GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2022 - Early Thoughts part 1

mike campo13
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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2022 - Early Thoughts part 1

Postby mike campo13 » Wed Jan 26, 2022 8:49 am

Apologies.
I somehow missed Rule the World's win.
I certainly don't like Orchestra as a GN sire but hadn't done any research on him as a Damsire.
How much of a negative do you think that is Happy ?
Assuming that they enter EE next week, ( and you never know with this stable despite any statements that they may release to the media ), it will be a nail biting time all the way to Final decs stage unless they withdraw it first, thinking it won't get in.

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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2022 - Early Thoughts part 1

Postby Happy Medium » Wed Jan 26, 2022 12:21 pm

Apologies.
I somehow missed Rule the World's win.
I certainly don't like Orchestra as a GN sire but hadn't done any research on him as a Damsire.
How much of a negative do you think that is Happy ?
Assuming that they enter EE next week, ( and you never know with this stable despite any statements that they may release to the media ), it will be a nail biting time all the way to Final decs stage unless they withdraw it first, thinking it won't get in.
Quality of flat progeny is the stat when it comes to 1st damsire.
On my system, Orchestra as DS1 fails to tick a box that is relevant to the business-end only and by no means a killer when it comes to finishing in the money.
7 of the 8 GN winners (6 of 7 horses; Pineau De Re the exception) had a 1st dam-sire that had sired or dam-sired a G1 winner at 12f+ on the flat (or at 10f+ but scoring an RPR120+). So that's 87.5% of winners post-2012 from 62 of the 316 total runners (19.6% of fields) that had such a 1st damsire.
Orchestra has just a single USA G1 winner (Corrazona) at 9f, with a best RPR of 109. Nowt else.

However:
- of the 15 placed horses that finished up to 10L of the winner, 6 (40%) had such a dam-sire - still a meaningful outperformance but not a killer.
- and 4 of the 25 horses to be placed 2nd~5th but >10L behind the winner had such a damsire (16%, so irrelevant to making the minor places)

and the fact that EE's 3rd damsire is Le Bavard (dam-sire of Numbersixvalverde and McKelvey and DS3 to Many Clouds; and bringing Wild Risk to the party), together with a GN near-misser in the family (EE's DS6 = DS5 of Romany King) is a stat plus in my book.

Of course there are plenty of other non-pedigree stats, many of which he ticks. That absence of a win or close-shave since the 19/20 season is the main other negative but the handicapper's giving him the perfect chance to put that right and, importantly, he's running creditably again.

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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2022 - Early Thoughts part 1

Postby The Seven Pillars of Wisdom » Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:42 pm

Last year was rare in that neither Minella Times’ stallion nor his damsire won a Group 1 on the level. If like me you’re of the opinion that Any Second Now would probably have won but for the hampering, he too was by the same stallion and did not have a Group 1 winning damsire. Indeed Minella Times had no Group 1 winning stallion on his dams side until you went back six generations. He really bucked the modern day National trend.

What I’m finding really intriguing is the influence of Strong Gale now that he only appears in broodmares. A truly appalling 4 mile wins to runs ratio as a stallion but a pretty bloody good one when appearing in the dam’s line particularly with Midlands National winners.

By and large when you see a stallions progeny finish their racing careers and they then appear only as the immediate damsire a lot seem to operate at around a 10% win percentage. King’s Theatre as an immediate damsire is seemingly operating above this level, so he is certainly one to keep an eye on when appearing in the dam.

Strong Gale strangely seems to be becoming a greater influence the further down the generational pecking order he goes and he appears a lot.

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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2022 - Early Thoughts part 1

Postby Happy Medium » Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:20 pm

Last year was rare in that neither Minella Times’ stallion nor his damsire won a Group 1 on the level. If like me you’re of the opinion that Any Second Now would probably have won but for the hampering, he too was by the same stallion and did not have a Group 1 winning damsire. Indeed Minella Times had no Group 1 winning stallion on his dams side until you went back six generations. He really bucked the modern day National trend.

What I’m finding really intriguing is the influence of Strong Gale now that he only appears in broodmares. A truly appalling 4 mile wins to runs ratio as a stallion but a pretty bloody good one when appearing in the dam’s line particularly with Midlands National winners.

By and large when you see a stallions progeny finish their racing careers and they then appear only as the immediate damsire a lot seem to operate at around a 10% win percentage. King’s Theatre as an immediate damsire is seemingly operating above this level, so he is certainly one to keep an eye on when appearing in the dam.

Strong Gale strangely seems to be becoming a greater influence the further down the generational pecking order he goes and he appears a lot.
We've all got our on own take on these things but I think the problem with looking only to the race record of the damsire is that (while this doesn't apply to Minella Times' DS Anshan, though he was only beaten 1/2L in a Group 1) some stallions have had limited or injury-shortened or even no careers. For example unraced Accordion (damsire of Monbeg Dude who but for serious bad luck in running might have beaten Many Clouds) had sired a G1 winner at 12f.
And how would one view unraced and still active as a stallion Gold Well (sire of Galvin), younger brother of multiple G1 winner Montjeu?
In any event, since great champions on the track can be anything but at stud, in my view what matters is what they're capable of passing on as regards genes and, thus, if you look to the 10f+ flat records of their progeny, one could conclude that Minella Times (since Anshan sired a G1 winner at 12f) was indeed following the strong pattern as regards damsires of modern GN winners; as I said above, <20% of fields producing 87.5% of winners and 40% of those finishing within 10L of them.
But to each their own, of course.

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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2022 - Early Thoughts part 1

Postby Corbiere » Thu Jan 27, 2022 3:01 pm

Thyestes Chase @ Gowran Park at 3.05 today
With GN in mind very interested to watch Mister Fogpatches performance (3rd in last year's Scottish) currently 40/1 for GN
Also Smoking Gun keeping an aye on him for Irish GN if he gets an entry.
Some of the others Escaria Ten looks inexperienced
Ontheropes 40/1 for GN
Braeside 33/1 for GN
Chris's Dream 66/1 for GN
Brahma Bull 66/1 for GN
Should be informative anyway.

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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2022 - Early Thoughts part 1

Postby Mike N » Thu Jan 27, 2022 3:22 pm

Escaria Ten ran an eyecatching race, only blew up 2 out on first run. May well lose a pound or two as well. Doesn't have the experience to come 1st on trends, but few will be better handicapped on that NH Chase run.

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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2022 - Early Thoughts part 1

Postby Lescargot » Thu Jan 27, 2022 4:09 pm

Hello Seven

Off You Go interests me, I posted below last year:


Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:48 am

Off you go 33/1 with Skybet. Have backed him. Just a reminder that Off you go beat MT 1/2 a length at levels over 2.5 1/2f. - Livelovelaugh was 3rd (won the topham) and Farclas was 4th (5th in the GN)- I backed OYG in the Irish, I rewatched the endow the race and he was held up in midfield and given a lot to do, when trying to make ground he had a troubled passage, but it was still a bit disappointing that he didn't finish stronger, but given the form, the pedigree and the 6th placing, he's definitely worth a bet even if 33/1 is a bit short.DP = 1-1-4-7-3 (16) DI = 0.33 CD = -0.63 -

my worries with him now are 1 hurdle pre at the end of December, no entries.

Any Second now too me seems the best bet, I have been backing him for the last year, he ran a big eye-catcher today, and Ted Walsh knows how to campaign national horses.He may just sneak in under 11.00 and with luck I think he has a strong chance Of the first 4.

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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2022 - Early Thoughts part 1

Postby kj 23 » Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:12 pm

Hey Lescargot, I didn't know ASN ran again today, cheers.
Just watched that hurdles I preferred his last one, he wasn't keen to go on and they didn't try to make him, but you know tick tock :wink:
I think its reasonable to be top pick overall considering how he stayed on last yr, the one to take forward both immediately after the race and with the season so far.. I feel 'I could find better' as last yr, but don't know if thats possible, in terms of jumping Aintree maybe, was it all awkward a long way because of his dislike of 'branch face' or the hampering 2 fences later, I think its hard to say, but together they were more significant, so as previous yr with him but having proven his Larkspurs, is all powerful, again I have him dancing about in my top 6, but now with certainty my top 3.

Home by the Lee is suddenly looking straightforward! nearly won at 80s, hope you gave him an e/w crumb Seven!
Klassical made for an odd performance, strutting head down early on, tamely finding zero at the end. Was he exhausted strutting about showing off to the girls in the parade I wonder? like to hear the explanation for that one,

Thyestes digest.
Braeside was very disappointing, never going. Ok so were others... Brahma seems to have peaked early and gone right off, Chris,.hmm.
Escaria moved into things well, almost eyecatching, but it came to nothing.
After seeing the forecast rain with a chance of Fogpatches no I made that bit up :D I thought the fav would win and Fogpatches would be Mr. Reliable yardstick in 3rd and so it was. What did we learn not sure, have some got the winter blues? cos otherwise its not looking this Yr for a few.

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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2022 - Early Thoughts part 1

Postby The Seven Pillars of Wisdom » Thu Jan 27, 2022 9:48 pm

The main thing I took from the Thyestes today was that they went hard, really hard. Quite unusual for a mid season handicap. That was one searching gallop. I think the first four home came out with a lot of credit there and Ontheropes staying on from the back off that fast pace having made mistakes wasn’t lost on me either. Amazing how many finished absolutely legless from promising positions. Brutal.

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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2022 - Early Thoughts part 1

Postby Many Clouds » Thu Jan 27, 2022 10:17 pm

If Mister Fogpatches got in I think he's very likeable. Can't see his mark going up much if any off today though and as it stands he's got no chance.

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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2022 - Early Thoughts part 1

Postby The Seven Pillars of Wisdom » Fri Jan 28, 2022 7:08 am

It will be interesting to see if The Galloping Bear gets a cheeky entry. Not sure what his revised mark will be following his win. I was there to see him win on Sunday but unfortunately picked the second and third. Hindsight has shown what an idiot I was really. He shares the same maternal grandmother as Mighty Thunder in Osocool, who herself produced a son called Coolking that, wait for it, won the Surrey National. Doh!

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Re: GN Guide Bloggers Grand National 2022 - Early Thoughts part 1

Postby The Seven Pillars of Wisdom » Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:18 am

If Mister Fogpatches got in I think he's very likeable. Can't see his mark going up much if any off today though and as it stands he's got no chance.
It’s a shame he won’t at this stage because he does seem rock solid. He has that added bonus of having Wild Risk in plain sight along his dam’s line too. His CMP isn’t quite ideal as I understand it. Alas it looks as though it will be the Midlands, Irish or Scottish for him. Indeed all the first four home had Wild Risk in their respective dams I see (as did a few others it has to be said).

Court Maid is another going under the radar a bit. Has come down in the handicap slightly having been set some unrealistic tasks so far this season. She has won over the furthest distance she has faced. Had a little trip over the water last season and didn’t get the greatest of rides but ran on well. You’ve got your Wild Risk through Supreme Leader but not ideal CMP. I haven’t read what the plan is with her but another likeable, genuine sort. Could be a tough one to unpick this year.

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