lesson and sorry to sound harsh but it reads to me like the nonsense that goes around and is supposedly attempting to be corrected

Just seems like a confused muddle

How can you even have a phrase like "disadvantages of value betting" !!!!!!!

I am not sure if the person who wrote the lesson really understands "value" or has just read a bunch of things and parroted what they read from here there and everywhere.

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Postby AghaMK » Mon Dec 28, 2015 5:49 pm

What about cricket session betting, full inning betting, winning team betting ?

[Mod note - the betting for cricket is still a long way off yet and will be available nearer the time. Just fyi, please post in an appropriate place. We do have a cricket section in the forum. It helps keep the forum tidy and easy to follow, thanks :win: ]

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Postby nors » Mon Mar 21, 2016 9:45 am

We have discussed this plenty of times but it would be good if members could succinctly sum up their take on value betting.

This phrase to many members is the key to making a profit and it would be helpful if we as a group could come up with a template that new members and those new to betting could easily understand.

This is really what OLBG (a guide to betting) is all about so we should have something that can ALWAYS be referred to.

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Postby otbc canary » Mon Mar 21, 2016 1:01 pm

When it comes to Value Betting I think, like beauty, it lies in the eye of the beholder. We would all like to look at value objectively but inevitably it relies upon our subjective opinions more often based on hope and expectation than anything more substantive. For example, I felt Norwich's chances at WBA on Saturday were quite good following their fighting draw against Man City the previous weekend but my lifelong support for them I suspect influenced my belief. However, on Sunday I felt Man Utd at 10/3 to win the Manchester derby against the same City side that could not score against Norwich was good value. Can these inklings be calculated within the rules of probability? I suspect not and if they could it would doubtless spoil our joy at beating the bookies on the rare occasions when we get it right whether it be by luck or judgement. It was John Kenneth Galbraith who said '' In all large organisations it is always safer to be wrong with the majority than to be right alone'' and I think this applies to betting. Whom amongst us has been put off by what we regarded as a value bet because the price was too good. Bookies don't make mistakes do they?

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Postby Callingnumber6 » Mon Mar 21, 2016 2:00 pm

A difficult subject to get to grips with. The original 'Pricewise' Mark Coton wrote a book with that very title some 40 odd years ago. Long since out of print you could probably source one on line for a pretty penny. Having read it more years ago than I care to remember his idea was similar to the approach outlined above; if the odds offered underestimate your implied odds of winning you have a bet. If not, you don't. There was then some discussion about how much % of the betting bank you wager to take advantage of the discrepancy, apologies I forget the details.
My own personal method is quite subjective and based on what I consider to be 'poor' favourites. For example if I consider a race to be 3 the field and the jolly is priced at 6/4 I have a look purely because I think the favourite is too short and that must mean 'value' in the other participants. The other question I ask myself before pressing the button is 'am I happy to back this at 6/1' (or whatever price is on offer). A quick sanity go/no go check.
Sorry but I have been searching for a much more scientific way of doing it for a long time. As the concept of 'value' is like trying to knit spaghetti my idea of a value bet will be different to yours. The market offers so many opportunities these days all I can suggest is specialise in your chosen area of interest and become an expert. Remember the poor odds compiler has to price up everything; you can choose whether or not to bet. If you have superior knowledge you will spot value when you see it.
Now off to nail some jelly to the wall...........

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Postby davidg3907 » Mon Mar 21, 2016 6:42 pm

My own personal method is quite subjective and based on what I consider to be 'poor' favourites. For example if I consider a race to be 3 the field and the jolly is priced at 6/4 I have a look purely because I think the favourite is too short and that must mean 'value' in the other participants. The other question I ask myself before pressing the button is 'am I happy to back this at 6/1' (or whatever price is on offer). A quick sanity go/no go check.
Why look for the needle in the haystack when you can find haystacks like that?
Put another way, why look for value in backing one of the other runners when you have already found exceptional value in laying the favourite at around 6/4 :?

You would be likely to find value in 2 or more to oppose it, so now the question becomes, do I back more than one horse, or do I hope for the right one? If anyone could point me to 6/4 chances on a regular basis that should be 3/1 or higher, I would be very happy indeed. :D

Some are not keen on laying, I accept that. However, there is a caveat. For me to accept that; everyone who only backs horses, must also accept that by backing one horse, they are in effect laying all of the others. :yes:
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Postby DAVIDADAN » Mon Mar 21, 2016 7:00 pm

There was an article I read on Twitter published in the RF Outlook by Kevin Pullein about cash out value. Really interesting again what is perceived to be good value? If you ignore that you have locked in a profit or you really need the funds:

Brief example you bet 2 points @ 100/1
Bookie offers cash out @ 50pts
True odds of your bet winning are now 3/1 ....... Still value to cash out?

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Postby nors » Wed Mar 23, 2016 11:16 am

A couple dictionary definition of the word value :

"The material or monetary worth of something:"

"The regard that something is held to deserve; the importance, worth, or usefulness of something:"

If you believe that you are getting good value on a selection that you believe in this contest is generous then i think it does become a value bet.

The different bookmaker price may also offer some value - taking 12/1 on a bet where the average price across different firms is say 9/1 would in some cases but seen as getting value.

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Postby davidg3907 » Wed Mar 23, 2016 12:20 pm

In its most basic form value, like beauty can be in the eyes of the beholder.

I may think some mushrooms look really beautiful, until either a gardening expert says their stems are a millimetre too long - or they turn out to be toadstools! :D

Long before I even attempted to work out trying to find value in racing (or even understand what it meant), I had many years of doing something similar in football without realising that is basically what I was trying to do. With only 3 outcomes to consider, I would advise anyone to start here if they have an interest in football, or commence with very small fields if wanting to concentrate purely on racing.

Better class racing also makes forming a tissue easier as there is more information available, and most importantly it is likely to be consistent information.

Even at this point, if four experienced people sat down to form their own tissue, it is possible that each could find 'value' in a different horse.

There is nothing weird in that - it is simply a matter of slightly different approaches coming to slightly different conclusions.

If those four people place an emphasis on a different aspect, whether going, distance, current form, or jockey and trainer combination, their final analysis is highly likely to be at variance.

Who is wrong? Not necessarily anyone, as if that race was run 4 times, it may produce 4 different results. In the long term though, it wouldn't matter whether you picked the winner of this race, or the next one instead as long as you were getting better odds than you deemed to be correct. Your turn will come if your figures are well founded.

Not all professional, or even successful, punters back exactly the same horses; some may even back different horses in the same race.

Will England win Euro 2016?

At this stage, if offered even money I doubt whether any of us would back them. Not simply because we may not think they will win, but because we have worked out that the odds do not represent good value even if we did think they would win.

How about if offered 50/1 instead? Even though I may have had no intention of backing them and didn't expect them to win, this to me would be good value, and I would invest a few bob.

The art is to ascertain what the true odds should be, easier said than done of course, but it will be somewhere between those two figures.
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