Horse racing Discussion and information Tuesday 31st October

meoldmate
Legend
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 19978
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 11:00 pm
Location: Fife

Horse racing Discussion and information Tuesday 31st October

Postby meoldmate » Mon Oct 30, 2017 5:58 pm

CATTERICK 12.35 - 4.20 Going Soft

BANGOR ON DEE 12.55 - 4.10 Going Good

CHEPSTOW 1.15 - 4.30 Going Good to Soft

WOLVERHAMPTON 4.40 - 8.10 Going Standard

Robmull
Triple Crown Winner
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 2217
Joined: Mon Apr 21, 2014 11:00 pm

Re: Horse racing Discussion and information Tuesday 31st October

Postby Robmull » Mon Oct 30, 2017 9:18 pm

I am determined to ensure that we don’t have a second successive blank day with no comments on the daily thread.

Whilst today’s racing is fairly average and I must admit that nothing really stands out, the 3.55 at Chepstow, which is a class 5 handicap hurdle is quiet an interesting event.

If Smart Boy performs to a similar level to when winning a similarly mediocre class 5 handicap hurdle at Plumpton by 30 lengths just 8 days ago, then his 17 rivals will be running for places.

He carries just a 7 lb penalty for that victory, so is clearly well treated in this race, but he may just find this race coming a bit too soon, so perhaps there is some hope for his rivals.

One horse who is likely to run to form is GRAMS AND OUNCES, who has won 7 races on the flat (including 3 class 6 handicaps this summer, of which the last 2 wins were at this track) and a further 7 victories over hurdles.

At 10 years old, he is unlikely to improve, but is clearly in good form (runner up over hurdles at Exeter on his latest start 18 days ago) and appears to be a likely candidate to at least make the frame and thus reward Each Way support (currently 18 runners, so 4 places on offer) at current best odds of 12/1.

Finally, I would like to wish everyone all the best with their selections and hopefully we can find some good winners on this thread today.

Recent blogs:

How To Become A Sports Betting Millionaire (A Low Risk Strategy)
https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412704

Profitable Horse Racing Betting System – Introducing the VALUE CALCULATOR
https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412142

Profitable Horse Racing Betting System – Backing Value Selections in Multiple Bets
https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=413048

meoldmate
Legend
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 19978
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 11:00 pm
Location: Fife

Re: Horse racing Discussion and information Tuesday 31st October

Postby meoldmate » Mon Oct 30, 2017 9:46 pm

Well done Rob, great to see someone is keeping the flagship going.

I have not looked at Chepstow as yet but I have an interest at Bangor with following BALLYCOOL in the 2.30.
Miss Lucinda Russell has sent this one down to this track once again and could be getting a good run from her charge with Derek Fox being his only ride.
This ten year old has won on this course in the past and was just run out of things when last here, today back to two miles could see him being in the thick of the action and Derek Fox making full use of him before coming to the last.
His rating of 92 was the same as it was in September and he looks well weighted to give a good account as his best mark is 107 which he achieved at Uttoxeter back in 2015, at 4/1 best odds could be well worth a dabble espicailly with him being sent down from Kinross, bit of a journey.

meoldmate
Legend
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 19978
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 11:00 pm
Location: Fife

Re: Horse racing Discussion and information Tuesday 31st October

Postby meoldmate » Mon Oct 30, 2017 10:01 pm

Bangor 3.35 a national hunt flat race, Alan King has STYLISH MOMENT entered with Wayne Hutchinson in the saddle, with Alan King stable runners going well this bay gelding of owner Trevor Hemmings is sired by Milan and is bred for the game and could be ready to be accountable on debut

meoldmate
Legend
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 19978
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 11:00 pm
Location: Fife

Re: Horse racing Discussion and information Tuesday 31st October

Postby meoldmate » Tue Oct 31, 2017 6:00 am

This thread has been viewed many times and no one has come forth with an import, come on folks, there hundreds of you betting on the competitions, come back to the discussion page, this place was full of information in the past, let you bring this thread to the fore once again.

If you have a done a selection with reasoning on the competition pages, bring them to this thread with a view that can form a debate or a positive view of a big run and not for the sake of praying for a 10/1 just to get in the top half of the table for a reward.

I do expect a lull now the winter is setting in and racing is starting earlier plus many of us have work or other things to attend to but we have always had this.

Here’s a debate to figure with, when do you call it a day with gambling when it does not come enjoyable and how do you know it is not enjoyable as we all like to punt.
The government is clamping down on gaming machines (trying) in shops, on line is more dangerous, this method of gambling is more of a danger than horse racing and football.
So what is the view of our members on this??????

ians6290
Group 1 Class
Tips
Posts: 316
Joined: Wed Oct 05, 2016 4:39 pm
Location: Leeds, UK

Re: Horse racing Discussion and information Tuesday 31st October

Postby ians6290 » Tue Oct 31, 2017 8:21 am

Meoldmate, as you have stated it is harder to have a problem when betting on sports, but I would like to add as long as you have a decent staking plan. My staking plan is small stakes so I will never bust myself and that is a conscious decision made by myself.

However, i can apply the following scenario to poker even though I still only play small stakes poker. Because of the ongoing nature of poker, especially online, it becomes difficult to settle down once you are 'on tilt'. If I ever get to the feeling that I simply don't care about my stack or feel sort of 'numb' that is when I stop. Because at that point you have gone past caring.

Although this happens to me during poker, rarely nowadays because like with sports betting I only play with affordable stakes, it has never really happened to me with sports betting.

I hope the above makes sense because it is quite difficult to explain.

concerto
Group 1 Class
Tips
Posts: 343
Joined: Tue Sep 16, 2008 11:00 pm

Re: Horse racing Discussion and information Tuesday 31st October

Postby concerto » Tue Oct 31, 2017 8:23 am

There may be references to these topics somewhere on this website but has Aiden O'Brien's recent world record achievement not been worthy of noting here and what about the recent retirement of Jimmy Fortune after decades of dedicated service in the saddle?

Where does O'Brien rank amongst the pantheon of great trainers in racing history? Personally I cannot imagine anyone surpassing the feats of Vincent O'Brien. This year is the centenary of the great man's birth and younger members may want to research his achievements in the sport. Racing is not all about punting and is a marvellous sport with a rich history that can be enjoyed for its own sake. (Discuss?)

Robmull
Triple Crown Winner
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 2217
Joined: Mon Apr 21, 2014 11:00 pm

Re: Horse racing Discussion and information Tuesday 31st October

Postby Robmull » Tue Oct 31, 2017 11:55 am

Some fascinating topics have been posted for discussion today, which I feel deserve a response and will hopefully generate further discussion.

I will start with the easy topic first, namely meoldmate’s selection STYLISH MOMENT in the ‘Bumper’ at Bangor (3.35).

The stable’s runners in these races at Bangor have a record of 3 wins from 9 runners for a LSP of 5.75 pts in recent seasons. In addition, Alan King has sent out 4 winners from just 8 runners in ‘Bumpers’ so far this season, for a LSP of 11.18 pts, so plenty of positives.

However, his 4 runners in ‘Bumpers’ this month have all been beaten, which from a stats perspective is a bit concerning, albeit the last 2 horses were sent off at 25/1 and 28/1.

As for FOBT’s, I am reminded of a book entitled GOOD OMENS (a seriously good and funny read), which was written by the late, great Terry Pratchett and the excellent Neil Gaiman, in which the main demon who’s name is Crowley, has influenced us mere mortals to develop some devilish ways to spread misery throughout the human race including the M25 and Milton Keynes, to name a couple.

In my opinion Satan would highly commend Crowley for conjuring up FOBTs, as not only are they highly addictive for people who are susceptible to unwise gambling and spread misery for them and their families, but are also ideal vehicles for criminals to perpetrate fraud and money laundering.

Reducing the limit per spin from £100 to £2 may not eradicate problem gambling, or prevent criminal activity, but it would be a good step in the right direction.

I agree with ians6290 that it is imperative to have a controlled approach to betting, but we must not forget that gambling addiction is an illness, just like alcoholism, or drug abuse and it is very difficult for those unfortunate people who suffer from this illness to kick the habit.

Finally, concerto has raised a good point regarding Aidan O’Brien’s achievement, as in past years someone on OLBG would have posted a separate thread to congratulate him on a incredible feat.

OK he trains for some of the most wealthy owners in the world and hence enjoys the luxury of training many of the best horses, but they still have to be trained to perfection to win these highly competitive Group/Grade 1 races and on many occasions the Coolmore team have shown that they are brilliant tacticians.

As for attempting to compare the abilities of Aidan and Vincent O’Brien, I think that it is impossible, as they are/were both great trainers, but horse racing has changed markedly over the years, so there is no way of knowing whether Aidan would have flourished during Vincent’s heyday, or visa versa.

Anyway, enough of my ramblings and look forward to viewing the thoughts of other members.

martinr
Triple Crown Winner
Tips
Posts: 2173
Joined: Sat Jun 30, 2012 11:00 pm
Location: Under a Southern Sky

Re: Horse racing Discussion and information Tuesday 31st October

Postby martinr » Tue Oct 31, 2017 12:42 pm

Not sure what Shaun Harris is doing but he hasn't been able to get much production out of a decent handicapper in Dolphin Village since taking the horse over from J. Chappell-Hyam. The booking of Manuel Fernandez caught the eye today however and I'm giving the horse one last chance. He's had 5 rides for Harris for 2 wins, both on Culloden, who he also rides today. These are Fernandez' only 2 rides today and they're the sort of selections I like to put into Each Way doubles. I feel I'm getting some sort of correlation with the two, but of course that can work in a negative way :P

mrboombastic
Listed Class
Tips
Posts: 28
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2017 9:33 am

Re: Horse racing Discussion and information Tuesday 31st October

Postby mrboombastic » Tue Oct 31, 2017 12:56 pm

I've started an All Weather Handicap Blog here viewtopic.php?f=31&t=64961&p=1633858#p1633858 but I thought I'd add the post I just made, in case it was of any use to anyone.

The first qualifying race is the Wolverhampton 18.10 and it's a C6 5F race, and I've spotted a few in with chances

Tidal's Baby is the joint favourite at the moment, and at 4/1 I think it's a price worth chancing.

Runs off 57 and has been running consistently off marks of 57-59 without winning recently, including 6 2nds in a row

It drops to 5f, which for me is the doubt, I believe it runs better over further, but a solid 6/21 at Navan, and a 2/11 at Salisbury off 59 makes good reading. It's never ran at Wolves, but has solid AW form at Kempton, and not so much at Lingfield. It'll no doubt be slowly away, and held up before finishing fast. Just depends on whether it'll get there or not, but I think it's solid for a place.

Your Gifted is a big price at 25/1, based on it's Wolves form from last year

From October '15 to April '16, it ran 11 times at Wolves, winning 3 times, with the highest mark being off 63. It's form since then has been patchy to say the least, but it got its nose in front in July at Ffos Las, and a return to Wolves, off a mark of 57, might give it a chance. It might finish last, but a weak race means 25/1 is worth chancing

Regal Miss is the big outsider, at 33/1, and the final selection, once again on previous form

It's only run at Wolves was a shocker, finishing 9/10 off 61

It's 5lb lower today, running off 55, and I think it's a better horse than that. A 2nd off 57 at Lingfield recently, goes to show that.

It does seem to prefer Chelmsford and Lingfield as tracks, but as mentioned, this race is really poor, and the 2nd off 57 is unfortunately some of the best form on offer.

Selections
Tidal's Baby 4/1
Your Gifted 25/1
Regal Miss 33/1

To the 18.40 now, a 6f C6 handicap, division 1

Broadhaven Honey is one of 2 3yos in the field, and the first selection at 12/1

It's only AW form, is a 4/10 at Lingfield, where it finished half a legnth behind Kyllukey in 3rd. Kylluckey is a solid horse, it was getting 3lb from the selection, and after that race, went on to finish 2nd, twice, at Kempton off the same mark. It's not the worst piece of form, and Broadhaven Honey is 3lb lower today.

The favourite here, Fairway to Heaven, actually finished a legnth behind Kyllukey recently off the same mark, so I don't understand how the selection is 10/1, and the fav 9/4

You can get 50/1 on Dalah which I believe could be a huge price

It's returned from a break, to finish a good 4th at Kempton, and then failed to stay the 7f LTO.

45 is an absolute basement mark, and one I feel the horse may take advantage of here. LTO at Wolves (in May) it finished 4/8, a neck behind Strictly Carter, who went on to win off the same mark, and have a legnth in front of Zavikon, who has since finished 4/13 off the same mark.

That's not the worst form ever, for a horse at 50/1. The horse is 3lb lower than that run, and for me, is in with a chance.

Last selection is the old boy, Triple Dream at 33s

It's running off 56, 2lb lower than it's last run, a 3/12 at Kempton. It also finished (a distant) 2nd over C&D back in August, off 59. The 3rd and 4th horses have both won since, so it's a nice piece of form. Obviously at the price there's doubts, it hasn't won for over a year, but I like it at a big price.

Selections
Broadhaven Honey 12/1
Dalah 50/1
Triple Dream 33/1

I'll follow with the 2nd division of that race, and the C5 9F race shortly

martinr
Triple Crown Winner
Tips
Posts: 2173
Joined: Sat Jun 30, 2012 11:00 pm
Location: Under a Southern Sky

Re: Horse racing Discussion and information Tuesday 31st October

Postby martinr » Tue Oct 31, 2017 1:34 pm


Here’s a debate to figure with, when do you call it a day with gambling when it does not come enjoyable and how do you know it is not enjoyable as we all like to punt.
The government is clamping down on gaming machines (trying) in shops, on line is more dangerous, this method of gambling is more of a danger than horse racing and football.
So what is the view of our members on this??????
Gambling addiction is the elephant in the room with sites like OLBG, but please don't take that as a criticism of this site. OLBG has always supported and encouraged threads that focus on educating the punter and I think this is the best way to fight the problem.
The fact is that gambling is entirely about mathematics, yet bookmakers, slot machine makers, casino operators, all try to sell "luck", "fortune" and other illusions while taking advantage of offering odds that are below the true probabilities. I think the problems that stem from losing money (recklessly chasing losses, depression, poverty) are all consequences of betting into these negative EV markets.
Governments would do well to focus on educating people on the realities of gambling from school age but conflicts of interest and politics get in the way, so it's left up to forums like this to try and educate.
Sport and horse racing is very different from other types of gambling in that the true probabilities are never set in stone, so there are opportunities to beat the markets in this type of gambling, but even people who only bet on these events still need to understand issues such as money management and discipline. It's a tough game.
This forum has many members who have a good understanding of gambling. (Unfortunately) Twitter and Facebook have caused the demise of forums all over the internet in the past two years and discussions on these topics are harder to find, but hopefully this one continues for a while yet :hope:
I realise that there are many people on this forum that do not have any gambling problems. This post doesn't apply to those recreational bettors that are able to bet and win or lose a reasonable sum as a form of hobby and or entertainment but we have seen plenty of forum members that have admitted to a gambling problem and I feel it's something that is best brought into the open and discussed (although not necessarily on the Daily Racing Thread :P ).

moggie63
2yo
Tips
Posts: 1
Joined: Wed May 31, 2017 8:00 am

Re: Horse racing Discussion and information Tuesday 31st October

Postby moggie63 » Tue Oct 31, 2017 3:01 pm

I wouldn't rule KHELMAN out of the 3.15 today at Catterick.

It's 14/1 and possibly the outsider of the field, but It's given me some good paydays over the last year or so.

I've been at a few meetings lately, I was at Musselburgh to witness Economic Crisis beat Jacob's Pillow narrowly and wasn't really impressed.

With the field now down to seven, and with a good claimer on board, they'll have to run well to beat this.

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: meoldmate