GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2022 - Early Thoughts part 1

Systemsman
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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2022 - Early Thoughts part 1

Postby Systemsman » Sun Jan 09, 2022 12:13 pm

Done a little more research for the team.

You can almost forget any GN runner who has not had a run (of any sort) by the end of the first week in January in the GN winning sason - that a run by the end of today. This is a twenty year+ trend for GN winners. I would not exclude looking again at a runner who won a big chase at a long distance with a very good RPR rating but it would certainly be a major trends buster to ten win the GN.

So we can probably exclude:
Escaria Ten
Next Destination
Castlebawn West
Happygolucky
Easysland

Others??

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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2022 - Early Thoughts part 1

Postby Systemsman » Sun Jan 09, 2022 12:18 pm

Aye Right looking good on trends - any views on this one?
OR 159
Won C1 chase this season.
2nd to Cloth Cap in 2020 Ladbrooke Trophy (G3) over 3m2f.

Possibly a few pounds now too high for his own good after that win

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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2022 - Early Thoughts part 1

Postby miinnehoma 2 » Sun Jan 09, 2022 5:17 pm

Systems - AYE RIGHT -

On Tues 4th Jan. to Racing TV.

Aye Right's trainer Harriet Graham ruled out a crack at the Randox 2022 Grand National, but it could be on the agenda in 2023 if the owners approve.

“They are not keen on the National. Possibly next year, they said,”

***********

Freewheelin Dylan - woeful today - PU before 3 out.
What a start to the season, Unseated in Xcountry and now PU in a hurdle.
Must be sticking on OR146.

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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2022 - Early Thoughts part 1

Postby Happy Medium » Mon Jan 10, 2022 8:22 am

Systems - AYE RIGHT -

On Tues 4th Jan. to Racing TV.

Aye Right's trainer Harriet Graham ruled out a crack at the Randox 2022 Grand National, but it could be on the agenda in 2023 if the owners approve.

“They are not keen on the National. Possibly next year, they said,”

***********

Freewheelin Dylan - woeful today - PU before 3 out.
What a start to the season, Unseated in Xcountry and now PU in a hurdle.
Must be sticking on OR146.
"woeful"?
Same could have been said for Aurora's Encore prior to his 2013 win. His season's form read UR, 68L 13/16 , PU , 24L 4/6 , 46L 5/13, F , 53L 5/8
Answer? Ground. Aurora's Encore was a different horse on decent ground and same goes for Dylan.
It was soft ground yesterday, which he hates.
I'd say it was mission accomplished for connections in terms of keeping the wheels oiled over hurdles so as not to mess with a perfect GN OR146, with eyes on the big spring prize.
Since his Irish GN win, the form of which has been franked by both 2nd (now 18lbs higher OR) and 3rd (6lbs higher), on decent ground and at further than 3m (conditions in which, in 12 races under Rules, Dylan’s made the frame in 75%, with 8 wins or near-misses):
- he lumped topweight off 8lbs higher OR145 to be 3L 4th over 31f, conceding 17lbs to the Scot Nat close 3rd
- this season started with a creditable 9L defeat over 25f in July's Kilbeggan Midlands National
- was going nicely and very much in contention in that XC when a soft UR 6 out (jockey to blame)
He has Wild Risk via the sire and on the damside a relatively rare X-Factor link directly to Wild Risk; shared by Vics Canvas (also via Buckskin, Amberleigh House's sire) and Saint Are
Write him off if you want to but 100/1 (5 places, 1/4 odds) for the GN is great each way value in my view.

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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2022 - Early Thoughts part 1

Postby miinnehoma 2 » Mon Jan 10, 2022 11:46 pm

I see Snow Leopardess is down to OR145 - down 2 lbs without a run.
Might be a wee bit tight, 145 was bottom weight last year. Hope she gets a few extra lbs on weights day cause of the Becher.

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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2022 - Early Thoughts part 1

Postby mike campo13 » Tue Jan 11, 2022 5:44 am

Enjoy Dallen entered in the 3.15, 3 mile h/cp chase at Kempton on Saturday.

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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2022 - Early Thoughts part 1

Postby Happy Medium » Tue Jan 11, 2022 9:43 am

Enjoy Dallen entered in the 3.15, 3 mile h/cp chase at Kempton on Saturday.
Well spotted mike.
Braeside (on my radar screen if soft or worse in April), Death Duty and Porterstown winner Smoking Gun as well.
Will be handy to flush out a mark from the British handicapper, whether running or not.

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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2022 - Early Thoughts part 1

Postby mike campo13 » Tue Jan 11, 2022 2:38 pm

Thanks Happy
A good ploy for connections if he runs. Assuming our handicapper adds a couple of pounds, its their opportunity to show the handicapper that its unjust. Assuming he doesn't win on Saturday of course !
Still adding to my Elegant Escape win bet at 50/1 with Hills.
I'm probably mad as recent runs over the last couple of years would suggest he may well; be finished in the top grade.
However, if that proves not to be the case in months ahead, he's now on a competitive looking handicap mark of OR150, a Hennessy and a Welsh National winner with Good Dosage, CMP and Wild Risk on the Dams side.
I've taken the risk and giving him the benefit of the doubt for now as Tizzard's stable have been regularly in and out of form over the last couple of years and perhaps EE has simply run at the wrong times.
A bit of a stretch I know.

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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2022 - Early Thoughts part 1

Postby Systemsman » Tue Jan 11, 2022 5:32 pm

Any views on this one who looks good on trends.

Fiddlerontheroof OR 157 - 2nd in the Ladbroke Chase at Newbury over 3m 2f in a G3.

I now have a reasonable short list which at this stage excludes anything that has not run so far this season.

Does anyone have an idea when the first round of voting will normally start and end?

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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2022 - Early Thoughts part 1

Postby Mike N » Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:15 pm

First round of voting will be after the weights come out up until the end of the weekend before the Cheltenham Festival.

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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2022 - Early Thoughts part 1

Postby Happy Medium » Wed Jan 12, 2022 9:12 am

Any views on this one who looks good on trends.

Fiddlerontheroof OR 157 - 2nd in the Ladbroke Chase at Newbury over 3m 2f in a G3.

I now have a reasonable short list which at this stage excludes anything that has not run so far this season.

Does anyone have an idea when the first round of voting will normally start and end?
Great shout Systemsman.
The way I see things he's the most interesting of those rated >OR155, assuming Galvin waits a year before taking his GN chance.
2nd season chasers (like him, and others of course) have clearly outperformed post-2012 - 24% of total runners contributing 6 of the last 7 GN winners, with only Tiger Roll winning back-to-back breaking the monopoly, though he did so only by holding off 2nd season chaser Magic of Light.
Damside very much fits that of a modern GN winner - damsire Arc-winner Montjeu and 2nd damsire Midyan both have progeny that were Group 1 winners at 10f+ and Montjeu also contributes Wild Risk.
Great run in the Hennessy alludes to Many Clouds, both starting the season winning the same big 20f chase at Carlisle. Despite near-missing in the Hennessy, Fiddlers RPR164 for that run is better than the 162 accorded Many Clouds for his Newbury win, though the latter went on to score higher still in the Cotswold Chase.
Personally, I'm not convinced of those relative Hennessy ratings (none of the first 6 home in November have yet made the frame in 5 runs since) and I'm also not convinced the Tizzard's is the best yard for a GN aspirant to hail from.
He has an entry for the Gold Cup. Many Clouds ran in both in 2015 (6th in the GC) but there was a 4 week gap that year - this year it's just 3.
Anibale Fly made the GN frame in 2019 after his GC near-miss 22 days prior but arguably might have gone a lot closer at Aintree without the recent hard race. Maybe a decent spin without being in the mix at the business end at Cheltenham would be the best prep for him.
Probably also wants Galvin to line up to keep his weight nearer to 11.00.
Certainly ticks a lot of boxes for a 33/1 chance.

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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2022 - Early Thoughts part 1

Postby Mike N » Wed Jan 12, 2022 2:57 pm

Personally, I don't see Fiddlerontheroof running here in 2022.

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