Horse racing Discussion April 2021

[meoldmate]

In the race for the jockeyship for the national hunt season, poor Harry Cobden is going to be left behind with limited rides.
Harry Cobden has four rides on Thursday and all practically outsiders, work cut out for sure.
For Thursday and no April fools day folks Brian Hughes and Harry Skelton have a full book of rides at Uttoxeter and Wetherby.

Harry Cobden riding at Ffos Las with four

1.55 Coastal Drift 28/1 been dropped three pounds but may need more to beat inform Joueur Bresilien.

3.00 Carrick Roads 12/1 still high in the handicappers grip and possibly Scorpion Haze may be going one place better than last time.

4.37 Sizing At Midnight 10/1 pulled up the last twice and I have a horse from my watch list, Volcano but this one has seven pounds more to be considered with, capable of putting in a big run.

5.10 Miss Mahmite 16/1 she does look interesting with her place position from Doncaster.

I give Harry Cobden the one victory here and this is with his last ride
5.10 Miss Mahmite 16/1

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Brian Hughes rides at Wetherby with seven

1.15 Barrichello 5/4 has had many seconds can he put it right with a win , in my eyes he can.

1.45 Paucer 4/1 dropped into plating class race could se him a step in the right direction.

2.15 Snougar 100/30 has a good chance and hopefully keep Las Tunas at bay, who is also a c/d winner.

2.50 Domaine De L'Isio 9/4 impressive display of jumping at Kempton could be following up.

3.20 Diamond Fort 11/2 might find it hard to give Roxboro Road 15 pounds

3.50 Sigurd 7/4 won over c/d eleven days a go, can land this for the second win on the bounce.

Brian Hughes could be having a good day with

1.15 Barrichello 5/4
1.45 Paucer 4/1
2.15 Snougar 100/30
2.50 Domaine De L'Isio 9/4
3.50 Sigurd 7/4

Possible five, could.
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Harry Skelton has six rides at Uttoxeter and a very good percent are favourites.

1.00 Riggs 5/6 second at Sandown in a grade three, step down can find himself in the winners enclosure not runner up spot.

2.05 Eclair D'Ainay 6/4 has to give all his rivals weight and can do so.

2.40 Stormy Flight 3/1 been placed many times , maybe his day today.

3.10 Off The Hook 13/8 soft going last time and possible reason for taking a wide route of things, could be in the thick of things and giving his best for a result.

3.40 Getaway Mag 9/4 Uttoxeter a front runners course and she likes to dominate, big run.

4.45 Get A Tonic 6/4 might be a solid sort here, with a mares race under her belt with a third.

Oh my, I have Harry to collect on all practically

1.00 Riggs 5/6
2.40 Stormy Flight 3/1
3.10 Off The Hook 13/8
3.40 Getaway Mag 9/4
4.45 Get A Tonic 6/4

Equal amount with Brian, Harry to come up with a handful too.

[9713iw]

Hi

Thought I would look and see what delights may come our way for Good Friday and was disappointed to see that its all weather fare from Newcastle, Chelmsford and Lingfield where its Champions day. where sponsors are Ladbrokes, Betway & Bombardier. Closer look at the Lingfield races all Class 2 races, shows some fantastic prizemoney, most races £38k to the winner and over £1k down to 6th with the big race (4.15) winner getting £51k with £1.5k to 6th. All in all total prizemoney for the day is £500k. Now one would have thought that each race would have been full of runners given the complaints about 'not enough prizemoney' . Regrettably no, 51 entries for the 6 'big' races then 14 for the Apprentice race worth £25k (£12.8k to the winner). Frankly you have to wonder why sponsors get involved, OK its televised and maybe there name is out there regardless of the number of runners. The 4.15 worth £51.5k to the winner has attracted 6 entries so the last placed is guaranteed £1510 (probably only a couple of days fees etc). Now it maybe that some potential runners are over in Meydan but come on 6 runners with ratings from 91 to 111 so not exactly classic standard. I'm starting to believe that Trainers and Owners get what they deserve, if they don't support racedays like this then they dont deserve increased prizemoney.

A quick look at Chelmsford and Newcastle shows a similar situation. Newcastle's big race is a Class 1 Listed Race no less 'Ladbrokes Burradon Stakes' a £50 race with £28k to the winner - 4 entries with 4th getting £2.8 for turning up. Chelmsford's big race a class2 £19k effort with £10k to the winner only 5 entries with 4th getting £1.2k.

The other thing people say is that there is too much racing and if tomorrow is anything to go by then yes there probably is. However if it was only Lingfield and you could pad out their low entry with 'possibles' from Newcastle and Chelmsford I'm not sure you would be getting full fields either. Maybe there isn't enough Class 2 'winter' runners to go around with the low grades being the norm, maybe flat is still seen as the 'summer' sport and winter is NH like old times. However this experiment of trying to bring up the quality of 'all weather' racing has been going on for years now and it seems to me that its not working. Perhaps now is the time to revert to an entirely low grade form of all weather racing, class 4 and lower with maybe a few class 3s, and stop trying to push for something that there seems to be no real desire for with owners and trainers.

Iain

[Crofty11]

After 4 days of my little experiment, ended up just over 100 points down. A lot of effort for not a lot of fun. The main lesson as i said is no EW unless 25/1 and above and i will take lower rices when i think one can go well.


Today i have have gone for one at FFlos Lass

1.55 Joueur Bressilin 13/2 win

It runs the course well and is a CD winner, the trainer had B Hughes up when it won last time out over fences today its off 122 just 1lb higher than that win, today Angus Celeda is up claiming 7lb and that brings his weight down to below his CD win.

The risk of course is the bounce and that things will go a little too quick over hurdles

[meoldmate]

9713iw very good view, to be honest I agree with you, what is the point for a sponsor to put up a lucrative fee and find under six runners fighting out for a prize,
As possibly stated to many races and probably is, look at Ireland, they had no racing on Monday or Tuesday and look at today with Clonmel double figure fields with the highest winning fee of 7,000 euros
Today's jump meetings from Uttoxeter and Wetherby all small fields and it looks like they are catering for the jockey championship and nothing more, as there is no exciting traces on show, as far as I am concern.

What I think racing should do, give days a miss like Ireland and we would see better and bigger fields with decent handicaps appearing and prize money sort after by trainers and owners.
Even though they may have to race a horse out of the handicap or not and in a class that it may struggle in, so be it.

We seen what a farce what has occurred with the flat naming selling class races as class seven handicaps, these horses appear her as they cannot win in any other races, they are not just good enough.
Maybe it is not a farce but helping in a way to keeping owners and trainers who have horses that are not that good, not every horse is a very good one, like the human race not everyone can run at the top level but they can run at a level that suits.

As punting fans of the horse racing world, nothing better than sitting down with a good handicap to figure out what horse can do what and find the winner and a good price to go with it, now we cannot as the fields are small and the favourite is a price you cannot back.

Take the Grand National, this race was once upon a time wit ha field of 40 runners and ten will be in the handicap and the rest will be out and if the ground is perfect, the top ten will be resulting with the winner, now they are all in the handicap and we have start looking for different angles, which is good fun too, as there is a big field and a decent price to figure with.

Why is it a handicap of the Grand National statue get big fields and a handicap at say Uttoxeter for today end up with six, surely not every owner and trainer are looking after the horses mark/

Something has to be sorted, funny thing is, everyone practically sings from the same song sheet but nothing gets done.

[meoldmate]

Crofty11 I also like the look of this one looking for a second win on the trot but Harry Cobden rides for Colin Tizzard and the ground could be more suitable for COASTAL DRIFT and this ones 40/1 looks attractive to play each way with four places.
Might do the rev/forecast

Both were not that good.

[meoldmate]

Following the Champion jockeyship could be costly one winner from the three main players.
They all have a rest on Friday, ready for Saturday.

[Crofty11]

Well i am a foolish punter, yesterday i was saying that my major lesson was not to do EW under 25/1. So i picked the one i posted here in the morning and it ran last...later in the day after chores!!. I thought i like one in the last at FL. 10lb claimer up, did a little write up for the comps it was at 9/1. Yep did it EW and of course it won.

It is hard to change ..

[Crofty11]

Tricky stuff today in th end i have gone for an improving sort at Lingfield

44.45 Fox Duty Free 10/1 WIN!!

Racing up the weights since joining new yard and has won his last three here, he tends to run bit keenly at the start of his races and a decent pace here should suit, he needs to defy another weight raise but he is certainly improving.

[Desijo]

Brace Yourself / Irish Grand National
An early look at Monday's Irish Grand National
This novice of Noel Meades has been lightly raced and obviously has been aimed at this race.
Finished 2nd over course and distance in November travelling well and finishing behind Court Maid.
Has a big weight pull with that one and the drying ground is definitely a positive for Brace Yourself.
Has run well after a break before and has been kept for this race.
Carries a nice low weight and looks a solid each way bet.
Currently 25/1.
Shop around for extra places.
Most bookies are paying non runner money back.
Good luck if you play

[KimberliteCandy]

Interesting points being made about field sizes, and it’s something I’ve been thinking about. I saw Patrick Veitch a while back on Luck on Sunday complaining that there was too much racing in the UK for punters and fans to get through, and all I could think was “yeah, good!”
I’ve spent years working out how to streamline what I do so I can get through as much racing as possible in a morning, and still get a price before it goes. That’s part of my edge!

I’ve been changing my mind though. I don’t know if it’s as simple as this, but my understanding is that the UKs bloated fixture list is all about supporting the betting industry. Strong betting industry equals strong levies and that will in turn support racing. But racing is struggling still.

Then you’ve got the other issue of how betting firms treat punters. It’s impossible to maintain a winning account, they facilitate and benefit from addiction and misery, all while seemingly to be the only beneficiaries from the current system.
So if owners, trainers, fans, punters are all losing out, what’s the point? There must be some hefty barriers in place stopping us from setting up a french style system instead. I’m sure smarter people than me are trying to sort it out and I know I don’t have the strongest grasp on the politics of the game.
But there must be a better way!

[Arc Jimmy]

With all 3 National Hunt meetings have the word good in the going & Musselburgh's 1st day on the flat turf my 1 UK bet will be on Wolverhampton's all weather .

8.00- TRANSITION 14/1 ew BetVictor

Had a 96 day break since finishing 7th of 10 over CD 21 days ago .
Wears 1st time cheekpieces & has been dropping down the weights , was as high as 83 back in March 2020 , 5 runs later & is rated 66 & has won off 79 when with A.Perrett .

Good luck to all today , am looking forward to the 6 Graded races from Keeneland tonight & have 2 half day holidays booked off next Thursday & Friday for start of the National meeting

[Tipsy Mouse]

I’m hoping there could be a bit of value in the big handicap hurdle at Fairyhouse today (4:05). I like both the JP horses in this.

MAGIC TRICKS’ run in a P2P was excellent. The horse that beat him, Gars De Sceaux, is definitely a Grade 1 winner in waiting. In fact the RP rated Gars De Sceaux’s P2P win just 1lbs lower than the highly regarded Jonbon. JP liked the form so much he bought them both (and Jonbon!). He has run well to a point in both a Grade 1 and 2 but the ground was too heavy. He now gets something akin to what he wants underfoot. He is currently about 20lbs below what he can achieve. Massive @ 10/1.

HEARTS ARE TRUMPS was @ 28/1 last night. Has been running on ground he absolutely hates for much of the season yet go back to August and Galway when he last ran on better ground and he was finishing 2nd in a €102k handicap off a mark 5lbs higher than today’s. He is still 3lbs higher than his highest winning mark but he’s too big to ignore. If he doesn’t feature today he is still worth keeping an eye on for later in the year.