Market Moves, used to be interesting but a bit pointless these days?

mantistoboggan
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Market Moves, used to be interesting but a bit pointless these days?

Postby mantistoboggan » Wed Nov 01, 2017 11:13 am

It used to be something I'd keep an eye on for interest, but nowadays I wouldn't really give it a second thought and a drift in the odds wouldn't put me off making a selection. With the amount of tipsters like Hugh Taylor and Andy Houlding, not to mention huge accounts with loads of followers on social media all it takes is for them to tip a horse and the price shrinks due to the sheer amount of people backing. Not taking this in to consideration and just blindly looking at the changes in the market would give anyone the impression there's an almighty insider gamble going on when it's just someone's tip rather than inside info. Does anyone here still use market moves as a guide for them?

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Re: Market Moves, used to be interesting but a bit pointless these days?

Postby buchanski » Wed Nov 01, 2017 12:28 pm

I used to keep a record of the top 5 market movers every morning around 10:00am on Oddschecker as I believe that early market moves can be significant. The only time I would take any real notice of market moves is when it comes for an unraced horse or when it's from certain trainers.

There have been times when I've noticed my horse drift in price and as you say it's because Hugh Taylor has tipped a horse in the same race and the market adjusts but that wouldn't put me off whatsoever.

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Re: Market Moves, used to be interesting but a bit pointless these days?

Postby Robmull » Wed Nov 01, 2017 1:34 pm

I haven’t taken any notice of market movers for many years now, as I tend to place the vast majority of my bets during the evening before the race.

The only exceptions are wagers on the exchanges, where I often have to wait until there is sufficient liquidity in the market.

In my opinion, the problem with following market movers that are being backed is that by the time they are noticed as such, the price has contracted so much that they offer little in the way of value.

I wonder if there is any edge that can be achieved by either laying the horses that have contracted significantly in price, or backing what were assumed to be fancied runners that drift in the market as a result of a big move for one of their rivals?

Sounds counterintuitive, but is often pays to go against the crowd when betting :?

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Re: Market Moves, used to be interesting but a bit pointless these days?

Postby nors » Tue Nov 07, 2017 10:25 am

I take note but then dig deeper into why the horse has been supported, if I can find a reason then I decide whether the reason has any validity.

The bookies know that bettors analyse the markets deeply and it seems deliberately confuse punters with lots of moves that have no rhyme or reason.

Anyone who read the David Evans case should take note of the information contained in the judgement and of what the bookies representative said.

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