Horse Racing Discussion for January

Crofty11
Triple Crown Winner
Tips
Posts: 1585
Joined: Sat Jan 11, 2014 12:00 am

Re: Horse Racing Discussion for January

Postby Crofty11 » Sun Jan 23, 2022 12:09 pm

I watched the replay, the third tried to get involved and couldn’t go the pace, and it's a 162 horse, Shiskin has the look of one that will get better over further to me, so he could be one of the best. Cheltenham will be very interesting if they both get there sound.

Yesterday i had 3 2nds, and washed my face, so I am hunting bigger prices today, probably with no luck. EW L 15

1.10 W Winterwatch 12/1
harry Fry is in great form and he has only one runner today in winter watch, a decent horse on the flat he was sent off 100/30 on debut where he was held up at the rear and US at the third, probably better than that he can challenge for 2nd in a smaller field.

3.00 L Lieutenant Rocco 18/1

This one could be an unexpected winner, only 7 years old he loves heavy going run three times on it and won all three including last time over 3 miles at F Lass. He will need to improve a lot to challenge but at 7 thats not impossible.

3.30 L Exodela 33/1
Jamie Snowdon is 20% with his chasers this season, Exolada hasn’t been that great over fences although he was still in touch two out over 4 miles at Hexham, his top mark over hurdles is 125 and he has been dropping down the weights ever since, off 109 today if his jumping is up to snuff he can go well.

4.08 L Rays the one 9/1

g Moore is in fantastic form right now , and Rays the one can go well in the finale, the horse has won two of his last three and providing he handles the ground he can improve to get in the mix.

meoldmate
Legend
Tips
Posts: 23837
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 11:00 pm
Location: Fife

Re: Horse Racing Discussion for January

Postby meoldmate » Sun Jan 23, 2022 1:52 pm

3.00 Lingfield.

Highlighted ACEY MILAN and THE FLYING SOFA from the 2018 champion bumper race and they paid there way with placed positions, hopefully the win could be on today with DASHEL DRASHER who will be having a battle with Bristol De Mai and my selection could have the ability and younger legs to see that opponent off.
OLBG Moderator

redboy
Stallion
Tips
Posts: 6956
Joined: Mon Apr 13, 2009 11:00 pm

Re: Horse Racing Discussion for January

Postby redboy » Sun Jan 23, 2022 2:35 pm

Pretty poor days racing today and hard to find anything to be excited about. But for interest I will have a play on High Counsel in the 3.25 Warwick . Won here in April but has been dreadful since. Back to a handy mark today at a course were he has 3/7 wins and a further place (1/1 c & d).
Sean Bowen takes the ride for the first time - @ 20/1 looks a nice price to play with for a bit if interest.
Last edited by redboy on Sun Jan 23, 2022 3:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Shrews
At Stud
Tips
Posts: 2636
Joined: Tue Dec 12, 2006 12:00 am

Re: Horse Racing Discussion for January

Postby Shrews » Sun Jan 23, 2022 3:01 pm

Late afternoon ew double for me

Smugglers Blues (7/1) in the 3.25 Warwick and Little Red Lion (18/1) in the 3.35 Lingfield. Smugglers seems to be best at this sort of distance and on this going and performed well two classes higher last year. That's a similar case with Little Red Lion who contested the Eiger last year but fell. Heavy ground will suit him better than most in this and if he can get around, should be thereabouts.

We are bang in the middle of Cheltenham prep-race season and Allaho runs in the 3.15 Thurles at long odds-on, so will be interesting to see how he does.

Will Teasle
Group 1 Class
Tips
Posts: 468
Joined: Thu Aug 29, 2019 5:00 pm

Re: Horse Racing Discussion for January

Postby Will Teasle » Mon Jan 24, 2022 10:23 am

Anyone who looks at the Attheraces racecards needs to know that their data is currently providing confusing information for Southwell.
For example in the 2.00 race the horse Mulzim has a surface icon (S) highlighted in gold which I take to mean that it is worthy of special consideration on today's surface.
Looking at the icon we are told that the horse has registered 6 wins on 'this' surface which suggests today's surface, Tapeta. In fact Mulzim has only one win on Tapeta, his six wins coming on Fibresand. There may well be other examples.
The surface was changed in early December and it is time that Attheraces updated their records. An inexperienced punter or racegoer can be misled by this.

Crofty11
Triple Crown Winner
Tips
Posts: 1585
Joined: Sat Jan 11, 2014 12:00 am

Re: Horse Racing Discussion for January

Postby Crofty11 » Mon Jan 24, 2022 12:09 pm

I noticed that Will it will be interesting to see if the surface makes a difference, i heard one presenter saying that some horses that did well on the old surface are doing well on the new, but I haven't looked into it.

Washout for me Yesterday and have picked a couple very ambitious on win my L 15 EW

1.15 K judys Park 12/1

The trainer is in great form and Judy park cab go well, she was 4th of 10 last time out off mark of 66 in a class 5 over 6 furlongs. She had a 3lb claimer on that day , today she has a mark of 62 with a 7lb claimer up down to a class 6 she can do better with cheek pieces on.

1.45 K gephardo 66/1

This mare coming down the weights as she has been struggling in her last 5 runs after winning off a mark of 53 at chepstow in a class 6, she is off 51. her last run on the AW was in dec 2020 when she was 6th of 12 beaten only 1.5 lengths. She has won when fresh and IMO is better on the AW than turf, very speculative EW although she has an outside draw to overcome.

2.15 K Album 33/1

Album ran nice enough race last time out finishing 5th of 12 beaten 2.5 lengths off mark of 72, that was in a grade 5 0-75, today its 0-70 and he is running off a mark of 71 with a decent 7lb claimer up, the horse has a 50% win and place record on the AW , EW

7.00 W the Provenist 9/1

First time a handicap and he ran much better finishing 5th of 11. the four horses in front of him that day have come out and either won or placed, bar the winner who finished 4th. Chance’s if putting up his best .

nors
Legend
Tips
Posts: 15943
Joined: Mon Jul 31, 2006 11:00 pm
Location: Coventry

Re: Horse Racing Discussion for January

Postby nors » Mon Jan 24, 2022 12:34 pm

Today is a day to take special notice of jockeys and which horses they rode previously.

There are 3 AW meetings but with the new rules jocks can only ride at one of them, therefore they will need to forgo possible winning mounts at one of the other tracks.

You can imagine that the top jocks had some tricky choices to make, here are the Top AW jocks this season with their lowest weight.

David Probert 8-5 Kempton
Hollie Doyle 8-0 Wolves
Jason Watson 8-5 Kempton
Marco Ghiani 8-3 Kempton
Daniel Muscutt 8-9 No Rides
Tom Marquand 8-7 Southwell

Probert and Doyle as the top two riders need to have ALL their rides closely monitored today, they may well be the beneficiaries of the best spare rides.

Muscutt is not riding but rode these horses LTO.
2.00 Mulzim Southwell Beasley 33/1
2.15 Covert Mission Kempton Probert 3/1
5.00 Sandies Dream Wolverhampton Doyle 5/2
7.00 Brown Mouse Wolverhampton Fanning 12/1

Good luck to all.
OLBG Community Manager.

Shrews
At Stud
Tips
Posts: 2636
Joined: Tue Dec 12, 2006 12:00 am

Re: Horse Racing Discussion for January

Postby Shrews » Mon Jan 24, 2022 2:20 pm

2.30 Southwell - By Jove 10/1

4 places in this and this one has wins at Chelmsford and Wolves plus a place at Lingfield so there's a good chance he won't have a problem here on his first run at Southwell, especially as the old Fibresand has gone and relaid with Tapeta. He's in form, only a length off the winner LTO in a class higher over 10f and just a pound higher than his last win. Won over 12f at Wolves last year so stamina shouldn't be an issue and the apprentice has won on him before.

Shrews
At Stud
Tips
Posts: 2636
Joined: Tue Dec 12, 2006 12:00 am

Re: Horse Racing Discussion for January

Postby Shrews » Mon Jan 24, 2022 3:25 pm

Nozieres 3.30 Southwell 200/1

Funny old race this 3.30 at Southwell and looks like it could be anybody's. This is an interesting filly who could get involved at a huge price, but could also finish 20 lengths off the winner. Personally, I feel it's been badly trained and possibly badly ridden too. Talented Laura Person takes over today, so it will be interesting if she can get something different from the horse.

It's the first time she's tackled 7f since arguably her best run to date where she finished 5l off the winner but the 7 in front have achieved ratings 20lb or better than these. so there was some talent shown in that. Since then she's tackled mainly 6f, and placed off 62 in February last year. Now runs off 45 with Laura Pearson claiming 3lb. The horse clearly has issues with the start, with comments of 'reared in stalls' and 'ducked right' appearing often.

The owners must be very loyal because that should've been addressed by now and this horse should be running over 7f+ from reading many of the RP comments about it.

Crofty11
Triple Crown Winner
Tips
Posts: 1585
Joined: Sat Jan 11, 2014 12:00 am

Re: Horse Racing Discussion for January

Postby Crofty11 » Tue Jan 25, 2022 11:10 am

Hi Shrews some nice tipping in the last few days, Smugglers won at nice price and By jove ran well in 2nd yesterday, i like appleby and a 7lb claimer he seems to place the horses well for them. Although looking at his stats, when he puts up T Marquard 21%.


washout for me yesterday and trying another 4 going for glory!! EW L15

1.00 l Creationist 33/1

Coming down the weights gradually and is now in a class 5, last time here he ran not too badly in a class 4, the two in front of him that day 4 and 7 lengths, have run well the 2nd horse was 2nd in a class 2 here and the winner won a class 3 also here. Creationist ran off 79 that day with a 3lb claimer up, 76 today and a7lb claimer up, he might outrun the big odds.

1.20 Liec Baby Sham 16/1

The trainer has had a couple of winners recently and baby is his only runner of the day, sitting at the bottom of the handicap , 3lb claimer up and not too bad a run last time out she can go well in this mares race,

4.00 Ling Henley Park 14/1

g Moore is in good form and Henley can go well, he was staying on at the end of his last race into 4th over mile at kempton, that was one of his 3 runs where he came 4th the best he has done so far, he might go one or two better today.

16:20 4:20 Leice Made for you 12/1

This horse is in great form, second last time out and winning the start before, creeping up the weights but at 7 it's not impossible that he has some improvement left in him.

Shrews
At Stud
Tips
Posts: 2636
Joined: Tue Dec 12, 2006 12:00 am

Re: Horse Racing Discussion for January

Postby Shrews » Tue Jan 25, 2022 4:20 pm

I think I will have a little play at Southwell tonight with a small stakes L15

4.30 Reclaim Victory 11/1
Looks the value in the race at a double figure price. Runs off the same mark as when 2nd of 10 over CD last time out.

6.30 Kittens Dream 28/1
Was 2nd in a class 4 here over 2m 2f here in December and raced over 1m 6f and 1m 4f since then at Class 5. So back up in distance to 2m and down to Class 6 could well improve its chances

7.00 Nataleena 5/1
Signs of a return lto when a 2l 5th. That was its best run for a while and in a higher class. Likely it will get involved if it repeats that.

8.00 Buy Me Back 16/1
A pound below its win at Brighton last summer. Probert rode that day and is back on tonight. Has shown some decent recent form and likely he's ready to get involved.

Good luck all!

Shrews
At Stud
Tips
Posts: 2636
Joined: Tue Dec 12, 2006 12:00 am

Re: Horse Racing Discussion for January

Postby Shrews » Tue Jan 25, 2022 4:39 pm


4.00 Ling Henley Park 14/1

g Moore is in good form and Henley can go well, he was staying on at the end of his last race into 4th over mile at kempton, that was one of his 3 runs where he came 4th the best he has done so far, he might go one or two better today.

16:20 4:20 Leice Made for you 12/1

This horse is in great form, second last time out and winning the start before, creeping up the weights but at 7 it's not impossible that he has some improvement left in him.
Nice 18/1 winner with Henley Park, Crofty, and the place double with Made For You.

It will be the age old quandary as to why we can all get a winner, maybe even four winners on four successive days, but getting four on the same day is nigh on impossible! :?

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users