Horse racing Discussion and information -Tuesday 24th October

meoldmate
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Horse racing Discussion and information -Tuesday 24th October

Postby meoldmate » Mon Oct 23, 2017 4:42 pm

YARMOUTH 1,30 - 5.00 Good to Soft

NEWCASTLE 1.40 - 5.10 Standard going

FAIRYHOUSE 1.45 - 5.15 Soft to Heavy

EXETER 2.20 - 5.20 Soft

KEMPTON 5.45 - 9.15 Standard going.

Five meetings and Exeter the only jumps meeting and the 3.20 being the main race of the meeting with £14,000 prize money on offer and a big field of sixteen but this will end up being less for three places but nowadays, many bookies still apply a fourth place. THIS IS THE ONE A DAY RACE.
Any thoughts on this race and other meetings, springing the thread with winners.

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Re: Horse racing Discussion and information -Tuesday 24th October

Postby meoldmate » Mon Oct 23, 2017 5:45 pm

Yarmouth card is not a bad one but does have fields that warrant a good look at and a possible well handicapped horse could be figuring and I am hoping to highlight that one in the 4.30 and this is AL'S MEMORY 16/1 price tag and has Fran Berry in the plate after Katherine Glenister rode into fifth place at Salisbury behind The Groove.
This eight year old has only nine stone on his back and racing off a mark of 58 and this is his lowest mark ever, pointing out David Evans could have a well handicapped horse on his hands, he has been dropped another four pounds from his last two outings and looking how his form works out from last year, he raced twice and then won and the plan could be on the cards once again, then again he was fit from all weather racing through the winter.
In over 41 races on grass, this is his first visit to Yarmouth and a big run could be seen at generous odds.

Newcastle 4.10 race over six furlongs looks an exciting one to be involved with several inform horses appearing here.
The one that has caught the eye with the ratings is Paul Midgley four year old START TIME. He is lightly raced and the handicapper has relented his mark to 77, with his highest mark being 95 this is some drop and his first run on the all weather and could be well worth a look in this field at 9/1
Top jockey Paul Mulrennan takes the ride and could be getting the best out of this one.
This one use to be trained by Saeed bin Suroor and owned by Godolphin, has good breeding and being a cast off from this company still warrants respect.

Kempton 6.15 could be seeing an ex Mark Johnston trained horse being the centre of attraction with FREIGHT TRAIN now trained by Adrian Wintle.
This five year old ratings have now entered the realms of the fifties with a mark of 54, his trainer has pulled him from three previous races where he would of raced off this mark and if holding this declaration he could be a big danger to all.
He has been dropped six pounds from his last race but more from others and if getting to the front, which he should , he will take some catching.

There are three for today's viewing, hopefully we can knock up a winner or two and hopefully members can voice some reasoning to why they will or will not win.

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Re: Horse racing Discussion and information -Tuesday 24th October

Postby Robmull » Mon Oct 23, 2017 7:52 pm

Hi meoldmate,

Your thoughts regarding FREIGHT TRAIN (6.15 Kempton) are interesting.

For the record, he has raced over this course and distance on 5 occasions and has yet to beat a single rival.

I fully appreciate that this is a very modest class 6 handicap and his official rating is down to 54, which is 16 lbs lower than he is last winning mark, but has been beaten 162.5 lengths in his last 5 starts in class 4 and 5 events on the all weather.

He hasn’t raced for 202 days, but his form on seasonal debuts reads 6 of 10, 6 of 8 and 5 of 6, so doesn’t have a great record fresh.

A further point worth considering is that he is a notorious weak finisher.

It is also interesting to note that he has been withdrawn prior to the race on 3 occasions when due to line up in a class 6 race - I wonder why :?

To be honest, I can’t understand how he is best priced at 5/1 (as low as 7/2 with some bookmakers) based on the above information and wouldn’t be tempted to back him if he was offered at 33/1.

Have I missed something :?

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Re: Horse racing Discussion and information -Tuesday 24th October

Postby meoldmate » Mon Oct 23, 2017 9:20 pm

Sorry Rob for not getting back quicker about FREIGHT TRAIN, you have hit most angles about this one performances on the race track and highlighted his lack of acceleration in at the finish.
You had me looking too and I have to agree 100% so what are we missing, the answer possibly being the rest of the field. Only two have raced off marks in the seventies I can see Tarseekh at Windsor and was a 66/1 in a class five and finished in eighth place and Living Leader who won off 71 at Wolverhampton in 2015 but he has raced off marks around these figures numerous times but after 2015 he has never reached those heights anymore.

FREIGHT TRAIN looks to have a non runner clause in his contract the times he has been taken out.

My slight concern with ex Mark Johnston horses, I just wonder if they are burnt out with all the racing they do, this one in away is lightly raced with twenty six runs and when looking at his runs with all weather he has never been favourite more the outsider and on three occasions the right outsider with treble figures for odds.

A race of this nature surely should be within his grasp, I know horses can go right off the boil and under perform.

I am now thinking, is he now becoming an also ran and dropping into this level of class to be a bookie benefit horse and there are many of those about, as you would know, as like me, we have had our fingers burnt many a time.

I notice with prices the magic sign go 7/2 with brother in arms Corals at 100/30 when Ladbrokes are short, they are happy not to take the bet.

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Re: Horse racing Discussion and information -Tuesday 24th October

Postby meoldmate » Mon Oct 23, 2017 9:26 pm

Looking at this race again Rob it is a poor field and I just had a look at your value checker to see if this race appeared in your Lucky 15 set up but you have not placed anything up for tomorrow.


When this all weather first started, I treated all these runners as also ran's and back markers in competitive turf races and would only win a seller but times have changed since then and poor races like these have given many members on here from past a good return.
Possibly FREIGHT TRAIN could justify favouritism and run a big race.

TARSEEKH was well backed last time out and finished second here, are the pennies that were lost this day only borrowed and with him up with the pace along with Freight Train, the pace could be strong and with both being weak finishers is there a stronger stayer lurking around!

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Re: Horse racing Discussion and information -Tuesday 24th October

Postby misterjohn » Tue Oct 24, 2017 6:52 am

Kenny The Captain 1610 Newc 12/1 e/w
First spin on the a.w since November 2016 when winning a class 3 over c/d off 85 its only two other runs over this c/d have been 2nd and 3rd this run out a winner last month at Thirsk off 73 and seemed to win with a bit in hand Kenny then went close in a class 3 the winner got raised 4lb and went close off 77 the 3rd has won its last two the latest off 79 seven of Kenny,s nine wins have been around this time of the year it had a run over 7f at York last time out and drops back in trip today the two other times this run at York it went close next time out so i feel a big run will be on the cards today

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Re: Horse racing Discussion and information -Tuesday 24th October

Postby Robmull » Tue Oct 24, 2017 7:51 am

Fully agree that FREIGHT TRAIN’s rivals are a mediocre bunch, but their recent form is in many cases superior to anything that your selection has produced in both his most recent races and during his all weather career to date.

I wonder if his most recent poor efforts were due to some physical problem, which may have been rectified during his 202 day absence, an undisclosed wind operation would make sense, bearing in mind that he was a weak finisher, but I guess we will not know until after he has raced this evening.

Interesting that he has drifted in the betting and is now offered at best odds of 6/1 with the bookmakers and 17/2 on Betfair Exchange - perhaps a fourth withdrawal is on the cards :?

He has certainly enlivened what was a fairly mundane day’s racing.

12.35 update: Odds continue to drift, now best priced at 11/1 with a couple of bookmakers and just over 14/1 on Betfair Exchange.

5.25 update: Odds continue to drift, now best priced at 14/1 with a couple of bookmakers and just over 15/1 on Betfair Exchange.
Last edited by Robmull on Tue Oct 24, 2017 4:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Horse racing Discussion and information -Tuesday 24th October

Postby Mogweister » Tue Oct 24, 2017 12:02 pm

Hi MoM, been looking through the card at Newcastle, and think Keith Dalgleish has two overpriced runners. His horses always seem pretty competitive at this track, and both horses have positive Jockey bookings.

In the 2:40,Lat Hawill, 22/1 drops into class 3 company, and Paul Mulrennan takes the ride, it has finished runner up albeit over shorter distances and on turf on the last 3 occasions it has run in this class. It steps up in distance today, but the breeding suggests this could suit this horse, and the strong Jockey booking suggests the trainer must think it has a chance.

In the 2:40 Spark of war 33/1, showed some improvement in its last race over a mile, in this class of race (4). It was challenging for the lead 1f out and both its races on turf have been in testing conditions on heavy going. If it can reproduce a similar run today over the shorter distance, then this horse could at least make the frame come the end, and with the booking of top jockey Graham Lee, Then again Keith Dalgleish must think this horse has a chance.

I'm going to have a small wager on two Each Way singles and a double on the above horses.

Good luck today everyone with your selections. :hope:

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Re: Horse racing Discussion and information -Tuesday 24th October

Postby Crofty11 » Tue Oct 24, 2017 1:25 pm

One for me today is captain Pugwash in the 4.00 at Yarmouth 7/1 ish

it is a maiden but has run ok in class 5 races , he was staying on at the end of his last race over a mile in a class 5, now class 6 and over 1 mile 2

Jamie Spencer is on board for the first time, and i am hoping that he can switch this horse off and bring it with a late run.

There was an interesting conversation about Jamie on the thread about Jockey choice , and the stats were posted by Mantistoboggin,

'There's a remarkable dip in his form when it comes to long distance races compared with sprints and middle distance, for example since 2016 he has a consistent strike rate of between 17.1 - 17.4% for sprint and middle, but 11.6% when it's long distance. His strike rate gets better the lower the class of the race. He doesn't appear to have any bias for direction of course but is weaker on uphill.'

I took heart from 'his strike rate gets better in lower class races" and yarmouth is a flat track...

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Re: Horse racing Discussion and information -Tuesday 24th October

Postby meoldmate » Tue Oct 24, 2017 3:07 pm

Yarmouth card is not a bad one but does have fields that warrant a good look at and a possible well handicapped horse could be figuring and I am hoping to highlight that one in the 4.30 and this is AL'S MEMORY 16/1 price tag and has Fran Berry in the plate after Katherine Glenister rode into fifth place at Salisbury behind The Groove.
This eight year old has only nine stone on his back and racing off a mark of 58 and this is his lowest mark ever, pointing out David Evans could have a well handicapped horse on his hands, he has been dropped another four pounds from his last two outings and looking how his form works out from last year, he raced twice and then won and the plan could be on the cards once again, then again he was fit from all weather racing through the winter.
In over 41 races on grass, this is his first visit to Yarmouth and a big run could be seen at generous odds.
NON RUNNER
Newcastle 4.10 race over six furlongs looks an exciting one to be involved with several inform horses appearing here.
The one that has caught the eye with the ratings is Paul Midgley four year old START TIME. He is lightly raced and the handicapper has relented his mark to 77, with his highest mark being 95 this is some drop and his first run on the all weather and could be well worth a look in this field at 9/1
Top jockey Paul Mulrennan takes the ride and could be getting the best out of this one.
This one use to be trained by Saeed bin Suroor and owned by Godolphin, has good breeding and being a cast off from this company still warrants respect.
What has happen to this one now at 33/1 has he lost a leg or something, was around 7/1 yesterday, fingers cross, he runs a very good race and give me a nice return.

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Re: Horse racing Discussion and information -Tuesday 24th October

Postby meoldmate » Tue Oct 24, 2017 3:18 pm

misterjohn how unlucky was you, I thought you may have achieved a dead heat, at least yours ran to the line, my selection ran to the two furlong from home marker, then dropped out.

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Re: Horse racing Discussion and information -Tuesday 24th October

Postby misterjohn » Tue Oct 24, 2017 3:29 pm

oh well meoldmate i nose i was wrong but was on the right track good luck i have two big priced runners tonight i will put up later

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