Horse racing Discussion and information -Wednesday 25th October

meoldmate
Legend
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 19981
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 11:00 pm
Location: Fife

Horse racing Discussion and information -Wednesday 25th October

Postby meoldmate » Tue Oct 24, 2017 5:48 pm

NEWMARKET 1.15 -5.15 Going Good

WORCESTER 1.35 - 5.40 Going Good

NAVAN 1.50 - 5.20 Going Heavy

SEDGEFIELD 2.00 - 4.45 Going Good

KEMPTON 5.50 - 9.20 Going Standard

misterjohn
Triple Crown Winner
Tips
Posts: 1078
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 12:02 pm

Re: Horse racing Discussion and information -Wednesday 25th October

Postby misterjohn » Wed Oct 25, 2017 10:33 am

Human Nature 2020 Kempton 20/1 Seems way over priced must of had problems last year it only run once it has won off 90 on turf this one over c/d in this grade back in July off 80 when Milly claimed 3lb it ony got beat 2lths at Epsom two races back i dont think the ground helped so that run may off been better than it looked Human was tried in a class 3 last time out over this c/d when trying to make almost all the running and seemed to fade over the last final furlong when running 9th only 1/2lth behind the 8th who had won over c/d off 84 maybe the class 3 was a step to far back into a class 4 today its two pound better off today than its c/d win as the jockey caims 7lb today and maybe it can make all and hold on back in this class

ToofanExpress
Classic Winner
Tips
Posts: 552
Joined: Thu Oct 23, 2014 11:00 pm

Re: Horse racing Discussion and information -Wednesday 25th October

Postby ToofanExpress » Wed Oct 25, 2017 11:30 am

Tried doing a tissue for the 1:15 in Newmarket. Following is how it looks like.

Horse My tissue Market Odds
Asheena 0 50/1
Astroblaze 13/1 100/1
Carolyns Voice 13/1 33/1
Colourfield (IRE) 13/1 14/1
Gemini 13/1 15/2
Goldfox Girl 0 33/1
High Seas (IRE) 4/1 4/1
Lady Al Thumama 13/1 11/4
Pretty Pearl 11/2 100/1
Queen Of Dreams (IRE) 20/1 20/1
River Rule 9/1 100/1
Wild Impala (FR) 11/2 2/1

I have highlighted the ones that give value based on my analysis. The system recommends 5 points on High seas and 1 point each on EW on Pretty pearl and River rule. :win: This is purely based on odds composition.

ToofanExpress
Classic Winner
Tips
Posts: 552
Joined: Thu Oct 23, 2014 11:00 pm

Re: Horse racing Discussion and information -Wednesday 25th October

Postby ToofanExpress » Wed Oct 25, 2017 12:39 pm

For 1:45 race.

Horse Tissue pricing Market odds
Canimar 9/1 22/1
Dance On The Day (IRE) 11/2 16/1

La Diva 9/1 9/4
Left Alone 5/2 4/5
Rhigolter Rose (IRE) 9/1 16/1
Timpani (IRE) 3/1 12/1


Left alone and La diva are looking too short to look into based on this. Left alone might be a class of its own and James doyle may be looking to build on teh 100th win he scored yesterday. Dance on the day looks good on paper and if I ever did a win bet, then it will be on it.. There is one horse who I think seriously undervalued here is Forward thinker. At odds of 20/1, a good EW bet considering David Simcock places 1 in 4 horses making the first run.

ToofanExpress
Classic Winner
Tips
Posts: 552
Joined: Thu Oct 23, 2014 11:00 pm

Re: Horse racing Discussion and information -Wednesday 25th October

Postby ToofanExpress » Wed Oct 25, 2017 1:03 pm

Smugglers top improved steadily over four races and a firm AW surface seemed to suit him and hence the rowley surface should suit. Was out of depth in a class 4 debut in Doncaster, but showed intention from the trainer.

Since then the race has produced a winner in Redcar, albeit on a lower class. The stallion has produced horses in the over 80s mark and a number of wins in Newmarket as well. But its a big field, anythign can happen. :win:

misterjohn
Triple Crown Winner
Tips
Posts: 1078
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 12:02 pm

Re: Horse racing Discussion and information -Wednesday 25th October

Postby misterjohn » Wed Oct 25, 2017 3:32 pm

Reveleon 1750 Kemp 10/1 e/w based on trainer stats and jockey stats half brother to Desert Dream and Dubka jockey is 1 from 2 for owner this last year and 6 from 17 ever trainer is 37% win/place with 2yos over the last year

Magojiro 1820 Kemp 12/1 e/w This is well bred and gets the blinkers on so could be a bit of a dodgy one but the owner does well here 30% win strike rate and 43% win/place and trainer is 45% win/place with owners horses owner is 37% win/place with 2yos

misterjohn
Triple Crown Winner
Tips
Posts: 1078
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 12:02 pm

Re: Horse racing Discussion and information -Wednesday 25th October

Postby misterjohn » Wed Oct 25, 2017 4:04 pm

Going to play one in the 1720 Navan Ringside Humour 25/1 e/w This ran 2nd in this race in 2015 its had one run on heavy ground that was last year when running second off 94 this is turned out quite quickly after running 10 days ago this has a fair record when running with in 10 days 7 7 12 1 2 3 1 1 7 7 2 1 8 2 1 This started this year on turf off 94 when beat 2lths on 86 today the trainer has won this for the last two years and in 2015 when this was second the winner had run 10 days before in fact out of the last 8 runnings of this race four of the winners had run between 10day and less prior maybe a long shot but looks worth a punt also owned by the trainers good lady

ToofanExpress
Classic Winner
Tips
Posts: 552
Joined: Thu Oct 23, 2014 11:00 pm

Re: Horse racing Discussion and information -Wednesday 25th October

Postby ToofanExpress » Wed Oct 25, 2017 5:01 pm

For the 6.20 at Kempton.

Horse My tissue Market odds
Dazzle Gold (USA) 4/1 5/2
Maaward (IRE) 7/1 6/1
Magojiro (USA) 12/1 10/1
Parisian (IRE) 3/1 6/1
Tenedos 12/1 9/1
Urbino 9/1 10/1
Blanchefleur (IRE) 11/2 11/4
:win:

misterjohn
Triple Crown Winner
Tips
Posts: 1078
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 12:02 pm

Re: Horse racing Discussion and information -Wednesday 25th October

Postby misterjohn » Wed Oct 25, 2017 5:45 pm

The 1850 kempton looks wide open for a handicap with a few decent priced horses who have a chance
Chetan 33/1
Lucymai 16/1
Mutineer 28/1
All look e/w bets with a combi fc and tc which could be massive

Shrews
Triple Crown Winner
Tips
Posts: 1765
Joined: Tue Dec 12, 2006 12:00 am

Re: Horse racing Discussion and information -Wednesday 25th October

Postby Shrews » Wed Oct 25, 2017 7:38 pm

A nice place in the last, but missed getting it into an e/w Patent so settled for the double of:

8.50 - Stragar - a mark of 45 looks low and is based on runs over further than this. He'll need to be a 50+ horse to be competitive versus a few 54+ rated in a level stakes classified stakes, but there's a good chance he is over this 7f.

9.30 - McDelta - has a CD place to his name back in March (beaten 2l) and is 8lb lower tonight. Decent enough draw.

ToofanExpress
Classic Winner
Tips
Posts: 552
Joined: Thu Oct 23, 2014 11:00 pm

Re: Horse racing Discussion and information -Wednesday 25th October

Postby ToofanExpress » Wed Oct 25, 2017 8:13 pm

Last one for the day.

Horse My tissue Market odds
The Juggler 7/2 3/1
Pershing 17/1 7/1
Storm Runner (IRE) 17/1 25/1
Saga Sprint (IRE) 23/1 33/1
Midnight Mood 36/1 9/1
Raashdy (IRE) 9/2 3/1
Desert Song 17/1 25/1
Exspectation (IRE) 11/1 66/1
Spiritofedinburgh (IRE) 11/1 11/1
Fire Whirl 7/2 20/1

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users