Horse Racing Discussion and Information - Saturday 21st October

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Horse Racing Discussion and Information - Saturday 21st October

Postby Zipster » Fri Oct 20, 2017 7:38 pm

A great days racing ahead with Champions Day at Ascot and don’t forget that OLBG is offering 2 x £10 cash prizes, one for the Champions Sprint Stakes (2pm) and the other for the Qipco Champions Stakes (3.50pm) for excellent comments. As well as Ascot we have racing from Catterick, Fairyhouse, Ffos Las, Market Rasen, Stratford and Wolverhampton!

Looking at Ascot the offspring of Scat Daddy have a great record with 8 winners from just 15 runners, that is a 53% strike rate for a LSP of +41, tomorrow we have CARAVAGGIO out in the 2.00. Michael Bell has a good record in handicaps at Catterick with 8 winners from 17 runners, a 47% strike rate for a LSP of +29, he sends out RAYS THE MONEY in the 4.05. Cape Cross offspring have won 7 from their 15 runs at Market Rasen which is a 47% strike rate for a LSP of +24, we have SUTOOR runner in the 5.05. Adrian Heskin has a 44% strike rate at Stratford with 7 winners from 16 rides and a LSP of +16, he has three rides with MISS NIGHT OWL (2.30), BROOM TIP (4.45) and SUMMERVILLE BOY (5.15). Warren Greatrex has a 45% strike rate in non-handicaps at Stratford from 42 runners producing 19 winners and a LSP of +22, he only sends out one runner which actually falls under this factor and they is THE BLACK SQUIRREL (4.45). John Gosden and Nicky Mackay team up for a 43% strike rate at Wolverhampton in non-handicaps with 10 winners from 23 runners and they team up with WISSAHICKON (7.15).

**All stats based on last 5 years
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Re: Horse Racing Discussion and Information - Saturday 21st October

Postby Pieros » Fri Oct 20, 2017 9:12 pm

Ascot has a fantastic card today, maybe the best of the whole season so I’ll tell you my opinion about these races starting with the Long Distance where last year winner Sheikhzayedroad has not been the same this season but has place claims at juicy odds. Big Orange and Stradivarius are not going to be happy about the soft conditions (I was ready to back Gosden’s 3 year-old on good ground) and Order Of St George has a huge chance on his favourite ground, I expect him to be odds on tomorrow. The one that looked clearly improving by every run was Desert Skyline and at double figures odds he seems a nice Each Way proposition. I’m not a fan of Dartmouth but he loves this track and testing ground, has been supplemented and Jim Crowley on board to give it a go, another one to keep an eye on at 16/1.
The Champions Sprint looks another impossible puzzle: I’ve seen that O’Brien has entered a few extra horses in order to give a tough time to front runner Harry Angel and pick up the pieces late with Caravaggio but I’m not sure Adam Kirby will fall into the Irish trap. Too much quality in here to make a confident call as you can‘t really dismiss course specialists Tin The Man, Tasleet and Librisa Breeze idem; Quiet Reflection has also a clear chance back to this course and current conditions, she has been lightly campaigned and that’s what you need at this time of the year, a fresh filly.
That’s the perfect connection for me for the Fillies and Mares stakes where last year winner Journey was lightly raced all season and needed the run last time out at Chantilly when beaten by current favourite Bateel : there is nothing between the two but Gosden’s filly will come on plenty with that run under her belt and loves this course, she must go close. Hydrangea has had some hard races but of course you can’t dismiss Irish boss O’Brien that runs as well the 50/1 outsider Wild Irish Rose that has plenty to find on official ratings with the best but has a nice pedigree for staying distances. If you are looking for an Each Way bet at big odds Left Hand really impressed me last time out at Chantilly as she finished off very well in a blanket finish in the Prix De L'Opera at Arc Day.
The Queen Elizabeth II Stakes looks to be one of the best races all year class-wise with course and distance winner Ribchester the one to beat but this field is so competitive that I wouldn’t be surprised if even an outsider should win it. Churchill looked out of sort in his last three races and Beat The Bank has gradually improved into a Group horse looking still unexposed with only six career runs. Persuasive is clearly a player as course and distance winner was unlucky last twice and I understand Frankie’s pick in favour of Al Wukair. Thunder Snow (16/1) is clearly classy and was hampered in his last narrow defeat at Deauville but if you look for even bigger odds Lightening Spear looks a shade overpriced at 25/1 as he runs often well at this straight course especially with plenty of juice in the ground.
I ve heard a lot of comments this week about Crackman tackling a too short distance in the Champions Stakes but with the soft ground making it an extra test of stamina he should be fine: I think he’s the most exciting British prospect for the 2018 campaign and I hope he’ll win showing his speed and class. I’m a huge Highland Reel fan and he loves it here over this course and distance but I’m afraid the ground won’t help him; Barney Roy has been ridden badly last time by Doyle and if he handles the conditions he’d be right there in the mix. Brametot run a great race in defeat finishing a creditable 5th in the Arc and if this race does not come too soon he has his Each Way claims, same story for improving Poet’s Word.
This flat season will sadly enough close down with the competitive Baltimore Handicap with 20 horses in 11lbs, amazing!!! : you clearly must be lucky to be drawn at the right side of the track as these races have always had a strong bias. I was very curious to see Speculative Bid back on track two weeks ago at this course after more than two years lay off and he did very well just running out of gas in the last furlong: he wasn’t knocked about by Sean Levey and I like to think trainer Elsworth has targeted him for this contest. He won the Victoria Cup in here a few seasons ago and he’s flexible ground wise, with Jim Crowley booked for the job I really expect him to be in the mix at current odds of 16/1. One that is drawn more towards the middle is Oh This Is Us that went back down to a more realistic mark but he has contested some very competitive Group races this season and he’s now back into handicaps; also here a very eye-catching booking in Ryan Moore and surely interesting at 20/1.
Best of luck to everybody and enjoy!!

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Re: Horse Racing Discussion and Information - Saturday 21st October

Postby Casino55 » Sat Oct 21, 2017 9:01 am

Two great write ups and interesting reading many thanks and cheers,will certainly be using your info...just hope I pick the right ones👍👏

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Re: Horse Racing Discussion and Information - Saturday 21st October

Postby meoldmate » Sat Oct 21, 2017 12:31 pm

Ryan Moore made Order St George mind up and gave his mount a really brilliant ride as he did look beaten at one stage, one of the best rides I have seen for a long time

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Re: Horse Racing Discussion and Information - Saturday 21st October

Postby meoldmate » Sat Oct 21, 2017 1:24 pm

Think Adam Kirby got the tactics all wrong on Harry Angel with letting the horse have his head over two furlongs out, we may see a different jockey on this one next season. Cannot take anything away from the winner Librisa Breeze who has shown in past he is a very capable horse and stronger the pace the better.

Just seen a very good winner at Market Rasen with J J O'Neill charge Demon D'Aunou cost 130,000GBP and could be paying this sum back with interest to John P McManus, as this one looks a promising horse to follow this winter.

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Re: Horse Racing Discussion and Information - Saturday 21st October

Postby horage » Sat Oct 21, 2017 1:51 pm

i wrote this last week ryan moores a good jockey........ and he still is this week........... good old ryan moore............ :D :lol:

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Re: Horse Racing Discussion and Information - Saturday 21st October

Postby meoldmate » Sat Oct 21, 2017 2:05 pm

Churchill could have a very good say here but I think Ryan Moore could be coming off second best this time around with RIBCHESTER showing his class and his ability to act on this surface.

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Re: Horse Racing Discussion and Information - Saturday 21st October

Postby benucci » Sat Oct 21, 2017 2:20 pm

Ribchester is in my view one of those super horses and i expect a bold show. The loss of Harrys Angel makes the price sweet.
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Re: Horse Racing Discussion and Information - Saturday 21st October

Postby Casino55 » Sat Oct 21, 2017 2:42 pm

Agree with you meoldmate I thought he had no chance

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Re: Horse Racing Discussion and Information - Saturday 21st October

Postby Derbz87 » Sat Oct 21, 2017 2:59 pm

Damned if he did damned if he didn't really regarding Kirby - you've just seen with Ribchester what happens in this headwind and atrocious ground if left in front for too long. Toscanini didn't do him many favours as a pacemaker struggling to set a proper gallop in the ground which he hates and Buick faced a tricky dilenma with Ribchester because he was pretty keen too and had a bad draw relative to his pacemaker to negotiate.

Inevitable we were gonna get some funny old results today - end of the season, tacky ground, the bookies were tripping over each other offering the specials on the multiple shorties. Even though he got the job done you'd have to say Order Of St George even struggled in this ground given he beat Torcedor 9 lengths in the Irish St Leger this season.

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Re: Horse Racing Discussion and Information - Saturday 21st October

Postby meoldmate » Sat Oct 21, 2017 3:02 pm

I ve heard a lot of comments this week about Crackman tackling a too short distance in the Champions Stakes but with the soft ground making it an extra test of stamina he should be fine: I think he’s the most exciting British prospect for the 2018 campaign and I hope he’ll win showing his speed and class. I’m a huge Highland Reel fan and he loves it here over this course and distance but I’m afraid the ground won’t help him; Barney Roy has been ridden badly last time by Doyle and if he handles the conditions he’d be right there in the mix. Brametot run a great race in defeat finishing a creditable 5th in the Arc and if this race does not come too soon he has his Each Way claims, same story for improving Poet’s Word.
I agree with Pieros about Craftsman and I am expecting to see Aidan O'Brien to come good here but not with Ryan Moore charge HIGHLAND REEL but CLIFFS OF MOHER who looked unlucky in Ireland last time out and could be favourable with conditions.

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Re: Horse Racing Discussion and Information - Saturday 21st October

Postby meoldmate » Sat Oct 21, 2017 3:05 pm

Craftsman put that race to bed without any hassle, typical of me to look for a good price and not stay with a talented horse.

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