RaceCourse Guides - Please Help

jaydubs
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Postby jaydubs » Wed Jul 09, 2014 6:01 am

I only bet on the sprints.. so only watch them races

nors
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Postby nors » Wed Jul 09, 2014 8:54 am

Welshie, i watch replays but generally not in relation to the draw. I suspect there are tracks where the draw bias is very subtle and not so heavily publicised, the jockeys probably know. It is for us to find these out, we any everyone know about Chester, but i suspect there are some tracks which have less bias but a bias that does make a difference.

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Postby nors » Wed Jul 09, 2014 9:07 am

I had a thought, maybe if we come up with a 1 paragraph conclusion on each course, once we have the list and everyone is happy, this could be added to the opening daily Horse Racing discussion thread? So each day there is a draw conclusion for each track.

E.G
TURF:

Brighton > ATR Front runners track, with inward camber, horses coming off the pace struggle, lower numbers favoured over sprint distances, higher numbers favoured over long distances.
Pontefract > RUK
Roscommon (Ireland) > ATR
Uttoxeter > ATR

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Postby TDawgTipping » Wed Jul 09, 2014 9:18 am

@Welshie, I have tried to specialise in races between 5f and 1m2f, so up until a month ago I was watching every race at this distance on the turf from Class 4 upwards (and all maidens). Unfortunately I've fallen behind so at the moment I'm almost betting on instinct. I suggest you decide what your specialism would be (I suspect sprints by the way you have spoken) and watch as many of those races as you can just to understand how the race runs and the different things that can happen if a horse misses the break, has a good/bad draw, needs the run etc.

Also remember that draw bias can be there even when its not specifically a factor - if a horse has to cross from Stall 7 to go round a bend, he can be held 3 wide round a turn despite only being drawn in the middle of the stalls, or if he wants to lead from stall 5 but has to be ridden out of the stalls because there are 2 more prominent racing horses inside him that want to at least be near the pace he can uses a lot of energy to get there and get tired at the end of the race because of it.

If I was you I would also watch a few races at distances around your speciality so you can see if the bias/effect you have found is more pronounced, less pronounced or even exclusive to the sprints. This should help you contextualise your information and assess whether it is worthwhile or not.



@Nors, that's a great idea! Although I would probably "bold" the meetings name so it stands out a bit more in that situation.

Eg.
Brighton > ATR Front runners track, with inward camber, horses coming off the pace struggle, lower numbers favoured over sprint distances, higher numbers favoured over long distances

(Would also add suits course specialists/similar conformation to Epsom to the Brighton description if you want to go that detailed?

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Postby deswalker » Wed Jul 09, 2014 10:42 am

Its a great idea to start the days thread with a list of course attributes. I think we can afford to be a bit more accurate than general outline though? As much detail as possible would be my favoured approach.

For example, here's my assessment of Windsor nors...
Windsor:

Flat course, where ground rarely gets very firm due to close proximity to river. Long 3 1/2f run-in.

Sprint course 5f/6f with slight dogleg, usually no draw bias except when Good to Firm or better ground, when low draw favoured.

Races from 1m to 1m 3 1/2f on round course with very tight right hand bend, often leads to "stacking up" in middle of races.
How does that look?
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Postby TeddyT » Wed Jul 09, 2014 10:49 am

Good stuff guys.

On a similar note, I would love some sort of reference as to how stiff the fences are at each jump track? I'm assuming there must be stats out there somehwere as to how hard a track is to jump round?

The fences on the Mildmay course at Aintree always appear to take some jumping to me but perhaps we could reference the stiffness of the fences when outlining the course details?

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Postby Marshy » Wed Jul 09, 2014 11:42 am

Pontefract.
After going to many pontefract meetings I have noticed there is a quietly substantial draw bias. Not just over a sprint trip but over a mile or a mile 2f. On the mile start there is an instant bend which goes onto a long uphill straight into another bend. Very few horses move around the pack coming up the hill before the second bend, after the second bend its a 2 1/2 f uphill straight. Riders try and stay to the inside rail (very rarely do they spread past half of the width of the track. So with very few genuine opportunities to pass on a 1m race the draw bias is key. Sometimes overlooked in the prices of horses I feel. Horses drawn 1-4 who get cover going up the 4f hill and use as little energy obtaining a good field position seem to excel. Often the winner comes from just of the pace, on the inside rail coming round the corner. not from the rear of the pack having to make a move round the outside. Because jockeys seem to realise this position is key and if that\'s key then it makes the draw a quite substantial variable ..

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Postby Yorksred » Wed Jul 09, 2014 11:59 am

Hi, i use http://icard.888Sport.com . It has a lot of very useful information.
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nors
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Postby nors » Wed Jul 09, 2014 12:01 pm

If members work together on this and add their take on individual courses. It dosent matter if we say have 4 opinions on uttoxeter, the more we have the clearer the final info will be.

If members can add the course in Bold on this thread and then add their take on the bias, draw, fences etc on this thread.

If 1 member wants to volunteer to add all the details to an off site spreadsheet/document ?

At the end of the month we can see the data and either or/and post to an OLBG blog on the course bias so we have permanent reference + each day take the info and add to the individual daily threads.

Lets give it a month and set a finish date of 10th August 2014 and see where we are then?

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Postby deswalker » Wed Jul 09, 2014 1:15 pm

I'll do it if you want nors. Looking to get back into racing properly again once the World Cup is all done, so it will give me a nice angle!

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Postby nors » Wed Jul 09, 2014 1:33 pm

It would be great des if we got lots of input and bags of helpful research from everyone.

This would truly mean that the descriptions were accurate.

If some members think there is too much research needed why dont members focus on the racecourses that start with the same initial as their username.

So

Welshie could do Warwick
Marshy could do Mussleburgh
TDawg could do Towcester
etc

As mentioned it dosen't matter if we get a few descriptions of the same courses. This will just make the data more accurate.

This then means all the work is not all yours but you have plenty of assistance.

How does that sound to everybody?

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Postby deswalker » Wed Jul 09, 2014 1:52 pm

Why don't we start off with those with local knowledge? Who has local tracks they are particularly familiar with?

:?

davidg and Leicester for example?
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