Horse racing Discussion and information Monday 6th November

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Horse racing Discussion and information Monday 6th November

Postby meoldmate » Sun Nov 05, 2017 3:16 pm

SOUTHWELL 1.00 - 4.00 Going Good

KEMPTON 1.20 - 4.20 going Standard

PLUMPTON 1.40 - 4.10 Going Good to Soft

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Re: Horse racing Discussion and information Monday 6th November

Postby Robmull » Sun Nov 05, 2017 7:21 pm

I don’t intend to have a bet on Monday, as the jumps meetings at Plumpton and Southwell are pretty mediocre, whilst Kempton is my least favourite all weather track, as I never seem to have got to grips with the draw/pace angles -too many slowly run races for my liking.

However, the Melbourne Cup will be run at 4.00 am (UK time) on Tuesday morning, which should give punters something to get their teeth into with 24 runners to assess.

I was initially keen on a couple of European raiders, in Tiberian (French trained runners have won twice in the past decade) and Red Carnival (German raiders have won once during the period), however I am having second thoughts as they have been allocated the coffin stalls of 23 and 24, so it is back to the drawing board for me.

With plenty of high quality jumps racing over the weekend, I wonder how many punters noticed that the Nick Williams trained Agrapart finished well beaten in a Grade 1 Hurdle at Auteuil on Saturday?

On its own that form is nothing to get excited about, however Agrapart always seems to need his first 2 races to get race fit each season, so will be of interest next time out, preferably in the UK or Ireland on soft, or heavy ground, when he could be sent off a massive odds, bearing in mind his recent poor form - perhaps a horse for the tracker :?

Finally, I would like to wish everyone all the best with their selections and hopefully we can find some good winners on this thread today.

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Re: Horse racing Discussion and information Monday 6th November

Postby ians6290 » Sun Nov 05, 2017 10:02 pm

Robmull I'm not sure where Agrapart will go next but it may be that he is dropped in grade and/or trip? It would be interesting if he ran over an intermediate distance on his favoured soft ground.

He's already in my tracker and I've got written down that he may go novice chasing but I can't see that happening now and I can't remember exactly why I've written that down.

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Re: Horse racing Discussion and information Monday 6th November

Postby meoldmate » Sun Nov 05, 2017 11:05 pm

Staying on these shores with Southwell 3.00, this looks a good handicap for a Monday here and HIDDEN OASIS could be the answer to this just under two mile race over hurdles.
Use to be trained by David Wachman on the flat before joining J J O'Neill team and with good ground this son of Lawman can show his flat speed.
Master Of Finance is another flat recruit and was trained by Mark Johnston, I always believe any horse comes from that yard to the winter game has had plenty of racing and may be slightly burnt out.
Top weight Celestial Magic has the ability but has plenty of weight to consider and this might stop him from lifting this purse.
I rate Stepover the danger but this looks exposed with seventeen runs over hurdles and producing three wins with three placed, likes it here but I am hoping my selection has the turn of foot to stay ahead of him.
Generous Day is a bit of an unknown with six runs without winning but was well supported at Uttoxeter but that was a class five handicap and he was one paced in the closing stages.
Ex Irish raider Wolfslair has to show he has settled over here and might find this race on the short side with all his form over further.

J J O'Neill could be having a good afternoon with three runners at the meeting and all have the potential of winning which Aidan Coleman is on two and this includes my selection for this race today.
bet365 go 100/30 best price and many other are lower, act quickly could be the case here.

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Re: Horse racing Discussion and information Monday 6th November

Postby Robmull » Mon Nov 06, 2017 12:32 pm

Here are a few stats that may assist members to narrow down the 24 runners in the Melbourne Cup (4.00 am UK time, tomorrow) at Flemington.

Previously won a Group or Graded race – 10/10
Previously won over at least 1m4f - 10/10
Carried no more than 8st 9lb - 9/10
Aged four or five - 8/10 (based on northern hemisphere ages)
Highest previous Racing Post Rating of between 114 and 123 - 7/10
Drawn in stalls between 5 and 13 - 7/10
Top-four finish last time out - 7/10
Bred outside Australia and New Zealand - 6/10
Had run in a recognised trial (e.g. Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate, Mackinnon Stakes, Geelong Cup or Turnbull Stakes) - 6/10

Having applied the above trends to the 24 strong field, the horse I like best is BIG DUKE, despite the fact that he has failed a couple of the more minor trends, as his best RPR is only 110 and he hasn’t run in one of the recognised trials.

He was beaten into fourth place (by 2 lengths) by Who Shot Thebarman, when sent off as favourite in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup last time, but found trouble when making his challenge and is now 6 lbs better off with that rival.

It is also worth noting that his trainer, Darren Weir has (according to the Racing Post) saddled 31 winners from 210 runners at this track during the past 5 seasons for an incredible LSP of 162.15 pts.

Although BIG DUKE is currently available at best odds of 20/1, I am inclined to back him Each Way at 16/1 with SkyBet, as they are offering 1/5 odds on 6 places, which in my opinion provides a good chance of securing a profit on the race.

Does anyone have any thoughts on the ‘race that stops a nation’?

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Re: Horse racing Discussion and information Monday 6th November

Postby Allan AvocadoRacing » Mon Nov 06, 2017 12:53 pm

Meoldmate

The 3pm looks a decent enough race for a bet today and I looked at it from a few different angles. I felt Hidden Oasis has been given a high enough handicap mark due to running ok so far in non handicaps and will need to improve a bit to win today.

I've gone for Master Of Finance who's been running ok in higher classes and his mark continues to slide. Based on his flat OR he should be winning off his mark today.

I agree with your points on the other runners in the race.

Good luck with your selection.

A

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Re: Horse racing Discussion and information Monday 6th November

Postby misterjohn » Mon Nov 06, 2017 3:15 pm

Tropics in the 1550 kemp 12/1 looks over priced dropped 3lb for a 3lth beating last time out that was its best run for a while and is thrown in on its best turf form this has a good record around here 2nd 2nd 1st 3rd

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Re: Horse racing Discussion and information Monday 6th November

Postby meoldmate » Mon Nov 06, 2017 4:19 pm

Just watched the recording Allan and you were right about improving with Hidden Oasis travelled to the final bend and found nothing disappointing to say the least.
The money that was down at Uttoxeter was only borrowed and looked to of come on for that outing and the raise in class he took in his stride but what he beat, may not prove to much.

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Re: Horse racing Discussion and information Monday 6th November

Postby Gman84 » Mon Nov 06, 2017 5:47 pm

Here are a few stats that may assist members to narrow down the 24 runners in the Melbourne Cup (4.00 am UK time, tomorrow) at Flemington.

Previously won a Group or Graded race – 10/10
Previously won over at least 1m4f - 10/10
Carried no more than 8st 9lb - 9/10
Aged four or five - 8/10 (based on northern hemisphere ages)
Highest previous Racing Post Rating of between 114 and 123 - 7/10
Drawn in stalls between 5 and 13 - 7/10
Top-four finish last time out - 7/10
Bred outside Australia and New Zealand - 6/10
Had run in a recognised trial (e.g. Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate, Mackinnon Stakes, Geelong Cup or Turnbull Stakes) - 6/10

Having applied the above trends to the 24 strong field, the horse I like best is BIG DUKE, despite the fact that he has failed a couple of the more minor trends, as his best RPR is only 110 and he hasn’t run in one of the recognised trials.

He was beaten into fourth place (by 2 lengths) by Who Shot Thebarman, when sent off as favourite in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup last time, but found trouble when making his challenge and is now 6 lbs better off with that rival.

It is also worth noting that his trainer, Darren Weir has (according to the Racing Post) saddled 31 winners from 210 runners at this track during the past 5 seasons for an incredible LSP of 162.15 pts.

Although BIG DUKE is currently available at best odds of 20/1, I am inclined to back him Each Way at 16/1 with SkyBet, as they are offering 1/5 odds on 6 places, which in my opinion provides a good chance of securing a profit on the race.

Does anyone have any thoughts on the ‘race that stops a nation’?
Hi Rob

I always enjoy the Melbourne Cup, it's a great race steeped in history with an international flavour.

I've got two I like against the field and both were placed last year. Max Dynamite was 2nd and has been given a nice draw this time around in 2. He's had a light campaign with a couple of runs over the summer but this has been clearly the aim. Generally 14/1 but I've taken 12's wirth SkyBet and the extra place. The other I like is Hartnell, 4th last year, 4lb lower now and drawn fine in 12. Has been running over shorter since last year but again, this looks the target and despite being top of the handicap can put in a decent show at 25's with Skybet and 6 places.

Good luck to anyone taking a punt on the race that stops a nation.

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Re: Horse racing Discussion and information Monday 6th November

Postby Randy Rann » Mon Nov 06, 2017 6:25 pm

Cheers GMan

I love the Melbourne Cup and sadly get up to watch it on ATR! I have plenty of Aussie Pals who'll be enjoying Cup Day and the texts pinging from Down Under always make me hanker for another trip to Oz.

It looks a difficult race to decipher tonight and have narrowed it down to two who could go well at a price.

Tiberian would be some story in the race that often throws up a yarn or two.
He was supposedly sired by a teaser but has comparable form from Europe with Marmelo through Talismanic.
He beat that horse twice in France and that looks even better considering that one won at the Breeders' Cup
He has a tough draw but Hearbreak City came from the car park to place last season
He'll find it hard to win on Aussie debut but considering European form looks like a plan is well afoot!
Took 25's prior to Talismanic's win and have dived in again for a bit of 20's (5 places with Betfred)

The other I like is Libran who has a better draw and stays well. He was decent for Alan Swinbank (sadly departed) before being sold Down Under and has improved with each run. He'll love the track & ground and I always thought he was a future decent stayer when here in England.
He isn't as classy as some but does seem tough and probably needed time in Oz to prove he is as good as when he was here.
Should go well at a price

Anyway good luck all and "The Race That Stops A Nation" normally wakes everyone in my household! Well it did last year when Almandim won! Hopefully these two can go well this time around

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Re: Horse racing Discussion and information Monday 6th November

Postby Robmull » Mon Nov 06, 2017 6:37 pm

Hi chaps,

Great insights and the fact that we have chosen 5 horses between us suggests that it is a very open race this year.

Good luck with your selections and hopefully we will find the winner between us.

All the best.

Rob.

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Re: Horse racing Discussion and information Monday 6th November

Postby Gazza66 » Mon Nov 06, 2017 10:35 pm

Hi rob these big handicaps as we know are mine fields I am going to have a small e/w bet on u s army ranger 50/1 3rd over 2 mile 6furlongs at ascots surely proves he will get the trip and with six places on offer I take my chance at that price even though he may not have a great draw best of luck to all gazza

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