The Ultimate Horse Racing Betting System by OLBG Members - National Hunt Races - Stage 3 - System Definition & Testing

ians6290
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Re: The Ultimate Horse Racing Betting System by OLBG Members - National Hunt Races - Stage 3 - System Definition & Testi

Postby ians6290 » Sat Mar 10, 2018 8:46 am

Quick Update

Overall Level Stake Profit (Starting Prices) = -11.13pts

Overall Level Stake Profit (with BOG or using price taken when making the pick) = +30.75pts

Overall Strike Rate = 16.9% (11/65)

This week's LSP (Starting Prices) = -1.25pts

This week's LSP (with BOG) = +1.25pts

This week's strike rate = 20% (2/10)

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Re: The Ultimate Horse Racing Betting System by OLBG Members - National Hunt Races - Stage 3 - System Definition & Testi

Postby Shrews » Sat Mar 10, 2018 11:42 am

Quick Update

Overall Level Stake Profit (Starting Prices) = -11.13pts

Overall Level Stake Profit (with BOG or using price taken when making the pick) = +30.75pts
Well done Ian for keeping this going. :win:

What are everyone's thoughts on why the SP and BOG/Original price are so different? Obviously early days, but these horses look like they're being backed.

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Re: The Ultimate Horse Racing Betting System by OLBG Members - National Hunt Races - Stage 3 - System Definition & Testi

Postby ians6290 » Sat Mar 10, 2018 7:31 pm

Out of the 11 winners, 9 of them started off at a shorter price than at the time I applied the system to the race. With this in mind I have been trying to go through races the evening before they take place but this is not always possible unfortunately.

I would like to add that I haven't been taking into account non-runners which could lead to deductions, however in my experience this would still give a higher return than the starting price.

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Re: The Ultimate Horse Racing Betting System by OLBG Members - National Hunt Races - Stage 3 - System Definition & Testi

Postby searcher56 » Mon Mar 12, 2018 8:52 am

re the question about WHY the majority of the selections thrown up are almost always backed and in many cases heavily backed......
I would think that the answer is quite simply that all 5 of the criteria in the system as it stands are applied to the general principals of the overwhelming majority of systems, indeed to most forms of selections period.
Criteria 1, 2 & 5 are where we all start in one form or another, perhaps #3 a little less so ? for me #4 is where there seems to be some wiggle room but what/how is beyond me atm :?
The surprising aspect is that so many of the selections are such big prices to start with, albeit the prior evening and i seriously doubt that those odds last very long but nonetheless. they are out there and that adds a serious angle that might(?) be exploited somehow.

I have to say that the huge amount of work put into this deserves a lot of credit and surely success is not too far away :win:
The LOTTERY: A tax on people who are bad at maths.

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Re: The Ultimate Horse Racing Betting System by OLBG Members - National Hunt Races - Stage 3 - System Definition & Testi

Postby Swiftie » Mon Mar 12, 2018 12:23 pm

Any selections for today?

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Re: The Ultimate Horse Racing Betting System by OLBG Members - National Hunt Races - Stage 3 - System Definition & Testi

Postby ians6290 » Sat Mar 17, 2018 7:13 pm

Another short update and then I'll wait until the end of March before providing a more in-depth report.

The system had a profitable festival, albeit I didn't have the time to do every single race which qualified especially with some of the field sizes. I managed to do 14 of the races which qualified.

On just the festival alone the system performed as follows:

+11.5pts to Starting price

+20.5pts to BOG/earlier prices

4 winners out of 14. The Cheltenham winners were Benie Des Dieux, Delta Work, The Storyteller and Native River.

Overall the system is now in profit against the starting prices as well as against the BOG/earlier prices.

Overall SP = +5.62pts
Overall BOG/EP = +64.75pts
20 winners out of 98 runners, which is a 20.4% strike rate.

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Re: The Ultimate Horse Racing Betting System by OLBG Members - National Hunt Races - Stage 3 - System Definition & Testi

Postby ians6290 » Sat Mar 17, 2018 7:16 pm

It turns out the only race which qualified during the festival which I ran out of time to do was the Grand Annual.

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Re: The Ultimate Horse Racing Betting System by OLBG Members - National Hunt Races - Stage 3 - System Definition & Testi

Postby ians6290 » Sat Mar 31, 2018 7:47 pm

Hello everyone,

First things first, here are the overall stats from Feb 15th until March 31st:

Overall @ SP = -13.5pts
Overall @ PT/BOG = +49.5pts
Strike Rate = 17.4% (23/132)

If anyone wants to see the entire results table I've collated then feel free to ask. If you're a bit of a stats geek like I am then you'll most likely find it interesting. I'm not sure how to get an excel spreadsheet to post on a forum thread otherwise I would (I'm sure I've done it before but can't remember how?). My data table is very basic but it does the job.

In terms of the system score, using the top score method, the higher the score the pick received the better the pick generally did in terms of a winners to runners ratio, e.g. Picks getting scores of 12 or 13 had a higher LSP and strike rate than picks scoring 9 or 10. This is something which, in all fairness, should happen as the system is aimed at making picks on the most common criteria. However, I think that a larger sample is needed to properly be able to say that the scoring system does provide more winners the higher they score on said system.

There is a similar noticeable trend when the results are split up by class. The system performed better in both LSP and strike rate in Graded races compared to listed/class 2s and 3s. But again, a bigger sample size is needed to be able to properly say that this is an actual trend of the system.

With the above said, I am going to carry this trial period on until the end of the jumps season (Celebration Chase Day). Although I'm not going to start putting real money on it quite yet.

I have noticed some limitations/drawbacks when applying the system over the last 5 or 6 weeks. Firstly, the going can change from one day to the next. Today at Haydock being a great example. As all of the races at Haydock today qualified to have the system applied to them I did some of them yesterday morning and the rest yesterday evening. Yesterday the official going at Haydock was good to soft. So all of the picks for today's Haydock races had been based on good to soft even though the going changed to soft by this afternoon (looked really soft on the telly to me). If it had only been one race to go back through then I might have done but to go back through all 7 was too much.

Which brings me on to another drawback...Saturdays. Having 2 or 3 races per day doesn't take too much time up once you get used to applying the system. But on a Saturday when there can be 10+ races at class 3 or above this can prove quite time consuming, especially if there are big fields running too.

There were a couple of small things when applying the system where you will have to change it slightly in my opinion. One being when horses are making their handicap debut. In the 3rd section of the system what mark do you put their previous form to as they haven't always been given one yet? I usually scored horses a 1 when this happened. Lastly, in open company races (races which are not handicaps) the scoring of section 3 has to change slightly because the mark doesn't really come into play anymore as they are all running off set weights. What I did instead was a 0 for lower class (within 7 pounds of best RPR in last 12 months), 1 for the same class, 2 for higher class. So, in open company races the highest score is not 15, it will be 14 (or 13 for grade 1s).

I have tried to keep this as brief as possible so apologies if I've waffled at points. Any questions then feel free to ask.

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Re: The Ultimate Horse Racing Betting System by OLBG Members - National Hunt Races - Stage 3 - System Definition & Testi

Postby ians6290 » Sat Mar 31, 2018 8:21 pm

A couple extra points. If more than one horse is top joint scorer then I have been going by whoever has the highest score on the going section as it was deemed the most important section. If they have the same score on the going section then I have been going with both of them, so far there has not been more than 2 picks for any one race.

To alleviate the problem of potential going changes I am now keeping hold of the scores against the races for that day until the race has finished, rather than deleting it after I'd found the top scorer. I should have done it like this from the beginning in all honesty.

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Re: The Ultimate Horse Racing Betting System by OLBG Members - National Hunt Races - Stage 3 - System Definition & Testi

Postby ians6290 » Sun Apr 29, 2018 4:23 pm

Final Update

LSP to Starting Price = -17.94pts

LSP to BOG/Price Taken = +58.42pts

Strike Rate = 18.9% (39/206)

I am most likely going to be trying this system with real money when the next jumps season starts proper (October time, won't do it for summer jumps racing). But with the added small rule that the minimum leading score for a pick is 8. If anyone else decides to try this I highly recommend using it either the evening before the race (if you can be sure the going won't change) or the morning of the race because as you can notice by the LSPs it doesn't look profitable against the starting prices but does if you can get a price early.

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