2017 Oscars

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Re: 2017 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Sun Feb 05, 2017 7:10 am

No surprise that Damien Chazelle won the DGA award. Garth Davis gets a 'consolation' prize for missing out on the chance of being Oscar nominated by winning First Time Feature for 'Lion'. Ezra Edelman won over in Documentary Feature for 'O.J.: Made in America'.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lists/ ... ull-966475

'Lion' surprises over at the American Society of Cinematographers awards as it fends off the likes of 'Arrival', 'La La Land', 'Moonlight' and 'Silence'. Can it win the corresponding Oscar!? 'Lion' is 33/1 at Ladbrokes! 'LLL' 1/6, 'Arrival' 7/1 , 'Moonlight' 9/1 and 'Silence' 20/1! Bet365 ever so smart and took it off the board.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lists/ ... ards-96647

'Zootopia' wins big at the Annies and if you weren't convinced by it's frontrunner status then you should be now.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lists/ ... ull-966476

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Re: 2017 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Fri Feb 10, 2017 4:17 pm

Since my account was blocked at Betfred (my Totesport one was closed!), I haven't paid any attention to them but they're the only bookie out there to price up every category at the BAFTAs which are happening on Sunday.

Will try to do a write-up and more importantly see if I can get any bets on it through one of their shops.

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Re: 2017 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Sat Feb 11, 2017 9:40 pm

Could not get a bet on as the staff said it was an online only thing (!?). Eff it. Here are BAFTA film awards odds from Betfred/Totesport and some brief thoughts...

Best Film ~

La La Land 1/7
Moonlight 6/1
Manchester By The Sea 10/1
I Daniel Blake 20/1
Arrival 50/1


I can't see 'LLL' being thwarted by 'Moonlight' here but 'I, Daniel Blake' could be the bizarre spoiler but you won't get rich backing the likely winner that is 'La La Land'.

Best Director ~

Damien Chazelle - La La Land 1/8
Kenneth Lonergan - Manchester By The Sea 7/1
Ken Loach - I, Daniel Blake 8/1
Tom Ford - Nocturnal Animals 40/1
Denis Villeneuve - Arrival 50/1

PREDICTION: Damien Chazelle - 'La La Land'

Seemingly unstoppable barring a surprise from Ken Loach.

Leading Actor ~

Casey Affleck - Manchester By The Sea 1/7
Ryan Gosling - La La Land 6/1
Andrew Garfield - Hacksaw Ridge 14/1
Viggo Mortensen - Captain Fantastic 20/1
Jake Gyllenhaal - Nocturnal Animals 40/1

PREDICTION: Casey Affleck - 'Manchester By The Sea'

Boringly this should go to Casey as this realistically the only category they can give 'Manchester by the Sea' without too much of a fuss. I don't think Ryan Gosling wins as part of a 'La La Land' sweep. I don't believe the money that's apparently going on Andrew Garfield or Viggo Mortensen though.

Leading Actress ~

Emma Stone - La La Land 1/3
Natalie Portman - Jackie 9/4
Amy Adams - Arrival 20/1
Meryl Streep - Florence Foster Jenkins 25/1
Emily Blunt - The Girl On The Train 33/1

PREDICTION: Emma Stone - 'La La Land'

Natalie Portman isn't turning up as she's pregnant & in the US but all the other four are. Isabelle Huppert is apparently presenting this category...which is just delicious. It's surely Emma Stone's award. Any bits of money on Amy Adams is surely wasted...there have been no Emmanuelle Riva 'we know she's winning so we've bet accordingly' type bets going on this year.

Supporting Actor ~

Mahershala Ali - Moonlight 1/4
Aaron Taylor-Johnson - Nocturnal Animals 9/2
Dev Patel - Lion 6/1
Jeff Bridges - Hell or High Water 25/1
Hugh Grant - Florence Foster Jenkins 50/1

PREDICTION: Dev Patel - 'Lion'

...although saying that this is the one people are seemingly betting on. Mahershala Ali has not made the trip to be in London which superficially shouldn't affect his chances but who knows!? If Dev Patel wins then you can't call BAFTA racist! Also, it's a home win so 'double bubble'. I would normally go with the guy from 'Moonlight' in these types of situations but I'm following the money and going with the hunch that Aaron Taylor-Johnson surely won't repeat his Golden Globes win. Dev wins at BAFTA, Mahershala wins the Oscar? It might happen.

Supporting Actress ~

Viola Davis - Fences 1/20
Naomie Harris - Moonlight 12/1
Hayley Squires – I Daniel Blake 12/1
Michelle Williams - Manchester By The Sea 14/1
Nicole Kidman - Lion 50/1

PREDICTION: Viola Davis - 'Fences'

Am slightly bewildered by the money on Hayley Squires but I'm sure if it was serious then her odds wouldn't still be in double figures. Most people have understandably shied away from this as the odds are very skinny on Viola Davis who is the overwhelming favourite and has been since her switch from Lead to Supporting.

Outstanding British Film ~

Selection Price
I, Daniel Blake 1/7
Notes On Blindness 9/2
Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them 10/1
Under The Shadow 25/1
American Honey 25/1

PREDICTION: 'I, Daniel Blake'

Considering it's also nominated in Best Film, it's be a helluva upset if it lost here.

Adapted Screenplay ~

Arrival EVS
Lion EVS
Hidden Figures 7/1
Nocturnal Animals 14/1
Hackshaw Ridge 20/1


No 'Moonlight' means this is fairly open. Saturday night is also the USC SCripter awards. If the rhubarb is to be believed then 'Hidden Figures' is the threat. I think the number of nominations it has might swing it in favour of 'Arrival' though.

Original Screenplay ~

Manchester By the Sea EVS
La La Land 13/8
Moonlight 5/1
I Daniel Blake 5/1
Hell or High Water 50/1

PREDICTION: 'Manchester by the Sea'

If you're going to throw 'Manchester...' a bone somewhere then this is likely one of the few categories, you can give it to. 'LLL' sweeping wouldn't be surprising but an indictment of a hive mind being extremely sheep like. BAA!! Am going with Kenneth Lonergan gets a consolation win here.

Film not in the English Language ~

Son Of Saul 1/2
Mustang 3/1
Toni Erdmann 3/1
Dheepan 40/1
Julieta 40/1

PREDICTION: 'Son of Saul'

Only 'Toni Erdmann' is nominated for an Oscar this year whilst the two market leaders were so but last year. It wouldn't be surprising if 'Toni...' won but 'Son of Saul' is a very hard film to deny a win.

Documentary ~

13th 5/4
The Beatles: Eight Days a Week - The Touring Years 6/4
The Eagle Huntress 7/2
Notes On Blindness 10/1
Weiner 20/1


Only '13th' is nominated for an Oscar and I'd be surprised if The Beatles flick beats it here despite 'home advantage'.

Animated Film ~

Zootropolis 1/5
Kubo and The Two Strings 4/1
Moana 7/1
Finding Dory 20/1

PREDICTION: 'Zootropolis'

Annoyingly retitled for the UK market as 'Zootropolis' as there's some thing else trademarked/copyrighted as 'Zootopia', it should probably fend off a hearty charge from the critically lauded but box office lukewarm entity that is 'Kubo and the Two Strings'.

Cinematography ~

La La Land 1/8
Lion 8/1
Arrival 8/1
Hell Or High Water 25/1
Nocturnal Animals 25/1


'Lion' won the ASC award so if 'LLL' gets unstuck in the technical categories, this might be one of them if the British contingent also agree. Will cowardly go with 'Lion' though despite the obviousness that would be going for 'La La Land' here.

Editing ~

La La Land 1/10
Hacksaw Ridge 8/1
Arrival 8/1
Nocturnal Animals 25/1
Manchester By The Sea 25/1


Boring but I'm guessing some BAFTA members will just tick 'LLL' to win no matter what.

Makeup and Hair ~

Florence Foster Jenkins 8/13
Rogue One 5/4
Doctor Strange 14/1
Nocturnal Animals 25/1
Hacksaw Ridge 25/1

PREDICTION: 'Florence Foster Jenkins'

None of these are nominated for an Oscar meaning there's no pressure here for BAFTA to try and predict the Oscar winner. I wouldn't rule out 'Nocturnalk Animals' with so many nominations to back it up with but 'FFJ' might be a bit more obvious to justify the odds on quote.

Costume Design ~

Mary Zophres - La La Land 1/3
Madeline Fontaine - Jackie 9/4
Consolata Boyle - Florence Foster Jenkins 12/1
Colleen Atwood - Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 25/1
Joanna Johnson - Allied 50/1


In contrast with Make Up and Hair, all five here are nominated for an Oscar. I'd imagine the yellow dress from 'LLL' is enough to get it the win but I wouldn't be surprised with 'Jackie' or 'FFJ' winning. An uneasy vote for 'LLL' here.

Production Design ~

La La Land 1/6
Nocturnal Animals 5/1
Hail, Caesar! 10/1
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 12/1
Doctor Strange 25/1


I'm very uneasy that 'LLL' is such a prohibitive favourite here. I think there are at least two better and detailed sets here. I'm expecting an upset here and going with 'Hail, Caesar1' which is just a much a Valentine to 'old Hollywood' than 'LLL' if not more so. The Art Directors Guild awards are tonight so they may confirm the likeliest winner.

Special Visual Effects ~

The Jungle Book 1/3
Arrival 4/1
Rogue One 4/1
Doctor Strange 25/1
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 25/1

PREDICTION: 'The Jungle Book'

Three of these are nominated for an Oscar with 'Arrival' and 'Fantastic Beasts...' the ones not nominated. The gushing over 'TJB' should easily send it over the top for a fairly easy win here unless there's sentiment for something like 'Rogue One'. 'Doctor Strange' would get my vote but I'm not a voter.

Sound ~

La La Land 1/8
Hacksaw Ridge 6/1
Arrival 8/1
Deepwater Horizon 25/1
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 25/1


Boring but do they go with the musical or the loud films instead? 'La La Land' until further notice.

EE Rising Star ~

Tom Holland 5/6
Ruth Negga EVS
Lucas Hedges 8/1
Anya Taylor-Joy 14/1
Laia Costa 25/1


Ruth Negga ain't turning up as she's filming the second season of 'Preacher' in New Orleans. Which of these five was in the biggest film 'Captain America: Civil War' last year? Tom Holland was (was 'evens' now trimmed into 5/6) so this should be an easy win via public vote. BAFTA usually play a straight bat in this category honouring the result and don't go snooty and overturn the result for someone who better fits their idea of a winner.

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Re: 2017 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Sun Feb 12, 2017 5:43 am

'Moonlight' wins the USC Scripter award and as it faces off against the same four nominees barring a momentum shift, it's very likely going to win Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars.

"La La Land" looks the one to beat in Production Design as it wins Contemporary at the ADG awards with a possible surprising challenge from "Passengers" which won in Fantasy. The other winner was "Hidden Figures" winning in Period but it isn't nominated at the Oscars yet "Hail, Caesar!" who I thought would've won, is.

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Re: 2017 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Sun Feb 12, 2017 8:55 pm

Wow, wow, wow...so many odds against winners.

The Dev Patel gamble was true but Mahershala Ali should still win the Oscar with SAG support possibly more reflecive than BAFTA support.

'Kubo and the Two Strings' beats 'Zootropolis' here but 'Zootopia' is slightly uneasy to win the Oscar now. Disney bloc vote should deny 'Kubo...' the win though.

'Jackie' wins Costume Design. Went one way for Adapted Screenplay but BAFTA went for 'Lion'...it should go to 'Moonlight' at the Oscars though.

'Fantastic Beasts...' gets Production Design at huge odds and is the main threat to 'LLL' at the Oscars as will 'Hacksaw Ridge' in Sound Editing.

People who bet on 'La La Land' to win 10 or more Oscars must be feeling slightly uneasy.

Am so annoyed I didn't sort out my Betfred/Totesport accounts...am sure it's a clerical error rather than I win too much money off them!

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Re: 2017 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Mon Feb 20, 2017 2:21 am

'Arrival' wins Adapted Screenplay at the WGA awards ahead of 'Fences' and 'Hidden Figures'. "Moonlight" which is entered as Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars wins Original Screenplay at WGA though.

"Moonlight" looks good to go to win Adapted Screenplay with faint hopes for "Arrival" or "Lion" to upset. Original Screenplay is 'up for grabs' all of a sudden though.

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Re: 2017 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Tue Feb 21, 2017 6:01 pm

'Hacksaw Ridge' and 'La La Land' won prizes at the Cinema Audio Society awards. Costume Design Guild awards are tonight. I think that's the last of the Guild awards to be given out before Sunday. I suggest 'Jackie' to upset 'La La Land' and coupled with the win at BAFTA to continue its momentum to also win at the Oscars.

BetSafe have come up with a whole load of imaginative set of weird odds on what will happen during the ceremony. I don't have an account there but am very tempted to open one. it has so-so reviews...Roy Brindley complained of very low limits.

Paddy Power traditionally would have weird odds such as on "Who will design the dress of the Best Actress winner?" which is so incredibly niche. This year, they've wisely not put up odds as the supposedly strong rumour is that Emma Stone will be wearing Chanel and possibly gold/yellow in colour.

BWin also have some weird odds but the rigmarole of depositing money let alone withdrawing puts me off...I would be on the BWin Revenge Tour ever since they stiffed me on a bet on the Grammys when they wouldn't pay me on the Dixie Chicks winning Album of the Year a few years back.

Will come up with the rest of my predictions later. Ballots are in today though so odds may very well change.

No one is quoting odds on the Razzies for Saturday!? I believe Paddy Power had some odds but bookies ain't playing this year.

'Batman v Superman' or the Hillary Clinton film seem the most likely winner of Worst Picture. Jesse Eisenberg should edge out Jared Leto in Worst Supporting Actor. Not too sure about any of the other categories.

I fear there may be some engineered ties between 'BvS' and 'Suicide Squad' though.

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Re: 2017 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Wed Feb 22, 2017 2:49 pm

CDG awards went for 'La La Land' and 'Fantastic Beasts...'.

http://deadline.com/2017/02/costume-des ... 201917704/

Had bet on 'Jackie' but am not so confident any more.

I still don't think 'La La Land' will get 10 or more wins. It might win nine at most.

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Re: 2017 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Sat Feb 25, 2017 5:10 pm

I kind of knew it but didn't really think they'd go that political as the Razzies went for the Hillary Clinton movie in Worst Picture, Worst Actor and Worst Actress. I think Betstars had odds up but I'm not too sure of them either to have bothered opening an account with them.

http://www.digitalspy.com/movies/batman ... ie-awards/

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Re: 2017 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Sun Feb 26, 2017 9:44 pm

Last few hours before the show kicks off at around 1:25am GMT so I better hurry up...I'll just go through the headline markets first and whether or not I'm revising any predictions...


As you can see by the blue that there's been a lot of late money on 'Moonlight'. It just seems rather unprecedented if it came stealing in on 'La La Land'. Will the influx of new members swing it for 'Moonlight'!? . If Ladbrokes go 4/1 from 10/1 then there's possibly some sharp money on this but I remain unconvinced that it won't be 'La La Land'. For it to lose after winning the PGA, the DGA and BAFTA seems bizarre. If the actors are going to swing it, it might possibly be for 'Hidden Figures'. I think it's some people acting on rumours and rhubarb that there's enough of a momentum shift for 'Moonlight' to cause an upset.

Mind you, I stuck doggedly with 'The Big Short' last year as 'Spotlight' swooped in.


http://variety.com/2017/film/in-content ... 201991531/
http://www.awardscircuit.com/oscar-pred ... n-picture/

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Re: 2017 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Sun Feb 26, 2017 9:55 pm


Similarly people are punting on Barry Jenkins to cause an upset. There is supposed to be a backlash towards 'La La Land' and the thinking is that 'Moonlight' will be the beneficiary so people likely aren't betting on a hunch...or are they? I'd hate to think there were some loose lips at PriceWaterhouseCooper and that wow, we are going to get a couple of shockers at the end of the night. I think it's some people hoping to get lucky at big odds as they ain't gonna get rich backing Damien Chazelle.

Damien's won the DGA and BAFTA. I feel it seems bizarre if those who also are eligible to vote at AMPAS desert him now. History beckons for one of Damien Chazelle (youngest Best Director winner ever) or Barry Jenkins (first black Best Director winner ever). I'm doggedly sticking with the DGA winner Damien Chazelle though.

VARIETY PICKS: Damien Chazelle - 'La La Land'.
AWARDS CIRCUIT PICKS: Damien Chazelle - 'La La Land'
STEREOMAN PICKS: Damien Chazelle - 'La La Land'

http://www.awardscircuit.com/oscar-pred ... -director/

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Re: 2017 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Sun Feb 26, 2017 10:13 pm


Late money on Denzel Washington and...Viggo Mortensen. Have been listening to a lot of rumours and rhubarb and I am guessing that people are reacting to some vox pop as to what people are voting for and Viggo Mortensen is one of the names being bandied about. This generation of awards junkies have yet to see an absolute shocker like Art Carney win for 'Harry and Tonto' (look it up, kids!) so I would never say "NEVER!!" but I'd be absolutely floored let alone stunned if Aragorn wins. The closest to a "HOW DID THAT HAPPEN!?" was Adrien Brody back in 2003 where he beat SAG and BAFTA winner Daniel Day-Lewis.

I'm also guessing the apparent backlash against Casey Affleck's touchy-feely antics are supposed to count against him, He was the supposed winner since Telluride but is there more of an appetite for Denzel Washington? The guy who wins at SAG hasn't lost in twelve years ever since Johnny Depp got a surprise win.

Do you back the SAG/Oscars streak (Denzel), the longtime frontrunner (Casey) or possibly the biggest upset in the acting categories ever (Viggo)? I'm backing the streak and Denzel Washington to triumph from this melee. The narrative of a majority non-white set of winners seems too delicious to pass and AMPAS usually do not mind rewarding people with multiple Oscars over nominees that are probably more deserving (you can take your pick).

Have a cheeky fiver at 100/1+ on Viggo by all means if you want but it likely won't be a winning bet. If they want to reward 'Manchester by the Sea' then there are really only two categories, it's going to have a chance...here and Original Screenplay and both are not certain.

VARIETY PICKS: Denzel Washington - 'Fences'
AWARDS CIRCUIT PICKS: Denzel Washington - 'Fences'
STEREOMAN PICKS: Denzel Washington - 'Fences'

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