Horseracing Discussion - Saturday 26TH May

The Executioner
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Horseracing Discussion - Saturday 26TH May

Postby The Executioner » Fri May 25, 2012 5:30 pm

3.45 York

Two for those that like to trade off at shorter to get a ' Free Bet ' are : Ancient Cross @20/1 and Ziggy Lee @33/1 both available at bet365 with also the Best Odds Guaranteed Bonus. Of the two I'd actually give Ancient Cross a fair chance of getting in the frame - only three pounds higher than his last win - with underfoot conditions to suit ; he also tends to come good at this time of the year so with two runs under his belt he should be approaching peak fitness. I'd be surprised if bet365 don't bring the prices in and players of the exchanges should be able to get a risk free punt out of it. :hope: :hope:

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Postby coxy123 » Fri May 25, 2012 6:27 pm

Boylesports are being very generous 2:45 Fiorente @16/1!
6/4 @ Ladbrokes :lol:

all gone now they have updated the market

really like the look of Sole Power tomorrow, won this last year, ran well in Dubai

and Secret Witness out again tomorrow at York went 1,2 in two days, gone up a few lb but theres a claimer taking 3lb off. 8/1 and Skybet playing 5 places

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Postby aidanldrebin » Fri May 25, 2012 7:10 pm

There is a very interesting handicap debutant running in the 8.40 at Lingfield tomorrow called Tis Rock 'N' Roll.

It is a shame he takes on some very poor rivals as he will stand out that bit more, but I am near enough certain he is miles better than his opening mark of 60 suggests and he ought to make a winning handicap debut before climbing the ladder. He is trained by David Lanigan, who has already shown a penchant for getting well-bred horses to win from lowly marks in handicaps in their second season (Melodrama at Wolverhampton earlier this week the latest example). The yard as a whole are in tremendous form at present.

I will put below what I wrote about him for my Dark Horses list, rather than repeat most of what I said:
TIS ROCK 'N' ROLL (b/br c Rock Of Gibraltar - Tis Me) ***
Form: 007- Trainer: David Lanigan Owner: Catesby W Clay

Half brother to 12f 3yo winner Woodford Belle, multiple Canadian 7f-1m winner Christo and US 1m 3yo winner Guygiddyup, out of a multiple winner in the US who was a half sister to smart US sprinter Well Dressed (later dam of Dubai World Cup winner Well Armed and US 7f Grade 3 winner Witty) and several other US winners. This colt went off a not unfancied 10/1 chance on his debut outing at Yarmouth last October (1m), but he was never better than midfield and found himself tailed off with over two furlongs left to run, finishing last of 14 behind Handsome Man (beaten 45 lengths). His next outing came in an extended 1m maiden at Wolverhampton the following month, going off an unfancied 25/1 chance; raced towards the rear of the field and was never involved, but he did run into some difficulty at the top of the straight when appearing to have something still left to give, not knocked about thereafter as he came home 11th of 13 behind Shihbab (beaten 8¾ lengths). His third and final outing came 12 days later in a 1m maiden at Lingfield, sent off a wholly unfancied 100/1 chance; raced out the back once again, never looking likely to get involved at any stage, but he made headway throughout the final furlong for hands and heels riding to eventually finish seventh behind Restaurateur (beaten 7¾ lengths). He has given the impression on all three outings as though a long term project, beaten at halfway on debut under testing conditions and then never involved in a pair of AW maidens the following month, albeit shaping better than his finishing position suggested on both occasions. He is a half brother to a middle distance winner and has shaped as though he will eventually need a test, for all his two other siblings did their winning at up to 1m in the US/Canada; opening mark of 60 looks a nice starting point, and it would be something of a surprise if this son Rock Of Gibraltar didn't have a fair amount of improvement to come for the switch to handicap company this year.

Also, in the 4.15 at York, Finaz looks to build on an eyecatching debut run at Musselburgh, well-supported pre-race but managing only sixth behind Tatlisu. However, he was very green and outpaced towards the rear early on and then found himself short of room entering the final when, just as he started to get the hang of things, finishing with a fair bit left to give. The extra furlong should be in his favour tomorrow, though it is a bit surprising to see he has left Keith Dalgleish for Paul Midgley since that debut run; still expect him to go close, for all that Pay Freeze sets a decent standard on his Newbury second eight days ago.

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Postby smeemartin » Fri May 25, 2012 11:29 pm

Hi Aidan, if you see this, just wondering what you think of Moidore stepping up to 1m 4f in the opener at Haydock, sure you put it up last year when it won on good/fm, and Charlton is doing well with his 3yo h/cappers ...

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Postby jrt6644 » Sat May 26, 2012 2:17 am

Thoughts on a Marwan Koukash horse gaining place in the 3.25 at Chester? :lol:

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Postby BrenIRL » Sat May 26, 2012 6:44 am

Interesting to see T Stack has brought Celerina over from Ireland for the 3:45 York and has frankie booked for the ride. Finished 3rd last time he was brought over here to York 3/4 L behind Masamah at 12/1. Currently 6/1 with bet365.

Stack also has a nice 3yr old running in the 4:20 at the Curragh today Croi An Or which has a really good chance on current form 1,2,1, worth a double with celerina.

He is a yard in great form in Ireland at the moment

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Postby drogerson » Sat May 26, 2012 7:13 am

2000 Guineas

In "Our" 2000 Guineas the field split distinctly into three groups, those being:

Stalls 1 to 4
Stalls 5 to 7
Stalls 8 to 18

I discarded the three tailed off horses, and then calculated each finishing position against their expected chances in consideration.

What I found was that the lower stalls actually ran above their expected chances in comparison with the rest. Potentially this was skewed by the 150/1 and 66/1 horses, so I reduced their "odds" to 20/1 and that group still outperformed.

Therefore I'm led that the higher drawn horses got an advantage on some better ground and with that I believe Hermival would have been a lot closer if he had been drawn better. With that I think he is one to back again today.

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Postby shubert » Sat May 26, 2012 7:13 am

Here we go again.
Good luck to all members today.

The key to successful Saturday afternoon punting, imho, is to keep topping up your wedge between 'big' races with some of the more 'obvious' nags running at the smaller meetings. Not guaranteed i know though this tactic has often worked for me in recent I at least get to punt on the 3:30 plus races!

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Rect ..

Postby nedster » Sat May 26, 2012 7:37 am

I do believe THE RECTIFIER is extremely overpriced 25/1.....Admittedly his Dubai form was bad , But since then he has come on a lot ! ( 4-00 Chester ! )

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Postby kev2oo9 » Sat May 26, 2012 8:12 am

Haggas has a great s/r with 2yos with 5 wins and 4 placed from 13 , off page now n in.nightshift mode so that best checked , with o shea is 1/1 here with 2yos.

3/1 available at 1/4 odds , imo smart runner that's fav looks too short at 8/13

2.25 Odooj

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Postby ben2k8 » Sat May 26, 2012 8:18 am

Parish Hall ruled out of Irish 2,000 Guineas and Epsom Derby with a hing leg infection, according to Horse Racing Ireland. More soon.

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Postby abhinn » Sat May 26, 2012 8:21 am

Seen that but all firms still have him in the betting all very strange
confirmed deffo nr , it might just be but I always feel Bolger is never a guy to listen to when he talks horses he never strikes me as the most straightforward guy to deal with ..

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