2017/18 Meydan Racing season - discussion & selections

tbuckley
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2017/18 Meydan Racing season - discussion & selections

Postby tbuckley » Tue Nov 07, 2017 9:15 pm

The 2017/18 racing season at Meydan starts on Thursday 9th November and so I've set up this discussion thread for anybody interested in sharing thoughts and selections throughout the season, which stretches from Thursday right through to March 31st.

I didn't have the time to do this last year but we've done it in the past on OLBG and it proved to very interesting and successful, with many excellent tips and thoughts posted, I'd say it's long odds on that the same will happen again.

For those interested I've produced a blog with my thoughts on Meydan including the full schedule for the season including both standard Meydan racing days and the Dubai World Cup Carnival meetings, along with trainers & horses to follow :-

https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=413174

check out the blog for the full racing schedule at Meydan and the full list of horses to follow, here's a selection of what I think may well prove to be the best ones from each trainer :-

Satish Seemar :- NORTH AMERICA, BOCHART, EJBAAR, MISTER PARMAR
Doug Watson :- COOL COWBOY, ONE MAN BAND, ACTIVE SPIRIT, DESERT FORCE, GRAND ARGENTIER
Ali Rashid Al Rayhi :- ALRAASED, MUNAASER, MEARS
M Al Muhairi :- SHOREDITCH, MUARRAB
Salim Bin Ghadayer :- HEAVY METAL, FRASERBURGH, LONG RIVER, CRIMINALISTIC

Godolphin & Mike De Kock are obviously also very powerful players at Meydan and I've tried to contact both to see if I can get more information on potential Meydan runners from their yards, Goldophin do have 3 entries at Meydan this Thursday and that's very interesting, I'll add more thoughts and horses from those yards when I get them.

I'll be adding some thoughts on selections for race meetings to the blog in the comments section, but I have included some thoughts for Thursday's Meydan card within the blog and here they are :-

"Early Thoughts for opening Meydan meeting on Thursday 9th November

It's fantastic to see Meydan starting again this week and it starts with a fascinating card on Thursday.

First to catch the eye is the fact Godolphin have 3 entered via Dowayla, Desert Mountain & Naaeebb all running for Saeed Bin Suroor, Godolphin do target success at Meydan but it's surprising to see them have entries so early, they clearly have a plan/targets for those entered so will be fascinating to watch them perform.

The 2nd race on the Thursday Meydan card is a 7 furlong Dirt Handicap and I'm really interested to see how MATHEMATICS goes for Doug Watson, how EJBAAR runs for Satish Seemar and also TRENCHES for Ali Rashid Al Rayhi.

The 5th race on the Meydan card is a 10 furlong Dirt Handicap and at this stage it looks like it could prove to be Doug Watson benefit race as he's got 5 strong contenders via GRAND ARGENTIER, NATHR, STORM BELT, MIZBAR & MUTAMAKKIN , it's never easy to split them given it's the first race of the season but stable jockey Pat Dobbs is on MIZBAR while it's interesting they've got Josh Quinn claiming off of GRAND ARGENTIER, it's possible those two could fight it out.

The closing race on Thursday's Meydan card is a 1 mile Handicap on the dirt and it should be a really fascinating race to watch with ACTIVE SPIRIT, BOCHART, DOWAYLA, SECRET AMBITION, NOLOHAY & MUNAASER all really interesting runners who should do very well at Meydan again.

They are tough to split and best advice probably will be to watch with interest but ACTIVE SPIRIT has Josh Quinn claiming and he'll be very dangerous if he gets easy lead, Doug Watson stablemate NOLOHAY has the assistance of Pat Dobbs, BOCHART just beat ACTIVE SPIRIT over the same course & distance in March and MUNAASER was only 1 length back in 3rd, the unknown element is Godolphin's filly DOWAYLA who last ran a decent 3rd in a 1 mile Newmarket handicap just 1 month ago.

Overall it's just great to have Meydan back again, I will probably have a few bets on the day and I'll add those thoughts to this blog in the comments section as the season progresses, although my main advice for the early weeks is to watch, learn & just enjoy having Meydan back. "


looking forward to seeing how the Meydan season works out and hopefully plenty of you will join in the Meydan fun during the winter months, feel welcome to add your own thoughts, selections, horses to follow etc :win:
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Re: 2017/18 Meydan Racing season - discussion & selections

Postby spuduliike » Wed Nov 08, 2017 4:11 pm

Good stuff Tommy. I'll be taking it easy as well for the first few meetings but it will be good to have Meydan back.

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Re: 2017/18 Meydan Racing season - discussion & selections

Postby spuduliike » Wed Nov 08, 2017 6:50 pm

Just for a bit of intrest I'll be having a small ew canadian on

3.05 Pepared
4.15 Conquerant
4.50 Nathr
5.25 Lytham st ann
6.00 Secret ambition

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Re: 2017/18 Meydan Racing season - discussion & selections

Postby tbuckley » Wed Nov 08, 2017 6:59 pm

Cheers for joining in Vince & great to have you on board again :win:

I'm just going through the Meydan card again now and will post a few thoughts later, interestingly top Meydan jockey Tadgh O'Shea follows me on twitter now and I've just been listening to some of his thoughts on the runners at Meydan, some very interesting snippets indeed, including what sounds like a plot for a race at Al Ain in a few weeks, :wink: , I'm suddenly just tempted to back all of his in a multiple lol

Seriously though with it being the first meeting of the season it's all about watching and learning to check out the new horses, work out which horses did need the run, which horses were obviously bang on to go first time out, you've got to factor in that some horses will be running in these early season races to get prepared for a bigger target down the line, Storm Belt is one that springs to mind, so while I will be having a few small bets for a fun interest, there is no possible way of being confident enough to have big stakes and it certainly makes sense to hold fire, small fun bets has to be the right policy in the early weeks of the season.
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Re: 2017/18 Meydan Racing season - discussion & selections

Postby Robmull » Wed Nov 08, 2017 7:06 pm

Hi Tommy and Vince,

Great to have racing back at Meydan and whilst I won’t be expending as much effort on analysing the races as I have in previous years, I will try to post regularly when I notice something of interest, including the odd selection at Jebel Ali.

The first meeting of the season is usually run on a very slow dirt surface, which does not suit all of the participants and it often pays to side with runners who are proven under such brutal conditions.

AJRAAM (5.25) has won this race in each of the last 2 seasons, so clearly appreciates the likely slow surface, whilst he tends to run best fresh (usually needs at least 6 weeks between races), so this is probably the right time to support him.

His current handicap rating of 89 appears fair as his 3 course wins have been recorded off marks of 85 (this race in 2015) 89 (7 furlongs) and 91 (this event last year) and whilst his draw may prove a little tricky in stall 11, he should be capable of securing a reasonably prominent early position and then grind out a finish when other runners have cried enough due to lack of stamina on the dead surface.

May be worth a small Each Way investment.

All the best.

Rob.

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Re: 2017/18 Meydan Racing season - discussion & selections

Postby tbuckley » Wed Nov 08, 2017 9:02 pm

Roll out the red carpet, or possibly Orange & black OLBG carpet, Meydan specialist Robmull is in the house!!! :win:

Great to have you on here Rob and will be brilliant to have your detailed analysis for members to benefit from.

Very interesting what you say about AJRAAM, he made it onto my shortlist in that race in the end, as I mentioned before I'm using this opening Meydan fixture to watch and learn and will purely be having these very small fun bets for interest :-

simple plan is 5 selected races with 3 picks in each race, just very small stakes for fun :

e/w lucky 31 :-

3.05 - Prepared
4.15 - Moosir
4.50 -Mizbah
5.25 - Mutahaddith
6.00 - Bochart

e/w lucky 31 :-

3.05 - Mathematics
4.15 - Sky Jockey
4.50 - Nathr
5.25 - Ajraam
6.00 - Nolohay

e/w lucky 31 :-

3.05 - Ejbaar
4.15 - Mears
4.50 - Grand Argentier
5.25 - Almanaara
6.00 - Munaaser


It's really competitive looking & very tough at this stage to try and sort them out with any great confidence, much more will be gained from watching and working through the results and how that will work out as the season goes on.

All the best to everybody with whatever bets you have, looking forward to more thoughts being posted. :win:
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Re: 2017/18 Meydan Racing season - discussion & selections

Postby tbuckley » Wed Nov 08, 2017 9:25 pm

I must recommend that anybody interested in Meydan watch the Winning Line on the Dubai Racing Channel/Dubai Racing TV, free on internet.

Laura King is the main presenter of the show and she's actually a shareholder in ACTIVE SPIRIT, runs in the 6.00, I mentioned that one and was tempted when I looked at initial entries but she said she believes Active Spirit will need the run first time out & will be much better next time, so I'm trusting her and leaving Active Spirit out of those lucky 31's, although I did have a very small e/w acca when I posted the blog.

Tadgh O'Shea really was very interesting and informative to watch, his insight into the horses he works on were very useful.

He first mentioned that the newcomer ROY ORBISON, runs in the first maiden, is one that will stay much further than tomorrows 6f trip and that they've got their eye on a 10f race at Al Ain in a few weeks time so keep an eye on that. :wink:

He gave a good mention for his ride PREPARED in the 3.05, saying got a good draw and working well, he spoke well of QUARTIER FRANCAIS in the 3.40 maiden, not so much as being the one for tomorrow but one that will do well at Meydan in time, similar comments were said about MEARS who runs in the 4.15, actually he's already in my list of horses to follow so that's a big positive.

His thoughts on his ride in the 4.50, TRINITY FORCE, were that they believe there will be loads of pace in the race and that could help set it up for something to come from off the pace and that should suit TRINITY FORCE and help him run a good race & give him a chance but he admitted it's a very tough race and that MIZBAH is the one to beat.

Finally he spoke well of his ride in the 5.25, MUTAHADDITH, says he's working well and has the proven form.

I hope that helps & interests people, it's very interesting to get the views of those who work very closely with the horses and who know the Meydan form/demands of Meydan, will make for very interesting viewing for sure, get your notebooks ready.

by the way, one horse that was given a very good mention on the show as being a really good prospect for Meydan this season was NOVOMAN. :win:
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Re: 2017/18 Meydan Racing season - discussion & selections

Postby Robmull » Wed Nov 08, 2017 9:46 pm

Hi Tommy,

Thanks for the fanfare, but my days of maintaining speed figures and detailed draw/pace data are behind me, as the returns did not warrant the time it was taking to collate the data and assess each race.

Hopefully, I can still find a good value winner, or two based on a mixture of gut feel and logic, but only time will tell. :P

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Re: 2017/18 Meydan Racing season - discussion & selections

Postby tbuckley » Thu Nov 09, 2017 4:47 pm

Frustrating but not surprising start for the small bets I placed, first 4 races at Meydan producing plenty to be interested in and a few for the notebook for sure.

The opening maiden produced 4 types that could well at Meydan in the next few seasons, Oasis Dream colt CIRCLE DREAM was a good winner & will have more to come, ROY ORBISON ran well to get 2nd and will be better over further with apparently a 10f race at Al Aain lined up soon, 3rd home DAFFG finished very strongly and should improve a lot for the experience, 4th home SKYRIDER is one that Doug Watson has spoken very well of and given most of his horses improve for their first run then should prove worth following in the coming weeks at Meydan.


PIRATES COVE & TRENCHES are both included in my horses to follow section and they definitely look they justified that place with both producing very good runs in the 2nd race, PIRATE'S COVE shot clear and looked like winning only to get nailed by stablemate Pit Stop who came from miles behind, TRENCHES ran a sound race full of promise to finish 3rd and will have more to give.

"First to catch the eye is the fact Godolphin have 3 entered via Dowayla, Desert Mountain & Naaeebb all running for Saeed Bin Suroor, Godolphin do target success at Meydan but it's surprising to see them have entries so early, they clearly have a plan/targets for those entered so will be fascinating to watch them perform."

that was my opening paragraph in the early thoughts section and happy to see NAAEEBB do well to win on his Meydan debut, was a weak race but he had a terrible draw and will only improve for experience so not a bad performance at all, another justifying his place in the To Follow list.
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Re: 2017/18 Meydan Racing season - discussion & selections

Postby tbuckley » Thu Nov 09, 2017 5:01 pm

well I had MIZBAH & GRAND ARGENTIER Each Way, they finished 2nd & 3rd but I hope this posted did help somebody, wish I'd chucked TRINITY FORCE into my bets lol :-

"
His thoughts on his ride in the 4.50, TRINITY FORCE, were that they believe there will be loads of pace in the race and that could help set it up for something to come from off the pace and that should suit TRINITY FORCE and help him run a good race & give him a chance but he admitted it's a very tough race and that MIZBAH is the one to beat."
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Re: 2017/18 Meydan Racing season - discussion & selections

Postby Robmull » Thu Nov 09, 2017 7:21 pm

As anticipated, the track appeared to produce relatively slow times today, which suggests that the winners, plus those horses that endured hard races are likely to need plenty of time to recover, so may be worth opposing if they are declared to race at the next couple of meetings.

My only selection, AJRAAM finished third at 9/2, so provided an Each Way return, almost equal to my stake, so no real damage done, but in hindsight his draw in stall 11 was probably the reason why he couldn’t secure as prominent an early position as was needed to win the race.

That was probably his best chance of winning this season, but if allowed plenty of time between races (more than 6 weeks) he may just pop up in a non carnival handicap over 6 or 7 furlongs, between now and the end of March.

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Re: 2017/18 Meydan Racing season - discussion & selections

Postby tbuckley » Thu Nov 09, 2017 9:38 pm

well this was the best of my e/w multiples

e/w lucky 31 :-

3.05 - Ejbaar
4.15 - Mears
4.50 - Grand Argentier - pl 12/1
5.25 - Almanaara - WON 12/1
6.00 - Munaaser - 2nd 6/1

that paid a fair profit, unfortunately the other 2 were rubbish so made a loss overall, had Munaaser won it would have made a slight profit overall so tight margins.

still I enjoyed the action from Meydan and learnt plenty, I'll add thoughts on here when I can, but I will also be updating my Meydan blog with thoughts in the comments section so remember to check that out as well :-

https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=413174


bring on the next fixture at Meydan, just 2 weeks to wait!!! :win:
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