GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2022 - Early Thoughts part 1

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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2022 - Early Thoughts part 1

Postby redflash » Thu Jan 13, 2022 10:30 am

Good day everyone, nice to see the search gathering pace, for me We should totally forget about Galvin Elliot and the owners have categorically stated he is not going to the national.
Can I open a debate on why the top British trainers treat the national with disdain and never treat it as a true target unlike the top Irish trainers.
By top British I’m aiming the gun towards Nichols (yes Nichols did it with Neptune colognes but only due to hales insistence he ran in national), Henderson, Tizzard, sherwood (yes Sherwood won it with many clouds but the was 100%only due to Hemings insistence he ran in national).
With the prize money and safer course why do they never really target the national ? Since the modifications and increase in money around 2012 was it? How many horses (apart from many clouds( have they sent to the national with it as there main target or even runners with a genuinely top chance ?
Last edited by redflash on Thu Jan 13, 2022 11:16 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2022 - Early Thoughts part 1

Postby redflash » Thu Jan 13, 2022 10:33 am

Just to add for me personally it’s hard to genuinely really fancy any runners from previous posts trainers, despite some very good horses who if aimed at national as main target could do something special

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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2022 - Early Thoughts part 1

Postby miinnehoma 2 » Thu Jan 13, 2022 10:10 pm

Connections of Enjoy D'allan believe he has what it takes to run a big race in the Aintree Grand National. If he stays on OR148 he should be guaranteed to make the cut. Trainer reckons maybe just one more prep over hurdles and then to Aintree.

8 yrs old.
2 preps sofar -73
OR148/rpr153.
10 chases 2 - 5 - 3 = 100%.
Life runs 19 - 2 - 6 - 3 = 58%.
Top 3 @ 29f. Irish Nat.
Has only won a 10k nvch and a 9k hcap chase @ 2m6f.
No Wild Risk but that didn't stop Mon Mome or Bindaree.

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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2022 - Early Thoughts part 1

Postby mike campo13 » Fri Jan 14, 2022 7:27 am

Hi Miinne.

I'm disappointed that he pulled out of the Kempton race tomorrow.
English handicapper now likely to add two or three pounds on GN weights day, for being Irish, particularly as the Irish horses looked so much better and therefor better handicapped than the English last year at Chelts and Aintree.

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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2022 - Early Thoughts part 1

Postby Systemsman » Fri Jan 14, 2022 1:00 pm

Enjoy D'allen does have a nice profile. For me his that his RPR prior to this season is a bit on the low side (best was RPR 149 off 10.10) and this season while better is still RPR 153 off 11.06. So to make my very short list he would need another run (and probably a win or good 2nd) and an even better RPR. Still one for the watch list for sure after that 3rd at 29f in the Irish National.

I now have seven runners in my short list and six runners on my watch list.

No anti post bet so far as the three or so that look rather good we can't be sure are running this year yet.

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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2022 - Early Thoughts part 1

Postby Systemsman » Fri Jan 14, 2022 5:08 pm

Just having a re look at the Irish National.

Freewheelin Dylan - just wondering if this one peaked for the April 2021 Irish National and maybe thats as good as it gets? - certainly the post-Irish National form says that may be the case - no decent RPR this season and the last two runs are UR/PU. Views?

Perhaps we should look at the 2nd and 3rd at better prospects - Run Wild Fred and Enjoy D'allen ?

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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2022 - Early Thoughts part 1

Postby Happy Medium » Fri Jan 14, 2022 5:31 pm

Just having a re look at the Irish National.

Freewheelin Dylan - just wondering if this one peaked for the April 2021 Irish National and maybe thats as good as it gets? - certainly the post-Irish National form says that may be the case - no decent RPR this season and the last two runs are UR/PU. Views?

Perhaps we should look at the 2nd and 3rd at better prospects - Run Wild Fred and Enjoy D'allen ?
Yeap, in my view great each way value at 100/1 for 5 places (1/4 odds), for the reasons I set out on page 11.
Not disputing Fred and Enjoy D’Allen (both 2nd season chasers, that have a near-monopoly on GN winners since the course changes) are more progressive but Fred will carry too much weight. Enjoy D’Allen also good e/W shout but wouldn’t want more than about 10.12 on his back.

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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2022 - Early Thoughts part 1

Postby kj 23 » Fri Jan 14, 2022 6:46 pm

Just wanted to post some thoughts from the other day I lost.
Braeside I agree Happy, could be interesting in soft national, old style, very Presenting, a big barrel :D
The winner in the PP at Leopardstown not too small Presenting as well. Jumping travelling...
Again I was not bowled over by Enjoy D'allens finish there, flat out and he is pretty small and low. Just not sure about him at all
and having been the one who bought him up by name, maybe its just the demise of Latest Exhibition thats making me feel this way about him, I saw Latest as more of an Aintree prospect. I just don't see Enjoy winning, its funny he doesn't seem to 'enjoy' himself enough, that might see him round in a business like manner but he lacks a spark and a finish. Not too keen.

Certainly Braeside and School Boy are young and green looking, much like Minella Times and Farclas last Yr!
there could be a big day for them both next Yr or this! Braeside up in OR enou by to get in the big one maybe?.. like many a presenting horse I like their scope and that they look like they have more to give once they learn.
Can it really be another year for an unfinished looking winner?! there's alot of it about..
I agree not targeting this race seems to be creating a void, esp when hopes at the end of last term are not really performing.

I was wondering about form lines around/ in front of Mister Fogpatches, who seems to lack a gear to ever win himself.
Braeside beat him 22l in the national chase at Cork.
Run Wild Fred, Farclas only marginally in front of Fogpatches recently and as usual I'm looking back wondering if we really saw any great quality in the SN with Mighty and Dingo rated a bit higher there, wasn't that much put between them and Fogpatches :?

As for Freewheelin it was disappointing, but I'm inclined to be happy he's got 4 legs and was on the wrong ground at this point. Hopefully like a few he's not peaked and a flash in the pan.
Like I said I feel we are holding a bunch of dodgy looking cards right now.

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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2022 - Early Thoughts part 1

Postby The Seven Pillars of Wisdom » Sat Jan 15, 2022 3:46 pm

The fly in the ointment is The Jam Man. Hasn’t run in a Chase since the Troytown romp in 2020. Won his last three chase starts. His trainer is very difficult to second guess sometimes! That said over both hurdles and fences he has won over the furthest trips he has encountered. Is 150 too high, I don’t know but classy dam line, looks as though he will stay and a canny trainer. Interesting if he gets an entry.
He’s clearly well. Are they planning a tilt at this or something else? Blowed if I know.

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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2022 - Early Thoughts part 1

Postby Corbiere » Sat Jan 15, 2022 6:00 pm

Hi all Corbs is back for another fun few months trying to find the winner of THE WORLD GREATEST RACE.

Just read through all of this season's wonderful posts, as usual so informative .

Whoever asked about The Jam Man in a recent post , I heard from Trainer today he is aiming him at Irish GN, for which he may be worth an interest after today's great run. He didn't seem interested in qualifying for the Pertemps.

Interested to hear people's thoughts on following:
Secret Reprieve
Time To Get Up
Good Boy Bobby

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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2022 - Early Thoughts part 1

Postby The Seven Pillars of Wisdom » Sat Jan 15, 2022 7:11 pm

Hi all Corbs is back for another fun few months trying to find the winner of THE WORLD GREATEST RACE.

Just read through all of this season's wonderful posts, as usual so informative .

Whoever asked about The Jam Man in a recent post , I heard from Trainer today he is aiming him at Irish GN, for which he may be worth an interest after today's great run. He didn't seem interested in qualifying for the Pertemps.

Interested to hear people's thoughts on following:
Secret Reprieve
Time To Get Up
Good Boy Bobby
All trained the wrong side of the sea! When Good Boy Bobby won that second bumper at Chepstow I thought he would develop into a Grade 1 horse. He has slightly disappointed me by just being a decent handicapper despite what he has done this season. He is closesly related to Hennessy the bet365 winner so he could stay a bit further but 150 in top company looks a bit steep to me now. I’m not sure what 160 horses will go for it this year but we are back up to £1m this year. That won’t be lost on the Irish.

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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2022 - Early Thoughts part 1

Postby redflash » Sun Jan 16, 2022 9:26 am

Corbs
My views on secret reprieve time to get up and good boy Bobby
Secret reprieve
Only 7 chases big negative
Official chase rating now 138 so will struggle to get in (has 4 weeks to get that up)

time to get up
Only 5 chases
Official chase rating 144 so should get in

Good boy Bobby
As 7 says official chase rating a bit high fir me
Never won or placed beyond 24 furlongs big negative
A bit unproven in big runner fields best is 4th in 17 runner chase over 2m4 (20furlongs)
For me probably not good enough

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