Horse Racing Discussion and Information Weekly Thread - Mon 8th Jan - Sun 14th Jan

andythornton
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Re: Horse Racing Discussion and Information Weekly Thread - Mon 8th Jan - Sun 14th Jan

Postby andythornton » Fri Jan 12, 2018 2:55 pm

hi fellas! hows things?? here are my first two for today:

huntingdon,3 00:

hard to assess,who is more progressive,between GUMBALL and style de garde here,but a narrow vote goes to the former,who had the misfortune to bump into the current triumph hurdle favourite last time out,but hasnt done much wrong before that effort.should get back on track today,but might be a close call..

sedgefield,3 10:

quite a few,that are interestingly handicapped on their best form,and so is my choice SMUGGLERS STASH,who is only 4 lbr higher thanfor his last win,and was rather outclassed in a class 2 last time out.good chance in these calmer waters today..

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Re: Horse Racing Discussion and Information Weekly Thread - Mon 8th Jan - Sun 14th Jan

Postby Shrews » Fri Jan 12, 2018 7:45 pm

Little Kingdom at 28/1 worth a little ew in the last at Newcastle. Class 6 winner off 8lb lower last February is probably capable of getting competitive in this class 7 where a lot of poor sorts pad out the field.

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Re: Horse Racing Discussion and Information Weekly Thread - Mon 8th Jan - Sun 14th Jan

Postby Gman84 » Sat Jan 13, 2018 10:29 am

Quite a good day's racing today.

Over in Ireland I'll be keeping an eye on the Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle where several possible Supreme Novice Hurdle contenders will be running. Only 7 runners so not a real e/w even but Getabird is attracting the money in the market for Willie Mullins but I think his other runner, Carter McKay, might be the better value bet at 10/1. Mengli Khan looked impressive winning the Royal Bond before a disaster at Christmas when running through the hurdle wing at Leopardstown.

Over this side of the water, I'm going with Flintham in the 1:50 at Warwick with the Skybet offer of money back as a free bet if 2nd. Has won here in heavy ground before and likes to front run although a smaller field could see things be a bit more tactical.

A couple of former winners of races taking placing going today that could be worth following. In the 1:15 at Warwick Big Jim won this race two years ago off 111. Goes off 120 today but has also won at Ascot off of 123 so looks fairly treated and last run was first run in 10 months so likely needed. Hopefully fitter for that and back at a track he likes...6/1 (7 runners).

Tobefair won the 2:25 Pertemps Handicap Hurdle last year off 126 and is now on 138 but did go in off 134 at Newbury on soft ground and mark has eased a little from the high of 143. Obviously last year was a big win streak that seen the mark go up and up and up but back at a place it has won off without the attention 18/1 looks a good e/w bet. I do also like The Organist in the same race.
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Re: Horse Racing Discussion and Information Weekly Thread - Mon 8th Jan - Sun 14th Jan

Postby The Market Man » Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:09 am

I’m not particularly enamoured with either Mengli Khan or Getabird for the Supreme, although I’d expect it to be a close call today and with slight preference for the Elliott horse. Mullins likes to win this race but Getabird appears to be inferior to his recent winners...maybe today he shows us something special ?

Warwick 2.25 - Pertemps qualifier
I’m expecting a big run from Fly Camp although the shrewd Henderson might not want him to win, with the final in March the priority. He needs to be about seven pounds higher in the handicap to qualify and they could run him again before the festival I.e two close finishes could see him qualify near the bottom of the weights.
However, he still needs to place at least so I’ve backed him Each Way.

Warwick 3.35 Classic Chase

It’s a stiff track with plenty of jumping required in the final seven furlongs and I’m quite happy to put a line through course winner Cogry’s last run in a far more competitive race when the yard were struggling for winners. Still well handicapped on the two runs prior to that and many of his rivals appear to be out of form, long in the tooth or just unsuited to these marathon trips.

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Re: Horse Racing Discussion and Information Weekly Thread - Mon 8th Jan - Sun 14th Jan

Postby Gman84 » Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:38 am

I think Cogry could be a good shout TMM, he likes to go at it from the front and if he gets those behind jumping under pressure we could see a few have their jumping severely tested,
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Re: Horse Racing Discussion and Information Weekly Thread - Mon 8th Jan - Sun 14th Jan

Postby andythornton » Sat Jan 13, 2018 12:08 pm

hi lads! here are my first three for today:

kempton,12 20:

REDICEAN is held in high regard by his trainer,and made a very nice debut a few weeks ago.can surely progress again,and top chance today..

wetherby,12 30:

there are one or two definite improvers here,but the TRUCKERS LODGE could be the one today,as he won with great authority back in the spring,and can take another step up the ladder today..

warwick,12 40:

a big field,and also some potential improvers,now tackling handicaps for the first time,and one,that makes some appeal here is the lightly raced EQUUS MILLAR.ran his best race to some degree last time out,when 4th to top prospect if the cap fits.so,if hes able to build on that run today,has a really big chance..

more to come soon..

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Re: Horse Racing Discussion and Information Weekly Thread - Mon 8th Jan - Sun 14th Jan

Postby ExoticDancer » Sat Jan 13, 2018 12:49 pm

12.50 Iconic Belle 16/1

Well handicapped now and ran a fine race last time at the track.
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Re: Horse Racing Discussion and Information Weekly Thread - Mon 8th Jan - Sun 14th Jan

Postby andythornton » Sat Jan 13, 2018 1:08 pm

warwick,1 15:

SWIFT CRUSADER is still quite unexposed over fences,and has already shown some aptitude for the game,so should be firmly involved today..

kempton,1 30:

maybe the aintree fences and/or the heavy ground was a bit too much for MERCIAN PRINCE last time out,but has otherwise shown good form beforehand,so not dismissed..

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Re: Horse Racing Discussion and Information Weekly Thread - Mon 8th Jan - Sun 14th Jan

Postby ExoticDancer » Sat Jan 13, 2018 1:15 pm

13.25 Boom The Groom 6/1

I quite fancy him in this as his form is slightly above the rest of the field. He's a 5f horse but 6f Lingfield is not out of the question, combo jockey/horse won at CD in the past. He had decent last run, so in form, down in class. He's got to be all out again to win .

Also Ascot Day 20/1 seems overpriced. Horse has won fresh before and form on artificial surfaces is 2111. lately beating Boundsy in a race last year, who went on to win 2 in a row and place in a class 2 afterwards.
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Re: Horse Racing Discussion and Information Weekly Thread - Mon 8th Jan - Sun 14th Jan

Postby The Market Man » Sat Jan 13, 2018 1:19 pm

I hope so, GMan. Just hope that Bargary is on a going day.

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Re: Horse Racing Discussion and Information Weekly Thread - Mon 8th Jan - Sun 14th Jan

Postby Shrews » Sat Jan 13, 2018 1:44 pm

Nick Williams has won the Lanzarote at Kempton (2.40) three times from the last 7. His two horses today are long odds including Man From Mars at 66/1 whose 122 rating could well be on the low side. Has to prove he's fit following a break since April, but given the trainer's pedigree in this, it perhaps wouldn't be a surprise if this one has been kept under wraps.

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Re: Horse Racing Discussion and Information Weekly Thread - Mon 8th Jan - Sun 14th Jan

Postby andythornton » Sat Jan 13, 2018 1:52 pm

kempton,2 05:

waiting patiently is seriously respected here,and hes surely the most improving of these,but the big question is: is he good enough against some proven graded performers,who strut their stuff for some years now?i honestly dont know,so i go with the proven ability of GODS OWN,who can be relied upon to run his usual honest race,and shouldnt be far away..

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