Jimmy's Golf Blog

jimmywomble
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Jimmy's Golf Blog

Postby jimmywomble » Mon Mar 30, 2009 1:53 pm

OK having been tipping on the golf for nearly 6 months and been reasonably successful I thought it was time I started a blog.

So far I have only been paper trading and on a £1ew have made £292 profit. :shock: Actually slightly less as a couple of places have been dead heats but I haven't calculated that. Pretty much all my paper trades have been made on here as well, and am just about to have my 4th profitable month out of 6. Not a bad start for something started as a bit of fun, to get me ready for a website idea I probably won't get round to setting up, but that's another story.

Some stats so far.
97 Bets
8 Winners 8.25% The latest Goya 50-1
27 Placed (inc Winners) 27.84%
£292 Profit ROI 151%
15 Missed Cuts 15.46% :x

Given the success so far I have decided to finally put some of my hard earned money down, and this will no doubt be the start of the long dry run. This blog will therefore be the record of me losing my money... :lol:

I will select 1 player per tournament, in all events that appear on OLBG. So that will be the following tours that appear regularly.
PGA Tour
European Tour
Challenge Tour
Nationwide Tour
Champions Tour
Asian Tour
Japanese Tour
LPGA Tour

And those that don't appear that often (more often please OLBG :kiss: )
Seniors Tour
Ladies European Tour
Sunshine Tour.

In the past I have selected my players based on my guess work as to form etc, the excellent forums here and the age old pinstickers technique. Although I do prefer not to use the latter at it doesn't do the monitor any good :lol:

I will use the same basis now, I will try to add comments why I am picking the player, or refer you to the tournament thread for a full write up.

I will start will a bank of 100 points, and start with a point ew for my bets. This may increase if I continue to be successful and I will assess every few weeks.

The odds will be based on the odds I get at Paddy Power. Now I know I can get a better return if I shop around, but when I will be betting small amounts I can't be faffed having and trying to manage half a dozen different accounts. Maybe if I'm successful I might start to shop around.

Anyway I think I've waffled on enough so check back every Tue/Wed for the selections and Mon for the results.

Enjoy & wish me luck :hope:

Jimmy

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Postby OlbgDeleted75463 » Mon Mar 30, 2009 1:54 pm

Looks good m8, but wouldnt it better in the golf blog?

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Postby gecko6 » Mon Mar 30, 2009 2:31 pm

good luck jimmyw... will watch with interest mate


:win:

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Postby swashbuckler » Mon Mar 30, 2009 2:51 pm

Best of luck JW :win:
Will keep a eye on your progress :)

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Postby jimmywomble » Wed Apr 01, 2009 1:09 pm

Here we go then. Just the 4 events this week.

Remember 1 point ew, using either Paddy Power or where they don't have a market or the odds are shocking bet365

PGA Tour - Shell Houston Open
Pick is Alvaro Quiros at 55-1 Paddy Power
See http://www.olbg.com/forum/viewtopic.php ... c&start=24 for my comments.

European Tour - Estoril Open de Portugal
Pick is Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano at 22-1 Paddy Power
See http://www.olbg.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=416835#416835 for my comments on that one.

LPGA Tour - Nabisco Championship
Pick is Loreno Ochoa at 7/2 bet365
See http://www.olbg.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=416902#416902 for my comments.

Nationwide Tour - Stonebrae Classic
Pick is Vance Veazey at 22-1 bet365
Experienced former PGA Tour player, currently leading the way with a win & 3rd already this season.

Opening Bank 100.00
Bets 8.00
Closing Bank 92.00

:hope:

Jimmy

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Postby jimmywomble » Fri Apr 03, 2009 11:41 am

I hope no-one has followed my tips, cos after day 1 it isn't looking good for 2 of them.

Quiros is 72nd, which doesn't sound to bad until you realise that only 72 players made it out onto the course on the first day due to high winds, he was 9 over through 12 holes. :(

Veazey was again in a weather affected round as day 1 at the Stonebrae was delayed so not everyone has finished round one. Veazey did complete in just the 7 over for T132. :(:(

To be fair though Ochoa & Castano are reasonably placed half a dozen shots off the lead in round one.

Just knew my luck would change once I started putting some of my hard earned money down. :(

Ohh well

Jimmy

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Postby jimmywomble » Mon Apr 06, 2009 9:19 am

Here we go then the first results, and thankfully not a 100% loss. :shock:

In America I had a bad week with both Quiros & Veazey missing the cut, although Quiros did come back well in the second round to hit 4 under and so may not be the complete no hope for the Masters.

On the Womens side Ochoa didn't sparkle in any round and finished in a tie for 12th. I think I did see one the of the best shots ever from Lincicombe to set up the win, 200 yards 2nd shot to a par 5 landed on the green then ran on in a big u shape to finish within 5 feet, she duly sank the eagle to leapfrog into first.

My success came this week on the European Tour where I unluckily lost in a playoff with Castano. I was out all day yesterday so when I left it at the end of the 3rd round he was a four shots off the lead so I was hoping a good round to push up to the top 5. So I was a bit surprised when I then saw he was in the playoff and had lost. I can't complain and a return of 6.5 points helps that.

The updated results are.

Opening Bank 100.00
Bets 8.00
Returns 6.50
Closing Bank 98.50
Loss % 1.50%

Check back on Wed for this weeks tips, including the Masters where after Paul Casey's win yesterday I might change my pick & be very very boring....

Jimmy

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Postby gecko6 » Mon Apr 06, 2009 10:35 am

good stuff JW.. unlucky with castano... good pick though

:win:

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Postby jimmywomble » Wed Apr 08, 2009 1:49 pm

Week 2

The first Major of the year the Masters, and its the only event this week.

I have been spectacularly boring in my pick but think it is set up for him to win. So my pick is Tiger Woods at 15/8 on Paddy Power (Not the best odds but at least you get 6 places). My reasoning is here. http://www.olbg.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=420057#420057

I guess that pick will make a few want me to fail just cos I'm being boring. Particulalry as I'm being ultra safe and sticking with the each way, thems are the rules of the blog.

Opening Bank 98.50
Bets 2.00
Closing Bank 96.50

Enjoy

Jimmy

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Postby jimmywomble » Mon Apr 13, 2009 4:38 pm

Well just had an unexpected little bonus. Just logged on to update this and realised that Paddy Power did places to 6th. :) Thought Tiger had blown it with his 2 bogeys on the last to finish 6th but I guess I get something even though it was in a dead heat.

So a massive return of 0.36 points.

Opening Bank 98.50
Bets 2.00
Returns 0.36
Closing Bank 96.86

Still a little down but the idea is to hang around the breakeven point waiting for the win.

Check back on Wed for this weeks bets, I see the odds for the China Open is open, Jaidee who always does well in the Asian events, Castano runner up in the last event, and Edfors who won the last Asian Tour event head the betting.

All the best.

ps Just got back from a breakthrough on the course for me, just knocked 9 shots of my best to beat 100 for the first time. :shock:

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Postby jimmywomble » Wed Apr 15, 2009 1:20 pm

Week 3 and its starts to get busy with 6 events to pick this week. Something to live up to as well as I've achieved some sort of return each week, assuming 0.36 counts as a return :D .

Ok lets start with Europe.

European Tour - Volvo China Open
Pick is Simon Dyson at 16-1 Paddy Power
See http://www.olbg.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=423248#423248 for my comments.

Challenge Tour - Tusker Kenya Open
Pick is Richard McEvoy at 28-1 bet365
Early doors on the Challenge Tour so not sure who are going to be the tour leaders. McEvoy stands out as he already has a top 10 on the main tour this year, plus has won on the Challenge tour previously albeit in 2004. Eduardo Molinari should go close as a previous winner of this event.

So neither event in Europe, :P Off to America now.

PGA Tour - Verizon Heritage
Pick is Tim Clark at 33-1 Paddy Power
See http://www.olbg.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=423330#423330 for my reasons.

Nationwide Tour - Athens Reginal Foundation Classic
Pick is Henrik Bjornstad at 50-1 bet365
Going for someone who is 12th currently in the money list, and has 2 top tens already this year.

Champions Tour - Outback Steakhouse Pro-Am
Pick is Bernhard Langer at 7-1 bet365
Played well at the Masters in the first round, and is still ranked 420 in the World despite is age. Is usually around the top of the leaderboard in Champions Tour events, so is likely to be a regular pick.

Ok & off to Japan for their first event of the year.

Japan Tour - Token Homemate Cup
Pick is David Smail at 16-1 bet365
OK a bit harder to pick one here as don't know too much about all the players. Ryo Ishikawa the teenage star is one name most will know, and will undoubtedly win once or twice this year. Was leading here last year till the last round. However I think his trips to the US may have taken it out of him so I'm going to go for David Smail the Kiwi who was 9th last year and played well during the European & Nationwide Events played down under earlier in the year.

Opening Bank 96.86
Bets 12.00
Closing Bank 84.86


Enjoy everyone and happy golfing

Jimmy

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Postby jimmywomble » Mon Apr 20, 2009 9:18 am

Oh dear a disaster, 1 missed cut and the other 5 coming no-where, I hope no-one followed my tips :oops:

Smail hit a 5 over in the first round in Japan which ruined his chances, a 2 under 2nd round left him just the wrong side of the cut.

In Europe (well the European Tour) I was looking good going into the final round, both Dyson & McEvoy were in the top 15, however a 73 for both of them pushed them down the field to 11th & 19th respectively.

Whilst on the other side of the Atlantic Clark seemed to choke (a bit harsh but thats the "in" word on the golf forum) everytime he got near the top 15, he finished 37th. Langer never seemed to get going and just as he looked he might sneak a place in the final round a bogey on 16 & 17 put paid to that and he dropped back to 13th. On the Nationwide I had a first, Bjornstadt made the cut and was handily placed to push on to challenge at least for a place, but then on the 3rd round he struck a triple, bogey, double in 3 holes and finished with an 80, followed up by a 77 on the last day gave me my first last place :wink: .

Better luck next week :hope:

Opening Bank 96.86
Bets 12.00
Returns 0.00
Closing Bank 84.86
Wins 0/11 0%
Places 2/11 18.18%

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