Getting to the next level

nors
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Re: Getting to the next level

Postby nors » Wed Jun 06, 2018 7:36 am

In the last year around 40% of odds on favs were beaten, 60% won.

If you think that for all favs the win % is around 33%. I am not sure i am that happy taking on odds on favourites, but it really depends on the look and the price of the other runners.

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Re: Getting to the next level

Postby luckyliamscott » Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:54 am

It’s being able to identify those 40% isn’t it.

Now that I’ve narrowed down the races I’m involved in, I’d been involved in 4 races over the past two days. Two winners two losers. Something I want to do is look into the horses that won that I didn’t identify and see where I went wrong.

Is this something any of you do? How do you go about analysing it?

I’ve looked back and still feel the same. One race can be dismissed as just bad luck (Nuns Walk Ayr 6.30 4/5/18 back shoe came off but still came second.)
However, yesterday at Newcastle in the 8.45, I was no where near. Having shortlisted 3, the best one of them did was 5th.

Any help with this would be appreciated as being able to identify why I lost is definitely a way to step forward.
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Gman84
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Re: Getting to the next level

Postby Gman84 » Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:48 am

It’s being able to identify those 40% isn’t it.

Now that I’ve narrowed down the races I’m involved in, I’d been involved in 4 races over the past two days. Two winners two losers. Something I want to do is look into the horses that won that I didn’t identify and see where I went wrong.

Is this something any of you do? How do you go about analysing it?

I’ve looked back and still feel the same. One race can be dismissed as just bad luck (Nuns Walk Ayr 6.30 4/5/18 back shoe came off but still came second.)
However, yesterday at Newcastle in the 8.45, I was no where near. Having shortlisted 3, the best one of them did was 5th.

Any help with this would be appreciated as being able to identify why I lost is definitely a way to step forward.
I spend a bit of time going through race replays. The Sporting Life website now offers full replays on all races but there are other sources too such as the Jockey Club website. I tend to play close attention to the start and see if the draw or jump from the stalls has set the race up well/badly although obvious this is far more important in flat races. Is the horse running too free? Would headgear help? Then, I pay attention to where the real racing starts, ie, the last couple of furlongs. Has the horse been given too much to do? Did it just not stay? Was it boxed in? Interfered with? Has it ran to it's mark? Always worth seeing in handicaps how much the winner and any good placings are put up by and trying to follow their form.

But, even with all that and depending on how much time you can dedicate, you also have to accept that sometimes horses just aren't in the mood and can run flat at times and then bounce back and improve beyond their best ever mark. Some things can't be explained.
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Re: Getting to the next level

Postby luckyliamscott » Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:58 am

It’s being able to identify those 40% isn’t it.

Now that I’ve narrowed down the races I’m involved in, I’d been involved in 4 races over the past two days. Two winners two losers. Something I want to do is look into the horses that won that I didn’t identify and see where I went wrong.

Is this something any of you do? How do you go about analysing it?

I’ve looked back and still feel the same. One race can be dismissed as just bad luck (Nuns Walk Ayr 6.30 4/5/18 back shoe came off but still came second.)
However, yesterday at Newcastle in the 8.45, I was no where near. Having shortlisted 3, the best one of them did was 5th.

Any help with this would be appreciated as being able to identify why I lost is definitely a way to step forward.
I spend a bit of time going through race replays. The Sporting Life website now offers full replays on all races but there are other sources too such as the Jockey Club website. I tend to play close attention to the start and see if the draw or jump from the stalls has set the race up well/badly although obvious this is far more important in flat races. Is the horse running too free? Would headgear help? Then, I pay attention to where the real racing starts, ie, the last couple of furlongs. Has the horse been given too much to do? Did it just not stay? Was it boxed in? Interfered with? Has it ran to it's mark? Always worth seeing in handicaps how much the winner and any good placings are put up by and trying to follow their form.

But, even with all that and depending on how much time you can dedicate, you also have to accept that sometimes horses just aren't in the mood and can run flat at times and then bounce back and improve beyond their best ever mark. Some things can't be explained.
Thanks Gman.

Some real key points in there that I hadn’t thought of or have overlooked.

The last part is something that I think I will need to start doing an accepting that sometimes they aren’t in the mood. Having an off day. Like we all do haha!
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Re: Getting to the next level

Postby luckyliamscott » Tue Jun 12, 2018 8:37 am

Seem to be having a really up and down time since I have narrowed it down.

Don’t seem to be doing quite as well as I’d have hoped. Will have to review again at the end of the month.
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Lentwood
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Re: Getting to the next level

Postby Lentwood » Wed Jun 13, 2018 5:31 am

If any of you follow me in the racing discussion, you’ll know I am VERY hit and miss.

I’m still very novice to it, but now I feel I need to really step my game up and take it to the next level.

It’s been great to be around so many experienced people on here and would love to know what you’d recommend to help me build on the little knowledge I have.
Hi,

I've been away from this forum myself for a couple of years. Some may remember I was a half-decent tipster, I would put up my share of good-price winners but my strike rate was relatively low and this made it difficult to make money from gambling on a regular basis as it's harder to maintain staking plans etc....in the face of long losing runs. My theory was that too be a serious gambler I really needed to be operating no lower than around 25%SR

I've been studying a ridiculous amount but have moved away from traditional form study towards pace handicapping and pace analysis. It's opened my eyes really to how little I really understood racing until even relatively recently. Pace handicapping and speed figures not only gives you a benchmark which you can use to assess any horse in any race at any track, it also helps you understand how a race was run tactically and which horses where suited by the way the race was run and which where not.

You also come to realise that what are often perceived as bad rides or unlucky horses is in reality just a reflection of the way the race panned out. The number of times I see punters fume at a jockey for being too far back compared to going too aggressively from the front highlights the lack of general understanding.

I would highly recommend if you want to REALLY understand racing that you need to properly understand pace. It took my probably a year to understand the difference between a 'fast' time and a 'good' time.

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