Horse racing Discussion and information -Friday 27th October

meoldmate
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Horse racing Discussion and information -Friday 27th October

Postby meoldmate » Thu Oct 26, 2017 5:16 pm

NEWBURY 1.10 - 5.10 Going Soft

DONCASTER 1.20 - 5.20 Going Good

CHELTENHAM 2.00 - 5.30 Going Good

DUNDALK 5.25 - 9.00 Going Standard

WOLVERHAMPTON 5.45 - 9.15 Going Standard

Can SCEAU ROYAL stamp his authority as a leading novice, or is there something else lurking around, 2.35 Cheltenham.

Here is one to figure with at very large odds RUACANA bred in the pink and use to be trained by John Ferguson and owned by Bloomfields. Could this one spring a surprise if the ground remains on the good side. 3.10 Cheltenham

Newbury 1.10 could see Roger Charlton starting the meeting off with a big run from his Chestnut gelding BLUE MIST

Newbury 2.50 could be seeing Mrs Amanda Perrett LIGHTENING DANCE lighting up the fourth race as I believe her runners are starting to find there feet again

Newbury 5.10 the lucky last and an Apprentice race can the top weight deliver in the shape of AYR OF ELEGANCE, she looks to be in form.

Doncaster 2.25 BREATH CAUGHT is this one the lay of the day or is a good favourite to have!!!

Doncaster 3.35 a big handicap over six furlongs can OUTBACK TRAVELLER weigh in, with first place position or HYPERFOCUS is focus to deliver.

The last at Doncaster amateur's on show and no better one to have on your side than Miss Sarah Brotherton HARD TOFFEE, get your teeth into this one and chew it over.

There are several races to look over and love to read your views on these and others that could be a head of the handicap or inform and even a selection that you think will not get beat heat, come on folks get delving into the form and gives your vibes.

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Re: Horse racing Discussion and information -Friday 27th October

Postby Robmull » Thu Oct 26, 2017 8:31 pm

The Novice Chase at Cheltenham (2.35) looks to be a strong race and SCEAU ROYAL will be difficult to beat based on his hurdle rating of 154, if building on his recent debut win over fences.

However, he has raced 15 times over hurdles despite being only 5 years old, which is more experience over the smaller obstacles than most top ranking chasers in recent times.

Whilst his proven fitness and previous chasing experience may prove decisive in this race, I believe that he may end up just below top class over fences in the end, whereas MOVEWITHTHETIMES may prove to be the real chasing star in the future.

His profile as a 6 year old with just 4 hurdle starts culminating in a near miss in the Betfair Hurdle when runner up to Ballyandy which secured him a hurdle rating of 146, is more in keeping with a future top chaser.

This is not a race in which I would have a wager, but it will be worth watching and whatever the outcome, it will be fascinating to monitor how SCEAU ROYAL and MOVEWITHTHETIMES progress over this season and beyond.

Finally, I would like to wish everyone all the best with their selections and hopefully we can find some good winners on this thread today.

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Re: Horse racing Discussion and information -Friday 27th October

Postby Micko70 » Thu Oct 26, 2017 8:34 pm

I have written a race by race guide to Cheltenhams Showcase meeting, with a look at every race, Fridays races have been finalised and they have also came up with a placepot, basically, if every race has at least 1 selection i will look at doing a placepot.

Fridays races and placepot selections can be found by clicking HERE

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Re: Horse racing Discussion and information -Friday 27th October

Postby Robmull » Fri Oct 27, 2017 10:21 am

Interesting read Micko.

I notice that amongst your selection are a couple of Charlie Longsdon trained runners and whilst I believe that he is a very talented trainer, his record of 3 winners from 75 runners during recent seasons is woeful.

Would that stat put you off backing his runners at Cheltenham?

All the best.

Rob.

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Re: Horse racing Discussion and information -Friday 27th October

Postby meoldmate » Fri Oct 27, 2017 1:44 pm

Harry Skelton team must be well worth the following, I do not know what the stats are for following this stable but everything he seems to run, are in the thick of the action and producing the goods.

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Re: Horse racing Discussion and information -Friday 27th October

Postby buchanski » Fri Oct 27, 2017 3:28 pm

Does anyone know if there an easy way to filter out all the £100k+ handicaps throughout the season on the racing post or on some other website?

I have it in my head that the Easterbys either Mick or Tim seem to land a few throughout the season at decent odds but don't know where to start.

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Re: Horse racing Discussion and information -Friday 27th October

Postby Robmull » Fri Oct 27, 2017 3:44 pm

Harry Skelton team must be well worth the following, I do not know what the stats are for following this stable but everything he seems to run, are in the thick of the action and producing the goods.

Hi meoldmate,

Unfortunately, the vast majority of the stable’s runners are overbet, as shown in the following stats:

Last 4 + current season - 406 wins/2110 runners: SR 19%: Loss of 527.51: ROI 75.00p/£

Current season only - 83 wins/330 runners: SR 25%: Loss of 29.06: ROI 91.19p/£

Even with an improved strike rate so far this season punters following the stable blindly would have lost just over 9 pence in the £.

In fact if is very difficult to find a winning edge based on the stats that I have to hand, but 2 that may be worth considering are:

Novice Chases - 56 wins/213 runners: SR 26%: Profit 23.46: ROI 111.10p/£

It may also be worth checking his runners next weekend at Wetherby - 20 wins/60 runners: SR 33%: Profit 14.16: ROI 123.60p/£.

All the best.

Rob.

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Re: Horse racing Discussion and information -Friday 27th October

Postby meoldmate » Fri Oct 27, 2017 5:47 pm

Rob mate you are simply the best, a big thank you for answering my inquiry, as every time I watch a race and he has a runner, Harry Skelton collects, possibly just possibly, his margin of profit is greater when I watch a race with his stable runner winning and missing all the ones he loses, pure coincidence of course.

Since you highlighted Wetherby, I be having a look.

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Re: Horse racing Discussion and information -Friday 27th October

Postby Shrews » Fri Oct 27, 2017 7:50 pm

Does anyone know if there an easy way to filter out all the £100k+ handicaps throughout the season on the racing post or on some other website?

I have it in my head that the Easterbys either Mick or Tim seem to land a few throughout the season at decent odds but don't know where to start.
Not sure, but I doubt it.

I put Group 1 - Class 2 races at Class 1 and Class 2 tracks into the generator on Flatstats, assuming they were most likely to be over £100k in prize money and both resulted in heavy losses for both the Easterby's

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