American Horse Racing

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Re: American Horse Racing

Postby titans choice » Sun May 07, 2017 11:40 pm

A horse that might be worth keeping a eye on might be a 2 year old called Sir Valentine trained by Kristin Mulhall it has had 1 run out and it won that race on the 6/5/17 at the distance of 4 and a half furlongs and it won by a few lengths at Santa Anita but the thing that makes it interesting is it's breeding.
It comes from a horse called Popular who had 15 runs and won 2 with 1 2nd and 4 3rds winning 1 and placing in 1 at grade 3 level earning $155,845 so nothing special.
And Popular comes from a horse called Gone West who had 17 runs winning 6 with 4 2nds and 2 3rds earning $682,251 winning the Dwyer Stakes,Withers Stakes and the Gotham Stakes so it was a decant horse.
But the thing that makes this horse interesting and maybe worth keeping an eye on is that Gone West's Damshire is the Legandary Secretariat and i am not writing down everything it won as i would be here half the night.

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Re: American Horse Racing

Postby MPatUSRACING » Mon May 08, 2017 4:58 am

Hello Everyone,

I have worked in the industry now for 11 years almost and US Racing has been the center of my betting experience for the last 3 years at least.

Tim i have found what you are doing is true. Beating the prices is very good way of making a profit on US Racing but also a very quick way to be closed by almost every UK based bookmaker as they are hot on not wanting the business.

Saying that what was said about a lot of favorites win in US racing and someone saying about 33% win chance on favorites?

I don't really look at all these statistics where numbers are being calculated out of thin air, as there is no proof how far back those results actually go to get that figure. its a guide but from knowledge and following US Racing for the years i have been the FAV do win majority of races.

You would ideally want to get grips with form though if you can learn the real way to read the form and understand this then you could be in for making serious money. Numerous times bookmakers putting up prices which are not true reflection of a horse and real value in the bet. I.E i have backed on 365 or paddy's or skybet early at 16/1 and horse is winning at 5/1.

Same with FAV's being priced up early at 7/4 and should be 4/6.

if you really want a tip in this don't go overboard on your multi's to try win £2000 from £5, you come close but sometimes close is what gets you sucked into losing big.

Id suggest just sticking to maybe 4-fold multi's smaller margin of errors and still chance of winning big if you get the right prices.

Feel free to PM me on the board, i keep track of my own horse knowledge in US and i know a few people who have high knowledge. If you ever need clarity on selections which might be worth backing or any questions about it i'm happy to help.

Thought id share. :D

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Re: American Horse Racing

Postby misterjohn » Mon May 08, 2017 5:56 pm

Hello Everyone,

I have worked in the industry now for 11 years almost and US Racing has been the center of my betting experience for the last 3 years at least.

Tim i have found what you are doing is true. Beating the prices is very good way of making a profit on US Racing but also a very quick way to be closed by almost every UK based bookmaker as they are hot on not wanting the business.

Saying that what was said about a lot of favorites win in US racing and someone saying about 33% win chance on favorites?

I don't really look at all these statistics where numbers are being calculated out of thin air, as there is no proof how far back those results actually go to get that figure. its a guide but from knowledge and following US Racing for the years i have been the FAV do win majority of races.

You would ideally want to get grips with form though if you can learn the real way to read the form and understand this then you could be in for making serious money. Numerous times bookmakers putting up prices which are not true reflection of a horse and real value in the bet. I.E i have backed on 365 or paddy's or SkyBet> early at 16/1 and horse is winning at 5/1.

Same with FAV's being priced up early at 7/4 and should be 4/6.

if you really want a tip in this don't go overboard on your multi's to try win £2000 from £5, you come close but sometimes close is what gets you sucked into losing big.

Id suggest just sticking to maybe 4-fold multi's smaller margin of errors and still chance of winning big if you get the right prices.

Feel free to PM me on the board, i keep track of my own horse knowledge in US and i know a few people who have high knowledge. If you ever need clarity on selections which might be worth backing or any questions about it i'm happy to help.

Thought id share. :D
stats are not picked out of thin air and if you have been involved in usa racing for a long time check the stats they are long standing were in the usa are you based

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Re: American Horse Racing

Postby Jim Brown » Mon May 08, 2017 6:26 pm

Welcome to OLBG, MPatUSRACING :win:

Great first post, and we'd be keen to hear your input on any of the US races you want to cover. We had some great input from OLBG members for the Kentucky Derby and the thread for the Preakness is already up and posted :win:

Members can post their selections here on the thread, and for the benefit of all members it would be preferred to have you give your opinion on here too, rather than inviting people to message you. OLBG has a big following so we deny people that opinion and information if we do it by PM.

There's a LOT more US racing takes place than is seen on UK betting shop screens or TV there, so I imagine there's a lot of statistics that never get taken into account, simply because the races aren't included.

Some of our members have asked where are the best places to go for results and form. If you have any input on that, do let us know! :win:
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Re: American Horse Racing

Postby titans choice » Tue May 09, 2017 12:05 am

I might be wrong but as far as i can see no British or Irish trainer has ever won the Man Of War Stakes but going by Paddy Power and Betfair D.Weld currently have the favourite with Zhukova but i have not gone through the full card and form but i do know it has last years winner Wake Forest in the race and it comes in to this winning a grade 2 last time out.But Zhukova comes into this in good form also winning last time out and that was a class 1 race but it disappointed in the race before that and it beat US Army Ranger in the race before that.It has ran 9 times winning 6 and 5 of it's wins have been class 1 level so it is good.

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Re: American Horse Racing

Postby thegambler3700 » Wed May 10, 2017 3:54 pm

Just a question for those who follow american racing

Why is tomorrow night at Churchill Downs all maiden claimers and claiming races? Is there a reason for this :?

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Re: American Horse Racing

Postby Jim Brown » Wed May 10, 2017 4:14 pm

Just a question for those who follow american racing

Why is tomorrow night at Churchill Downs all maiden claimers and claiming races? Is there a reason for this :?
Around half of all races run in the USA are Claiming races, gambler3700, so it's not at all unusual. These are the 'daily fare' of normal horse racing in the US. Handicaps, as we know them as being the mainstay of UK racing, are not quite the same in the US.

In order of class, it goes:

Maiden
Maiden Claimer
Claimer
Allowance
Stakes
Graded Stakes


Handicaps will be usually either Stakes or Graded Stakes and pretty high class, like the major handicaps in the UK.
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Re: American Horse Racing

Postby titans choice » Wed May 10, 2017 9:48 pm

The Peter Pan Stakes is on this weekend and it does not have a good record of producing winners for the Belmont Stakes but it has had a few horses come from the Peter Pan
to place in it the record of how runners have done in both from 2000 stand at.
Peter Pan Belmont
2016 Governor Malibu 2nd 4th
2015 Made From Lucky won 6th
2014 Tonalist won won
Commissioner 2nd 2nd
2013 Freedom Child won 13th
2012 Street Life 3rd 4th
2011 Prime Cut 3rd 11th
2010 no Peter Pan
2009 Charitable Man won 6th
Brave Victory 3rd
2008 Ready's Echo 3rd 3rd dead heat
2007 no runners from Peter Pan entered
2006 Sunriver 1st 3rd
2005 Reverberate 2nd 10th
2004 Purge won 9th
Master David 3rd 7th
2003 Supervisor 3rd 5th
2002 Sunday Break won 3rd
2001 No runner from Peter Pan
2000 Postponed won 7th
Unshaded 2nd 3rd
Globalize 3rd 10th

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Re: American Horse Racing

Postby thegambler3700 » Tue May 16, 2017 3:29 pm

Now im not an expert on american racing however having watched it for the past few weeks i have noticed something. Ive noticed that if a jockey on a horse thats been backed into fav theyll do there best to win and try and lead from the front however if a horse starts starts well odds on the horse will come out near the back of the field then stay on late in the day getting beat. Now maybe its just me but is this the usual on a daily basis

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Re: American Horse Racing

Postby misterjohn » Tue May 16, 2017 4:58 pm

Now im not an expert on american racing however having watched it for the past few weeks i have noticed something. Ive noticed that if a jockey on a horse thats been backed into fav theyll do there best to win and try and lead from the front however if a horse starts starts well odds on the horse will come out near the back of the field then stay on late in the day getting beat. Now maybe its just me but is this the usual on a daily basis
just out of interest how any many races that fit that statement have you watched

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Re: American Horse Racing

Postby thegambler3700 » Tue May 16, 2017 5:54 pm

Now im not an expert on american racing however having watched it for the past few weeks i have noticed something. Ive noticed that if a jockey on a horse thats been backed into fav theyll do there best to win and try and lead from the front however if a horse starts starts well odds on the horse will come out near the back of the field then stay on late in the day getting beat. Now maybe its just me but is this the usual on a daily basis
just out of interest how any many races that fit that statement have you watched
going by the past week or so friday and saturday seemed to be the nights for the majority of the favs to go in. other nights ive just noticed the favs seem to come out slow or go wide and cant quite get there. Not sure how many american races are on atr per night but on last nights viewing id have said there may have been about 20 odds races that i noticed. There is a good few races per meeting so all favs cant win like in the Uk but some of the rides just look awful

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Re: American Horse Racing

Postby Jim Brown » Tue May 16, 2017 6:57 pm

It's an interesting observation, gambler3700. Might be something that would require a long-term study to see if there's anything to be gleaned from it. Pace does tend to be on the faster side in US racing. They don't do tactical races like jocks do in the UK. I probably doubt horses are missing the break on purpose because a) that would be a sever disadvantage because they set off fast, and b) it would indicate some misdeeds going on, and such are things these days with cameras etc., anyone doing that regularly would quickly be found out!

That's not to say that a horse well fancied by the stable, and ultimately who shortens up near the off, doesn't have a jockey on board who's been instructed to make sure he gets to the front quickly.
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