GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2023 - Weights Published

The Seven Pillars of Wisdom
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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2023 - Weights Published

Postby The Seven Pillars of Wisdom » Wed Mar 29, 2023 3:57 pm

I'll likely be sticking with the 4 i have i think...

Corach Rambler 20-1 ew
Won the Ultima twice. 10lb well in. Trainer and jockey won race before. Obvious chance on National course debut.

Delta Work 20-1 ew 5 places
Won at Cheltenham, 3rd last year and weighted ok. A bold show likely, especially if he can iron out the early fence stickiness of last year.

Le Milos 20-1 ew 5 places
Won the Coral Gold Cup where he beat Corach Rambler who has franked the form since. Every chance if he gets the trip as Corach only has a 7lb pull for a 9 length beating from that race.

Mr Incredible 14-1 ew 5 places
Willie Mullins reckons he's better than his mark and Patrick Mullins rates him the stable's best chance for glory. And seemed to have ironed out his quirks the last twice. So has to be respected.
I think they’re pretty sound selections Mike. With most of the good ones anchored it does look like this could be a penalty kick for Corach if he stays.

I’m sure you’ll add a bigger priced one too nearer the time.

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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2023 - Weights Published

Postby Happy Medium » Wed Mar 29, 2023 4:14 pm

To put the task awaiting Noble Yeats, Galvin and Any Second Now into some kind of perspective, since 2003 there have been 21 attempts by 16 different horses to win a 3m+ handicap off a mark of 166 or greater.

The only horse to have been successful is Denman off 174.
Holy moly. Very interesting 7Pillars. Cheers

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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2023 - Weights Published

Postby JJ2019 » Wed Mar 29, 2023 6:20 pm

I'll likely be sticking with the 4 i have i think...

Corach Rambler 20-1 ew
Won the Ultima twice. 10lb well in. Trainer and jockey won race before. Obvious chance on National course debut.

Delta Work 20-1 ew 5 places
Won at Cheltenham, 3rd last year and weighted ok. A bold show likely, especially if he can iron out the early fence stickiness of last year.

Le Milos 20-1 ew 5 places
Won the Coral Gold Cup where he beat Corach Rambler who has franked the form since. Every chance if he gets the trip as Corach only has a 7lb pull for a 9 length beating from that race.

Mr Incredible 14-1 ew 5 places
Willie Mullins reckons he's better than his mark and Patrick Mullins rates him the stable's best chance for glory. And seemed to have ironed out his quirks the last twice. So has to be respected.
Have you turned your back on The Big Breakaway completely Mike?
I know he has a bit to prove after Cheltenham but I still believe the National will suit and I'm putting that effort down to rustiness coming off a break into a very hot contest. Plus, Joe Tizzard has outlined this as the target for a while and you feel now there may be added motivation to leave no stone unturned in his prep. He's still worth having on side in my view, and there's 50s about him now.

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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2023 - Weights Published

Postby mike campo13 » Wed Mar 29, 2023 6:49 pm

Hi Seven.
I would have thought that most OR166+ rated horses dropping back into handicaps are previous grade 1 horses that are no longer at the peak of their powers. I'm hoping that Noble Yeats is still on the upgrade.

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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2023 - Weights Published

Postby The Seven Pillars of Wisdom » Wed Mar 29, 2023 7:15 pm

Hi Seven.
I would have thought that most OR166+ rated horses dropping back into handicaps are previous grade 1 horses that are no longer at the peak of their powers. I'm hoping that Noble Yeats is still on the upgrade.
Tidal Bay accounted for three of those efforts and finished runner up in two, in the Rowland Meyrick and Hennessy. You forget what a superb horse he was.

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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2023 - Weights Published

Postby Mike N » Wed Mar 29, 2023 7:18 pm

I have jj2019 yes. I think he needs it soft to slow others down too. Pulled up 2 of the last 4 starts. Went off him after Cheltenham.

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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2023 - Weights Published

Postby The Seven Pillars of Wisdom » Wed Mar 29, 2023 7:28 pm

Since 01/01/2003 a total of 112 horses rated 160+ have run in a Handicap Chase over 3m+

7 winners
25 placed

Most recent winner was Royale Pagaille at Haydock in January 22.

Of the 112 only 7 were in Ireland with none of them troubling the judge.

This is the interesting part mc!

Horses aged 7 or 8 account for 33 runners.

They have produced 6 of those 7 winners and 11 of the placed horses.

The only horse in this bracket to have run at Aintree was…… Many Clouds.

God I’m good!

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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2023 - Weights Published

Postby mike campo13 » Wed Mar 29, 2023 7:33 pm

Thanks Seven

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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2023 - Weights Published

Postby The Seven Pillars of Wisdom » Wed Mar 29, 2023 7:52 pm

Obviously that brings in Capodanno too

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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2023 - Weights Published

Postby JJ2019 » Wed Mar 29, 2023 8:28 pm

Since 01/01/2003 a total of 112 horses rated 160+ have run in a Handicap Chase over 3m+

7 winners
25 placed

Most recent winner was Royale Pagaille at Haydock in January 22.

Of the 112 only 7 were in Ireland with none of them troubling the judge.

This is the interesting part mc!

Horses aged 7 or 8 account for 33 runners.

They have produced 6 of those 7 winners and 11 of the placed horses.

The only horse in this bracket to have run at Aintree was…… Many Clouds.

God I’m good!
Or L'Homme Presse if half a furlong here or there doesn't bother you too much...?

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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2023 - Weights Published

Postby The Seven Pillars of Wisdom » Wed Mar 29, 2023 8:40 pm

That half furlong is crucial!

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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2023 - Weights Published

Postby Mike N » Thu Mar 30, 2023 9:24 am

FYI, the link to the voting round 2 is up...

https://www.olbg.com/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 6#p1779076

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