Horse racing Discussion and information Saturday 28th October

meoldmate
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Horse racing Discussion and information Saturday 28th October

Postby meoldmate » Fri Oct 27, 2017 6:08 pm

NEWBURY 1.10 - 5.05 Going Soft

KELSO 1.15 - 5.15 Going Good

LEOPARDSTOWN 1.25 - 5.20 Going Yielding

DONCASTER 1.45 - 5.10 Going Good to Soft

CHELTENHAM 2.00 - 5.30 Going Good

WOLVERHAMPTON 5.45 - 9.15 Going Standard

Expensive Liaison could be opening the card up with a big run at Newbury for Hugo Palmer and James Doyle

Picture Painter could be following up his course and distance win with another at 3.35 Kelso.

With Halloween on show, some scary people can be on the go and a Full Moon can bring out more, who is favourite for the 1.55 Leopardstown.

Charlie Appleby has his youngsters in fine fettle and Al Hajar may follow in with a second win on the trot in the 2.20 Doncaster

Noel Fehily is one of the best jump jockeys around and he can carry on Doing Fine in the 2.00 Cheltenham for trainer Neil Mulholland

Staying with the winning formula of Raashdy in the 7.15 Wolverhampton who won with hardly anything to spare at Kempton last time out.

Have a good Saturday folks, hope these horses placed over can spur some discussion and a winner or too coming to the fore.

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Re: Horse racing Discussion and information Saturday 28th October

Postby The Executioner » Fri Oct 27, 2017 6:47 pm

All eyes will be on wonder mare Winx in the Cox Plate ( 7.00am Moonee Valley ) but at 1/6 is not a betting proposition , but if you shop around you can get 18/1 bar her in a field of just 9 Runners. Folkswood & Humidor - both available at around 20/1 & 25/1 - will carry their share of support and I wouldn't put anyone off them to make the frame. However I couldn't resist an EW play on the outsider Hardham , available as big as 330/1 ( maybe a special Win Only market ) with one firm and 200/1 in places in a general Each Way market. Needs a big career best to take the race but if he runs anywhere near his leading form then he could be batting for a frame position. I'd be more than happy with a top three finish, the place odds simply outweigh the realistic chance of that happening in my view....... Be Lucky :hope: :hope: :hope:
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Re: Horse racing Discussion and information Saturday 28th October

Postby Shrews » Fri Oct 27, 2017 8:29 pm

3.10 Cheltenham - Un Beau Roman 33/1 NAP

This looks a season target for this horse who does well at this time of year and is back down to his last winning mark which came over this CD, on good ground, last November. He's out of the handicap but that can be countered with the fact that last year he won on his season debut and this time he has a run under his belt (unsuitable heavy ground). Therefore he could be capable of achieving a higher mark and he'll probably need to do that from 4lb OOH. I've no doubt Paul Henderson will have him bang on for this.

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Re: Horse racing Discussion and information Saturday 28th October

Postby Pieros » Fri Oct 27, 2017 9:07 pm

What a beauty: the Cheltenham racecourse was open again today and looked fantastic! Derek O’Connor, a genius and one of the best jockeys I’ve ever seen in my life, you can back him without studying the race, and he’ll give you a ride for your money. Unfortunately he won’t ride tomorrow but there is plenty to like in these races: in the opening Singlefarmpayment is the one they all have to beat: he has strong course form and was an unlucky loser of the Ultima last festival; can go well fresh and will surely run his race although 4lbs higher in the ratings. Doing Fine has the advantage of a run under his belt and will improve today but also last year winner Coologue must have every chance: victorious last twice when making his seasonal reappearance, he’s back to winning mark and with Richard Johnson booked should be in the mix especially if getting an easy lead. Nigel Twiston-Davies has his horses in fine form already and Foxtail Hill could be hard to catch over the minimum trip attempting to make it all from the front: a course winner last season over further and unlucky not to land a double when fell in the lead subsequently. Big investment for the Pipe’s yard paying £ 110,000 for Vaniteux and I’m curious to see him back in handicaps, if he can show his old class could be dangerous at this level. The Pertemps Network Handicap looks very competitive and I expect Whataknight to be much fitter then after his seasonal reappearance at Newton Abbot two weeks ago and he looks a decent prospect for the season for in-form Harry Fry’s stable. On the other hand Nicky Henderson is still waiting to score his first winner: that’s a pity as I’m a big fan of his Cultivator that looked a chaser in the making since I saw him live at Ascot last season when winning with plenty in hand in a decent Novices’ Hurdle contest. Don’t be surprised if well fancied horses won’t perform well; trainers are just getting their best horses out there for a run and of course they’ll try to win if they have a chance but they clearly won’t push them now to the limit as the serious plans are later in the season.
Moving to Doncaster there you’ll find the trainers that are shooting their last bullets for the season and they’ll go all in. I’ve been following Sankari Royale for some time and he stretched well during the summer when chasing home some subsequent classic winners like US Navy Flag: he was very unlucky when short of room last time out in Group 3 at Newmarket. Johnny Murtagh goes for the first time blinkers and the motivated Ben Curtis takes over the ride, he might get involved at reasonable odds around 16/1, place claims. The O’Brien’s army is all-in trying to land the 26th Group 1 contest this season: Saxon Warrior looks a strong player even though I thought The Pentagon was the most talented one. He made hard work last time out when landing a Group 3 in Ireland but the form did not work out; they both have clearly strong claims. At current odds of 9/1 with Coral, Bet Victor and Ladbrokes Roaring Lion makes plenty of appeal at Each Way terms as he did well last time out beating Nelson in Group 2 event at Newmarket even though not handling the dip. This flatter track should suit Gosden’s charge better and should be in the mix. People love the 5 furlong sprints although they are unpredictable and real lotteries: Atletico has been promising all season without delivering a good result at this level and now he’s offered at 14/1 on bet365 and William Hill’s boards. Varian’s charge is drawn near the front runner Just Glamorous and could get a nice lead into the race, honest price for an Each Way bet. Similar story for Sir Dancealot but unfortunately he’s now odds on.... passsssssssssssss. So funny to see Pastime running in the last race, I have tipped it here on the forum at 100/1 Each Way when second to Cartographer at Yarmouth, I wish him good luck.

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Re: Horse racing Discussion and information Saturday 28th October

Postby meoldmate » Sat Oct 28, 2017 11:51 am

Most of the meetings today are starting early with the clocks going back an hour tonight.

The first at Newbury a mile novice race and Hugo Palmer may be on the mark with EXPENSIVE LIAISON who has had the one run at Nottingham to her name and finished in fifth place, this run may of been needed and could be coming on a bundle for this outing. The form of this race with ones that have ran since could be questionable.
I think RED STARLIGHT will need to come on more for her sixth place run at Salisbury, KISS ME DAILY one run at Lingfield does not stand out.
One horse I rate a danger and could be a progressive sort is MIRROR MIRROR who is trained by Peter Chapple-Hyam. This filly is by German sire Intello who was a good miler in France and he is by Galileo, breeding gives her a positive look. The form of her Newmarket run has some depth with a couple been placed and she was a bit strong at the beginning of the race plus she met slight trouble in running, with her settling more she could be showing more here today than first thought and the 28/1 could be a possibility of an Each Way shout here.

Conclusion

I was really siding with EXPENSIVE LIAISON but with her form not really working out and 5/2 looks on the short side for what she has shown, I am going to take a chance with MIRROR MIRROR at a price, of course the ones that have yet to race a dark horse could be lurking.

Newbury 1.40 Nursery handicap over six furlongs a competitive race with seven runners, which will mean two places in the place pot punt.
With nurseries top weights are the best in the field and worthy of a very good display and PRESTBURY PARK with James Doyle in the plate looks to have a very good chance.
He will be blazing away in front and he has achieved two wins in doing this tactical move, the question being asked will he see the trip out on soft ground, or will he be vulnerable to a finisher.
His last run was over seven at Newmarket but made no impression there, Mark Johnston may of run him there to give him a stamina test with the view of stepping him back to six with speed being his asset.
With soft ground on show, MR TOP HAT is worth a look as he is by Helmet who excelled on soft ground in Australia and with this David Evans colt winning on heavy ground at Salisbury, he could plenty of his father genes in his blood to give notice of another bug run here with Adam Kirby in the plate.
Another danger is the unplaced York runner TATHMEEN who scooted up over course and distance back in July on soft ground, this win was in a field of five runners and three of them have never boosted the form.
Mick Channon who trains on the doorstep of this racecourse has only two runners at the meeting and I amazed he has not got more here, possibly due to the end of the season, DIAMOND DOUGAL has seen plenty of racing for a two year old and he was won twice with heavy ground and good ground to his record. His win at Haydock on heavy ground was over five furlongs but he saw this trip out at Brighton on good. With his determination to stay on in his races he could be in the equation when the line looms.

Conclusion

PRESTBURY PARK looks the part but the question that comes back and hits me is "will he act on this softer surface"? so I am going to put my hat on David Evans colt MR TOP HAT who did win a five runner affair at Salisbury with past winners in behind and he looks to be holding his form and may enjoy the pace that James Doyle will be setting on the favourite

2.15 Newbury is all about staying as this Group three race is over twelve furlongs and there are many in the field who are looking to find a winning performance.
RAHEEN HOUSE is trained by Brian Meehan who has three runners at Newbury this afternoon and this one could be his best chance of a winner if the step down in trip does not catch him out.
Jamie Spencer will be wanting a searching gallop to bring this ones stamina into play and I would be having this one in my place pot, if he does not win, he looks strong for a place.
Ralph Beckett does well with his fillies and MOUNTAIN BELL is having her first run since finishing second in this race last year and could be going one place better this year.
She has shown she can run well fresh as she won at Windsor on her first run of 2016 and in 2015 on her seasonal debut and only run of that year she came second, with ground as it is today.
Fitness may not be an issue and staying looks to her forte and Martin Harley could be swinging along with Jamie Spencer at the back of the field waiting to make there move.
FRONTIERSMAN looks teh part and James Doyle could be having a good afternoon with earlier fancied runners, the combination won at Newmarket in a listed race and was holding out when the line looms, his speed maybe dented today with soft ground and he will need to find more in at the finish with closer's coming down on top of him.
The pace could be coming from Ascot winner DANEHILL KODIAC and this colt will be enjoying teh conditions on show and could be in the thick of the action once again.

Conclusion

I know Richard Hannon does well at Newbury and DANEHILL KODIAC arrives to this race in good form but the weight he has to give away could see him losing out and I am prepared to take a chance with the filly MOUNTAIN BELL to be ready to run a big race, Ralph Beckett would not be racing her here if she was not sound. 10/1 looks a great price and her speed might see her out gun Raheen House in the last furlong.

Newbury 2.50 James Doyle name appears again and he could be having a bigger say in this race than the earlier ones on MYTHICAL MAGIC who is stepping down in class after being unplaced in a group one behind Happily at Chantilly and third in the race before with Seahenge beating him 1/2 length.
I think there is no conclusion to this race, Charlie Appleby charge will be hard to beat, with seven furlongs looking to be his MYTHICAL MAGIC trip


Newbury 3.20 is another race that I am delving into deeply as I believe CENTURY DREAM will take some beating. This one is one of three I am following this season and Simon Crisford has done well with this Cape Cross colt with four wins from nine outings and three of those four victories were with cut in the ground and today's soft surface will play to this ones strength and Frankie Dettori can be working the oracle on this 2/1 favourite.

Newbury 3.55 not covered by the ITV camera's shame as it looks a very good race to watch.
Working down the card with several that have caught the eye, HIKMAA from Ed Vaughan yard has won two all weather races and been unplaced in two on grass at Newmarket could be interesting but at 5/1 looks on the skinny side.
MAGNOLIA SPRINGS has raced the once and won and this was over course and distance in September, the form of this race has been franked with a winner and a third, this does give her a shout and if she is willing to go forward like last time, she will be an even bigger shout.
Irish raider MOONLIGHT BAY looks a big danger to all as this one won at Naas indicating more to come.
She has only raced three times and they have all been at Naas producing two wins and a fourth, the first two runs were for Kevin Prendergast, now in the hands of G Lyons and he must highly of this filly who is by Pivotal to come to Newbury for her second run under his banner.
MUSICAL ART who raced in a group one at Newmarket last time out and was down the field takes a step down the ladder to compete in this listed race. Paul Cole who trains this Dutch Art filly could be having an end of season good run, with a winner from nine runners appearing along with three placed and this one could be considered here, as she has course form when winning over six furlongs when taking a novice race on her first start, could be a progressive sort and could be more of a player here than a also ran.

Conclusion

If the trip from Ireland has not taken anything out of her, MOONLIGHT BAY could be the answer to this two year old race and giving chase could be MAGNOLIA SPRINGS, with me siding with the Irish raider who looks to be a progressive sort and could have more to offer, Jamie Spencer will be bringing her into the race with a big run for an outstanding performance and one to note for next year.

4.30 Newbury novice stakes over the straight mile and with so many having a first run, not sure what to expect. John Gosden will be expecting a good show from HIGHGARDEN who is by Nathaniel and could be enjoying this trip with the view of staying further next season.
One that has run and was unlucky in running was DREAM OF CAMELOT and she could be giving Gary Moore her trainer a pleasurable day out with this being his only runner.
She was slow away at Salisbury and met with trouble in running at a pinnacle point of the race, today Shane Kelly will be hoping for a clearer passage and producing this filly with a positive chance of winning.
One other that interest me in this race is SPIRIT OF APPIN she is by Champs Elysees and her mother sire was Barathea, ground should be to her liking having genes from these two. Brian Meehan trains and Jamie Spencer on board and she is a January born, could be strong enough to give notice of potential.

Conclusion

I like seeing jockey's and trainers with one runner as they could be hopeful of a big run appearing and making their sole outing pay. DREAM OF CAMELOT could be getting her name into first place and showing how unlucky she was at Salisbury not of won.


5.05 Newbury a ladies amateur race and some good lady jockeys on show but the one I like is Miss Sarah Brotherton and is a very strong lady jockey to have on your side and she is on TAKE TWO who is stepping back into this class five race after racing in a class three. TAKE TWO is an eight year old, so what you see is what you get and he can make his presence felt in this race today.

That is the meeting from Newbury viewed over and hopefully winners appearing and I hope this has been helpful to readers and look forward to reading your views on these selections and others.

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Re: Horse racing Discussion and information Saturday 28th October

Postby The Market Man » Sat Oct 28, 2017 12:18 pm

Racing Post Trophy - Saxon Warrior. It might not have been the greatest renewal of the Beresford Stakes but the 4th and 5th have won since and there's something about the manner in which SW lengthened his stride in the the straight. Lovely head carriage, uncomplicated horse and Doncaster should suit. If Heffernan is not under stable orders then he might attempt to stretch this from the front because there are a few others who won't stay a strongly run mile at this point in their careers.
Fascinated to see how Chilean runs. His sire won here and he's improving quickly.


Cheltenham
An interesting days racing ahead. I think there's more to come from Robinsfirth, a lightly raced 8yr old, on his first start of the season in the opener.
Lots of pace on in the 2.35 even though only 4 line up and Bedrock appears to be the stronger stayer, though i won't be involved at those odds
Le Prezien is another making his reappearance in the 3.10 and whilst he might be upped in trip later in the season, 2 miles should be ideal when he's still fresh. Foxtail Hill should set a good pace to aim at.

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