Finding a winner at decent odds

baldyb220
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Finding a winner at decent odds

Postby baldyb220 » Fri Nov 10, 2017 1:43 pm

Hi guys I'm new here and thought I would get peoples views.
Is it me or is it virtually impossible to find a horse with decent form at a decent price these days?
When you do find something the odds are just way too short and most of the time it doesn't run to previous form and gets beat by a horse with virtually no form at all. I used to love horse racing but the last few years it's just getting dire.
I find myself scratching my head these days wondering how a horse thats been pulled up and fallen early in races hoses up a short priced fav with decent form. By the way I don't just look for favs or short prices! Its a minefield these days.
Think its time to knock it on the head and stick to footy ice hockey and NFL
Peoples thoughts and views would be great
Cheers
I need to stop betting on horses... If I did I would be in profit :lol:

nors
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Re: Finding a winner at decent odds

Postby nors » Fri Nov 10, 2017 1:56 pm

That is the conundrum of horse racing.

I would say look at the make up of the race first before you look for the horse.

Find races that where the fav looks vulnerable and work from there.

Handicaps will obviously offer more chances of this.

So ignore all non handicaps.

That should make study easier.

Ignore all races where the fav is odds on, that should cut out some more.

Ignore all races with 5 runners or less.

Study 1 or 2 races to within an inch of their lives, and expect to be right only 25% of the time, so only back horses 7/2 or above.

Simple!!

BTW the only race I looked at today was the 3.20 at Warwick, but no definite conclusion, but hopefully you get what I am aiming it!

Good luck.

custard357
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Re: Finding a winner at decent odds

Postby custard357 » Fri Nov 10, 2017 2:01 pm

I had a nice win last night at Chelmsford, Pearl Spectre at 10-1 ( i think it came in to 8-1 at SP). It had claimed second in a class above in its previous race and had been a narrow 4th at C&D a few weeks previously. Weights looked favourable in the main. I thought it was a good bet and it came in. No guarantees of course, like any of these nags, but you do your homework and make a decision. I never really felt this one would lose though, strangely.

nors
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Re: Finding a winner at decent odds

Postby nors » Fri Nov 10, 2017 3:30 pm

This list of some of the best posts on olbg may help your studys.

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=60610

+ this blog by The Executioner.

https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412577

PompeyJim
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Re: Finding a winner at decent odds

Postby PompeyJim » Fri Nov 10, 2017 4:07 pm

Keeping a close eye on Jockey's and Trainers in form can often reap dividends with some nice priced winners, case in point Kim Bailey.

2 winners from 3 runners at Ludlow yesterday, 8/1 and 7/2.

2 runners at Warwick today, 2 winners

- Station Master @ 9/2 won in the style of a useful animal and Diamond Gait 14/1 in the bumper, despite running very green.

Doesn't always pay off but something that the form book won't flag up.
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Robmull
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Re: Finding a winner at decent odds

Postby Robmull » Fri Nov 10, 2017 4:50 pm

There are many ways to ‘skin this cat’ :lol:

The VALUE CALCULATOR has produced consistent profits for me since inception back in March 2016 and has found winners at odds up to 50/1.

Full details as to how the VC works and results since early January can be found via links from the following blog.

https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412764

Shrews
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Re: Finding a winner at decent odds

Postby Shrews » Fri Nov 10, 2017 8:17 pm

I 100% agree with Baldy. In fact earlier this year it got so bad, without a double-price sniff in sight, that I thought I'd do a study of how many 10/1+ winners there had been over the last few months.

I was right!

There was very few and I put together a whole new thread backing it up with all the stats I found. Then I noticed five 20/1 shots had gone in. Never has the word 'D'oh' been more applicable.

I never posted the research, because I know that as soon as I do, it's guaranteed to look stoopid.

However, it's almost getting to the point where those of us who look for the long-shot first and will hardly ever back under 5/1 (may as well call us greedy chancers) may as well just select horses from the 5/1 - 9/1 bracket.

It'll make narrowing down the field easier at least. :D

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Re: Finding a winner at decent odds

Postby Shrews » Fri Nov 10, 2017 9:51 pm

On an average day of say of 3 or 4 meetings how many winners (as a %) do we all think will win at a double-figure price?

Well, here's the results for the first three days of November

November 1st - 5 under 10/1/2 at 10/1+, 6/2, 5/3, 5/2 = 21/9 = 43% Ireland - 4/4 = 50%
November 2nd - 5/3, 7/1, 5/2, 6/0 = 23/6 = 26% Ireland - 6/1 = 17%
November 3rd - 7/1, 7/0, 5/1, 6/0 = 25/2 = 8% Ireland - 6/1, 6/2 = 12/3 = 25%

Overall: 69/17 = 25% Ireland: 16/6 = 37%

Gman84
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Re: Finding a winner at decent odds

Postby Gman84 » Sat Nov 11, 2017 1:08 am

I put this blog together earlier this year:

https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412651

There’s nothing earth shattering in it but just a general guide/list of what to look for in a long shot and the best ways to about backing them.

mcna113
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Re: Finding a winner at decent odds

Postby mcna113 » Sat Nov 11, 2017 12:31 pm

Very rarely post if ever but have learnt a hell of a lot from this site over the years.

I've found that looking at patterns in the particular types of races and conditions trainers do well in can sometimes lead to a decent priced winner!

An example is Yes You in the 205 at Donny. Now this is rank outsider and is more than likely here to give the connections an end of season day out. But, Ian Jardine does well with lto winners seemingly finding a suitable races for them?

I wouldn't back every horse that fit the profile of what trainers seem to be good at, but it can point to a decent winner or two. Just my two-penneth.

Wish you all the best in your betting and betting education

Mac

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Re: Finding a winner at decent odds

Postby Shrews » Sat Nov 11, 2017 1:37 pm

Yes, I agree with MCNA113.

One thing I would add is that when we spot these horses, we still need to compare them to the others in the field. It can be common that when we 'spot' a horse that fits something we've discovered, we get over-excited (!) and therefore natural bias towards it takes over. When in fact, it still needs comparing to the others.

custard357
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Re: Finding a winner at decent odds

Postby custard357 » Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:25 pm

Yes, I agree with MCNA113.

One thing I would add is that when we spot these horses, we still need to compare them to the others in the field. It can be common that when we 'spot' a horse that fits something we've discovered, we get over-excited (!) and therefore natural bias towards it takes over. When in fact, it still needs comparing to the others.
Very good point, well made. I've been guilty of this and an easy trap to fall into for a relative novice, such as I. It really is a case of check again and check yourself for any signs of bias.

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