OLBG Mares Hurdle at Wetherby

TeddyT
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OLBG Mares Hurdle at Wetherby

Postby TeddyT » Fri Nov 03, 2017 7:22 am

The OLBG Mares Series will be starting again on the Saturday 4th November at Wetherby.

There are currently 14 entries in the OLBG.com Mares' Hurdle including mares from the stables of Alan King, Warren Greatrex, Dan Skelton and Nicky Henderson. The full declarations will be available later today and we will update news of those on this page.

The Wetherby race will be run over two miles and has been won in the last five years by Stephanie Frances, Blue Buttons, Aurore D’Estruval, Cockney Sparrow and Une Artiste.

Please add your discussion and insight on this race here and don’t forget to add a tip comment for the race for which there is a special £20 prize to the most informative comment.
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Re: OLBG Mares Hurdle at Wetherby

Postby TeddyT » Fri Nov 03, 2017 10:59 am

Final Declarations with trainer and jockey:
  • La Bague Au Roi Warren Greatrex Richard Johnson
    Giveaway Glance Alan King Tom Bellamy
    Graceful Legend Ben Case Daryl Jacob
    Hello Sweetie PE Collins JJ Burke
    Intense Tango Karl Burke Tom Scudamore
    Lady Buttons Philip Kirby Adam Nicol
    Late Night Lily Dan Skelton Harry Skelton
    Miss Night Owl Tom George Adrian Heskin
8 run
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Re: OLBG Mares Hurdle at Wetherby

Postby Robmull » Fri Nov 03, 2017 12:34 pm

It appears to be a competitive renewal and good to see that there are 8 confirmed runners, so hopefully Each Way backers will have a reasonable target to aim for with 3 places on offer.

Here are a few stats that may assist members who are attending the meeting, just having a bet on the race from the comfort of their own armchairs, or entering the tipping competition to find the winner, or a nice priced placed runner.

Age is of little significance as recent winners have covered the spread between 4 and 8 years old.

All of the past 5 winners had an official rating of at least 135.

Only 1 of the past 9 winners carried more than 10.12.

7 of the past 9 winners came from the first 3 in the betting market, with 4 having been sent off as favourite.

Only 1 of the past 9 winners had won it’s previous race, whilst only 1 other winner had rewarded Each Way support when last seen.

Alan King and Dan Skelton have both previously trained a winner of this race.

Talking of trainers, there are 2 stables that have impressive records at this track, namely:

Dan Skelton - 20 winners from 60 runners: SR 33%: LSP 14.16 pts, and

Warren Greatrex - 16 winners from 53 runners: SR 30%: LSP 14.12 pts

Good luck everyone.
Last edited by Robmull on Fri Nov 03, 2017 4:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: OLBG Mares Hurdle at Wetherby

Postby custard357 » Fri Nov 03, 2017 2:19 pm

La Bague Au Roi looks to be the superior horse of this bunch but I rarely back anything that hasn't raced for so long. Three of these Mares took all the places in a recent two mile hurdle at Stratford 1. Miss Knight Owl 2. Giveaway Glance 3. Graceful Legend.Giveaway Glance pushed the winner all the way on the run in, perhaps showing her flat racing pedigree, but as I'm also a bit biased against horses that run in both forms I'm going for Miss Knight Owl for the win, despite Rob's warning above about horses who've won their last race. I'd consider an Each Way on Graceful Legend too.

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Re: OLBG Mares Hurdle at Wetherby

Postby TeddyT » Fri Nov 03, 2017 4:24 pm

Best prices at the moment:

La Bague Au Roi 11/8
Miss Night Owl 13/2
Giveaway Glance 8/1
Lady Buttons 8/1
Late Night Lily 14/1
Hello Sweetie 16/1
Graceful Legend 16/1
Intense Tango 33/1


It would be great to hear the views of some of our members as to who they think is going to win the first race in the 2017/18 OLBG Mares' Hurdle series.
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Re: OLBG Mares Hurdle at Wetherby

Postby TeddyT » Fri Nov 03, 2017 4:59 pm

Six four year olds ran in the equivalent race in the last 5 years and returned 3 winners and a 2nd.

2015 Intense Tango 2nd 5/1
2014 Aurore D'Estruval 1st 10/11F
2013 Cockney Sparrow 2st 3/1
2013 L'Unique 6th 5/2F
2013 Exclusive Dancer 8th 200/1
2012 Une Artiste 1st 13/8

This may suggest that the younger mares could have an advantage. If so Alan King's 4yo Giveaway Glance may be overpriced at 8/1 and could have a decent each-way chance.
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Re: OLBG Mares Hurdle at Wetherby

Postby Alexman » Fri Nov 03, 2017 5:01 pm

Well, with the 9 runners in the race we have 3 places in the race to aim for, and with the favourite looking to be around the even money mark I feel there is plenty of value we can look for in the longer priced horses, in the hope of getting some nice place money and a good e/w return. However, I will return to the favourite for the outright win bet.

Dan Skelton has had the winner of this race in recent times, indeed he and Alan King are the only past winners of this race represented so it may pay to look at their runners first of all. However, Alan King is running at a 6% strike race in the last fortnight, and the Dan Skelton Late Night Lilly was doing nothing when she fell on seasonal reappearance, odd for a horse who has previously shown well on her seasonal debut, so I would overlook both these horses and look to trainers who have not yet won this race.

The horse I do quite like in this race is Lady Buttons and I will outline the reasons now. At 6/1 you can still get some e/w value about this horse who was deemed good enough by connections to have a go at a Grade 1 race at Punchestown last season. She was outclassed in that race, but prior to that had rattled off a hat trick of wins on soft ground, so will not be worried about any rain at the track. She looked to have been left plenty to work on on reappearance but got round fine and it would not shock me if she was much improved here. Philip Kirby is going along at a fair enough strike rate, has a few winners at the track and this could be a race he wants to target with a mare who was slightly below grade 1 class.

However, if you want a straight up win bet then the Warren Greatrex trained La Bague Au Roi could be much too good for her opponents here. Warren has a cracking 31% strike rate at Wetherby in the last 5 seasons and this mare danced some big dances last year. She was not beaten that far by the high class Finian's Oscar at Aintree and ran with credit at Cheltenham. She had beat decent mares like Dusky Legend and won listed race last year, is top rated in this race by at least 8 pounds yet only carries 2 pounds more and I think Warren will want to win this before going on to bigger races in the season ahead. Could be a real star

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Re: OLBG Mares Hurdle at Wetherby

Postby buchanski » Sat Nov 04, 2017 9:50 am

I agree with you about Lady Buttons, I think there is a lot to like about her chances.

I would still argue that we don't quite know how good she is as she won off a mark of 125 rather comfortably at class 3 level and her next run was when fading late over a further trip in G1 company. She is currently rated 132 but could easily have more improvement in her.

With having the benefit of a recent run on the flat and a prominent running style over a trip that she should get comfortably I like her chances of getting into the places. The official going is now soft in which she has winning form and the favourite has had all her impressive recent form on ground with good in the description.

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