GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2022 - Early Thoughts part 1

Happy Medium
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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2022 - Early Thoughts part 1

Postby Happy Medium » Mon Jan 17, 2022 4:02 pm

Just wanted to post some thoughts from the other day I lost.
Braeside I agree Happy, could be interesting in soft national, old style, very Presenting, a big barrel :D
The winner in the PP at Leopardstown not too small Presenting as well. Jumping travelling...
Again I was not bowled over by Enjoy D'allens finish there, flat out and he is pretty small and low. Just not sure about him at all
and having been the one who bought him up by name, maybe its just the demise of Latest Exhibition thats making me feel this way about him, I saw Latest as more of an Aintree prospect. I just don't see Enjoy winning, its funny he doesn't seem to 'enjoy' himself enough, that might see him round in a business like manner but he lacks a spark and a finish. Not too keen.

Certainly Braeside and School Boy are young and green looking, much like Minella Times and Farclas last Yr!
there could be a big day for them both next Yr or this! Braeside up in OR enou by to get in the big one maybe?.. like many a presenting horse I like their scope and that they look like they have more to give once they learn.
Can it really be another year for an unfinished looking winner?! there's alot of it about..
I agree not targeting this race seems to be creating a void, esp when hopes at the end of last term are not really performing.

I was wondering about form lines around/ in front of Mister Fogpatches, who seems to lack a gear to ever win himself.
Braeside beat him 22l in the national chase at Cork.
Run Wild Fred, Farclas only marginally in front of Fogpatches recently and as usual I'm looking back wondering if we really saw any great quality in the SN with Mighty and Dingo rated a bit higher there, wasn't that much put between them and Fogpatches :?

As for Freewheelin it was disappointing, but I'm inclined to be happy he's got 4 legs and was on the wrong ground at this point. Hopefully like a few he's not peaked and a flash in the pan.
Like I said I feel we are holding a bunch of dodgy looking cards right now.
Completely agree with you about School Boy Hours kj 23
I'd assumed his Irish OR142 wouldn't be good enough to get in but, if Galvin doesn't line up, there'll likely be a much lower OR for the topweight this year and, in any event, the possibility of a 2-3lb "Irish premium" down the weights when they're framed, so maybe he'll get in off his current mark.
The Paddy Power Hdcp's become a good pointer in recent years (especially for JP's GN hopefuls - Gilgamboa, Anibale Fly, Minella Times).
Like Minella Times, he's unexposed at 26f+ (though only beaten 3.5L by Eklat De Rire as Beginners over 25.5f) but his pedigree looks good GN-wise. From the family of Bonanza Boy so, despite the handicap hike since Leopardstown, may well have a lot more to show the further the trip.
Will definitely be carrying a shilling or two of mine e/w if he lines up and the ground's decent.

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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2022 - Early Thoughts part 1

Postby mike campo13 » Tue Jan 18, 2022 5:47 am

Elegant Escape entered at taunton on Saturday against Ramses and Yala Enki.
Yala just had an extra 2 lbs added so hope he doesn't thrash him on Saturday and ruin his OR150 mark.

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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2022 - Early Thoughts part 1

Postby mike campo13 » Tue Jan 18, 2022 5:48 am

Elegant Escape entered at taunton on Saturday against Ramses and Yala Enki.
Yala just had an extra 2 lbs added so hope he doesn't thrash him on Saturday and ruin his OR150 mark.

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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2022 - Early Thoughts part 1

Postby Systemsman » Tue Jan 18, 2022 11:21 am

Agree with redflash on
Secret Reprieve
Time To Get Up

Secret Reprieve while he has a good RPR for this GN season does not have a good enough previous RPR for the pre GN season which implies he peaked for the Ladbroke Chase and may find it hard to win again for a time. On OR 138 he will not qualify. Not on my short list.

Time To Get Up - no form worth talking about this season and only 5 chase runs. Would need to win a good race this season to get in my short list. Does have an acceptable RPR for pre GN season but needs one for this season.

Good Boy Bobby - glad this one came up otherwise I would have missed it. Fits the "Minella Times" profile winner type. Certainly has the right RPR for this season and past seasons so if he runs I will be having something on it. Has a win at 3m in a C1 G3 chase so in profile not dissimilar to Minella Times and not to be dismissed. Also has a good best TS rating. Negative that the biggest race with a 1/2/3 is a 12 runner chase (but has a 4/17 too). Certainly would not dismiss this one at this stage. OR 150 is acceptable for a winner. On my shortlist.

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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2022 - Early Thoughts part 1

Postby Systemsman » Tue Jan 18, 2022 11:30 am

School Boy Hours
Has OK RPR for this season (just) but not for previous seasons. Best TS rating very low for a GN winner. Not on my shortlist - watching brief.

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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2022 - Early Thoughts part 1

Postby Happy Medium » Tue Jan 18, 2022 12:56 pm

School Boy Hours
Has OK RPR for this season (just) but not for previous seasons. Best TS rating very low for a GN winner. Not on my shortlist - watching brief.
We've all got our own methods and views but I'm curious about your comment Systemsman, as his best 3m+ RPR was set last season; RPR147, notably set at the furthest trip he's tried (25.5f).
Does your system set a higher benchmark RPR for prev season than current season?

No worries in any event cos, as it usually does, the RP will retrospectively adjust it up when he wins on 9 April :D

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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2022 - Early Thoughts part 1

Postby Mike N » Tue Jan 18, 2022 1:33 pm

Noel Meade said about School Boy Hours after his last run.... "I think he'll get three-and-a-half miles". Probably an Irish National horse then.

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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2022 - Early Thoughts part 1

Postby Systemsman » Tue Jan 18, 2022 4:23 pm

School Boy Hours.

I have my own system readjusting RPR's before and after weights out.
I certainly make a Grade B 100K chase win over 3miles off 10.08 and RPR 145
significantly better than
2nd at 3m/1.5f 6K beginners chase off 12stone and RPR 147 (all but one runner running off 12stone).

However, I will concede that any GN runners with John P McManus as an owner must be watched carefully. Another win in a good race (C1 preferably) or a close 2nd and he could get in my short list but not currently.

For the GN ideally, this season's best RPR should be higher than previous seasons unless the previous seasons was a very high mark (I am keeping the exact figure to myself put will post my short and longer list).

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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2022 - Early Thoughts part 1

Postby miinnehoma 2 » Tue Jan 18, 2022 6:13 pm

mc -

Big day on Saturday for your lad - only 5 runners.

Just thinking Elegant Escape might do a Comply Or Die this year.

Both back from 600+ days off the track.

-OP21 Comply Or Die -

16th in Oct.
PU in Nov.
2nd in Dec.

Then on 4th prep wins the Eider in Feb with top weight and then the GN.

Strange that Betfair won't price Elegant up for GN.

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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2022 - Early Thoughts part 1

Postby miinnehoma 2 » Wed Jan 19, 2022 5:18 pm

At last, Farclas and Tiger Roll down for 2 races.
Both might run in a hurdle race this Saturday in Navan and both also down for the Cheltenham Glenfarclas chase in March.

Cloudy Glen down for a Doncaster chase on the 29th Jan.
On OR148 - I wonder is that wise ?

Blimey. Run Wild Fred is down for 8 races.

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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2022 - Early Thoughts part 1

Postby mike campo13 » Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:19 pm

A staying on second for Elegant Escape on Saturday will do fine.
Always the optimist !

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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2022 - Early Thoughts part 1

Postby miinnehoma 2 » Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:59 pm

Go on, go on - Elegant Escape -
This is his third prep so a close 2nd or 3rd would be encouraging.

Farclas out of 1.40 Navan hurdle race but Tiger and Anibale Fly to run.

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