How important is the jockey in your selection process?

Robmull
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Re: How important is the jockey in your selection process?

Postby Robmull » Thu Sep 21, 2017 11:51 am

Interesting points raised regarding Jamie Spencer.

Although, as I mentioned earlier on this thread, I rarely take any notice of jockey bookings, I tend to have a different opinion of Jamie Spencer, as I personally believe that he is very gifted horseman.

He rides certain courses very well and has been profitable to follow at both Windsor and Yarmouth in recent years (has a strong book of rides at Yarmouth today) and often does well on the straight course at Ascot, when he is able to settle his mount at the rear and produce it for a late effort, which is a good tactic at a track where the last runner to be asked a question often wins the race.

I also believe that he is a good judge of pace from the front, albeit as with all jockeys a front running horse has to be good enough to win on his own merit.

As for Nina Carberry, it will be good to see her back in the saddle tonight at Ballinrobe and I agree that she is an excellent horsewoman and tactician, especially when riding inexperienced runners in NH Flat races and she probably has no equal when partnering horses in cross country chases.

However, the betting market is well attuned to her prowess, so it rare that her rides over value for punters, as indicated by the level stake losses that would accrue if all her rides were backed blindly.

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Re: How important is the jockey in your selection process?

Postby buchanski » Thu Sep 21, 2017 1:09 pm

My view is that a good jockey can rarely win you a race but a poor jockey can definitely lose you a race. If I see a claimer I know nothing about on a short price favourite I'd see that as a huge negative, especially over jumps.

What I look out for is jockey/trainer partnerships and certain jockeys are certain courses, as mentioned above with Spencer at Yarmouth/Ascot. Richard Kingscote at Haydock is another that springs to mind, he rides the course particularly well.

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Re: How important is the jockey in your selection process?

Postby mantistoboggan » Thu Sep 21, 2017 1:10 pm

My view is that a good jockey can rarely win you a race but a poor jockey can definitely lose you a race. If I see a claimer I know nothing about on a short price favourite I'd see that as a huge negative, especially over jumps.

What I look out for is jockey/trainer partnerships and certain jockeys are certain courses, as mentioned above with Spencer at Yarmouth/Ascot. Richard Kingscote at Haydock is another that springs to mind, he rides the course particularly well.
Franny Norton at Chester is another I'd put in to this bracket.

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Re: How important is the jockey in your selection process?

Postby Crofty11 » Thu Sep 21, 2017 3:22 pm

This thread got me musing about how jockeys attributes have changed since the 70's.

When i were a lad...one of the main attributes was 'strength in the finish' , basically using a whip that could cut into a horse and draw blood , they would belt the hell out of the poor beast , hopefully in some sort of a rhythm, that propelled the horse forward.. Piggott standing very tall in very short irons could certainly 'lift' one over the line. jockeys that were strong in the finish were in very high demand in those days and i suspect were the most successfull.

Thankfully the whips are harmless now and are used for balance, rhythm and trying to change a horses course.

Nowadays that 'strength' is not spoken of, of course the jockey must be physically fit enough to do the job and get the horse and rider to do their utmost from start to finsih.

Back in the day in the UK the thought of women Jockeys being an internal part of the sport was ridiculed due to said lack of strength, whilst at the same time women jockeys were racking up winners in their hundreds and thousands in America ( although still facing their own issues of discrimination).

I think the sport today is a much more tolerant and kinder place for all concerned, although clearly there is much to do still, as it seems to me women jockeys have really hard time.

I find it odd that we have superlative women riders in three day eventing, the current olympic team has 6 members 1 man and 5 women and only a small handful in our sport( though loads and loads of stable lassies )

just a bit of a muse about how life changes..but coming back to Spencer...I bet Harry Wragg got the same stick back in the 40's..he was the original Head Waiter

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Re: How important is the jockey in your selection process?

Postby PompeyJim » Thu Sep 21, 2017 3:52 pm

Does anyone feel the current crop of jockeys (flat or national hunt) compare favourably as to those say from earlier era's like the 80's or 90's ?

I started taking an interest in racing (when far too young) in the late 70's into the 80's and just feel the crop of jockeys riding back then like the flat boys Piggott, Carson, Eddery, Mercer, Cauthen, Swinburn, Fallon and the jump jockeys Scudamore, Francome, Jonjo, Dunwoody, Bradley (I've probably missed some not intentionally) would more than hold their own against those riding today or recently retired ?

The Piggott, Carson, Eddery era was fantastic...
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Re: How important is the jockey in your selection process?

Postby The Market Man » Thu Sep 21, 2017 7:52 pm

The much maligned Spencer is one I definitely avoid - he clearly has talent , but for whatever reason manages to enrage punters up and down the country - mainly in your day to day average races. The most criticism he receives (and rightly so imo) is holding horses up too long and surging too late. Is that poor jockeyship on his behalf as it seems to happen too regularly to be coincidence ? My main gripe with Spencers mounts are the vitriolic comments posted after he loses - punters know what he's like - do what I do and simply avoid him.
Simon Pearce was one I thought would kick on a few years back. He went out to the USA for a year or two to "fine tune" his ability but hasnt really kicked on since he returned.
Spencer is excellent from the front. Underrated, even.

However, I rarely hack his horses now when I know they’ll be held up. His ability at finding trouble in running is without parallel

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Re: How important is the jockey in your selection process?

Postby The Market Man » Thu Sep 21, 2017 7:57 pm

@pompeyjim :

I think Piggott, Eddery et al would have seemed less invincible if they were riding through the modern racing calendar

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Re: How important is the jockey in your selection process?

Postby Crofty11 » Fri Sep 22, 2017 7:21 am

I guess I am wrong about spencer from the front. this is very interesting if you can find the time and the strength to read it. One fact that emerges from the piece is that horses run on average 18lb on average below their best mark. ( I think)

https://onemilefourandten.com/2013/10/0 ... a-tell-us/

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Re: How important is the jockey in your selection process?

Postby Zipster » Fri Sep 22, 2017 12:39 pm

How important is the jockey? How important is the trainer? How important is the form?

I decided to take a different approach over the past 12 months and have to admit that a lot of my selections are made before I even look at a racecard let alone a jockey! As some of you may know I calculate my own ratings on each race if all the runners have made 3+ starts and then give myself qualifiers in each race, basically think of EW terms without the handicaps so 2-4 runners would give me 1 qualifier, 5-7 would give me 2, 8-15 would give me 3 and anything 16+ gives me 4 and this is based on declared runners, this has been running for several years now and approaching 63k races which have been rated, from those races 40% of the winners have come from within my qualifiers so I tend to not look any further!

I then can set up systems based on those qualifiers where I can filter through certain factors and set it up to what looks good and then each day I am giving the runners which pass my criteria and then I will still be selective, I hardly ever back them all especially if it is a new system, I tend to let it run a while so I can then look at the statistics for the runner based on the system results, this is where I get my selections from, there if are certain factors which have performed well for that system since I created it then depending on how good those numbers are, I shall back it and tip it.

As you can tell I have not looked at racecard to this point, I back 80% of them without even looking at the race card, the only time I do venture onto racing post is when I decide to also tip it on here so I can then look at form and look for a reasoning to support it in a tip, if there is no good reasoning then I will not tip it although I will still back it.

I know this sort of selection process will not sit well with some people on here but for me, my rating numbers are there to support it and the systems go very in-depth and even when I get selections I am still being very selective.

So the answer in short is that Jockeys have no bearing on my selection process!
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Re: How important is the jockey in your selection process?

Postby mantistoboggan » Fri Sep 22, 2017 3:16 pm

I've subscribed back to my stats account and so hopefully I can enlighten more on what I've said previously and seeing as he's the subject of discussion currently I'll highlight Jamie Spencer.

There's a remarkable dip in his form when it comes to long distance races compared with sprints and middle distance, for example since 2016 he has a consistent strike rate of between 17.1 - 17.4% for sprint and middle, but 11.6% when it's long distance. His strike rate gets better the lower the class of the race. He doesn't appear to have any bias for direction of course but is weaker on uphill.

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Re: How important is the jockey in your selection process?

Postby Shrews » Fri Sep 22, 2017 5:15 pm

Jockey ability/form is probably the only consideration that has an 'emotive' feel to it (trainer to a lesser degree). If your horse performs badly it's always the fault of the jockey if he doesn't win! If we have a few Jamie Spencer bad rides then it's: 'I'm never bloody backing Jamie Spencer again!'

We hardly ever say:

'I'm never bloody backing that horse on a flat, galloping track again!'
I'm never bloody backing that horse on good to soft again!'
I'm never bloody backing that horse following a 30 day lay-off again!'
I'm never bloody backing that horse off a mark of 50 again!'
I'm never bloody backing that horse in a Class 3 again!'

What sticks in our memories is a few bad rides, but they're hardly ever about the other factors, we have to root through the form to prick our memory banks on those.

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Re: How important is the jockey in your selection process?

Postby jaydubs » Fri Sep 22, 2017 6:00 pm

On the OLBG tables thread it states Zipster has 14 months consecutive profit....your selection methods cant really attract any criticism Andy with them figures...

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