Horse Racing Discussion and Information Weekly Thread - Mon 8th Jan - Sun 14th Jan

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Re: Horse Racing Discussion and Information Weekly Thread - Mon 8th Jan - Sun 14th Jan

Postby ExoticDancer » Sat Jan 13, 2018 5:33 pm

17.45 Muthraab Aldar 10/3 and Lesanti 28/1

A previous course and distance winner, and a 6th in a stronger race than this last time, I think he could have enough to take this.

I also quite like Lesanti 28/1 for an e/w bet and a FC. He finished 8th and 10th in the last two races on artifical surfaces, beaten a total of 44 l but you can excuse each race. He had nowhere to go behind a wall of horses when 8th and last time he ran a really good race up until 1-2 furlongs out when still leading, then weakened out. This is a drop in trip and same tactics can see him really close.
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Re: Horse Racing Discussion and Information Weekly Thread - Mon 8th Jan - Sun 14th Jan

Postby ExoticDancer » Sat Jan 13, 2018 5:56 pm

The first didn't go well at all :)

18.15 Fire Diamond 9/1

I think form is stronger than the market leaders but because he's jumping up in class, he's of really nice weight, i.e. well handicapped I think. He has won twice here, including on distance, and was actually quite unlucky not to win last time again.
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Re: Horse Racing Discussion and Information Weekly Thread - Mon 8th Jan - Sun 14th Jan

Postby Shrews » Sat Jan 13, 2018 6:28 pm

Miss Dusky Diva 6.45 - won the race last year and off the same mark
Poppy In The Wind 7.15 - CD win here in December in the same class but has won off higher too
Kingofmerrows 7.45 - I especially like this one. His mark of 70 looks reasonable based on his conqueror last time probably rated 80+ and was giving that horse 19lb for a 4l beating.

1 pt ew Patent 16/1, 12/1, 10/1 with Hills

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Re: Horse Racing Discussion and Information Weekly Thread - Mon 8th Jan - Sun 14th Jan

Postby ExoticDancer » Sat Jan 13, 2018 6:35 pm

18.45 Miss Dusky Diva 16/1 e/w

She's got the form to go close in this.
I also think Indian Red and Pantomine will run well so placed a combi tricast on the three.
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Re: Horse Racing Discussion and Information Weekly Thread - Mon 8th Jan - Sun 14th Jan

Postby ExoticDancer » Sat Jan 13, 2018 7:05 pm

19.15 Major Crispies 11/2

I think he's got the form to win it. Also RFC Hamish Mcgonagain 12/1 who ran like the late train last time at Lingfield but form slightly weaker than the selection.
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Re: Horse Racing Discussion and Information Weekly Thread - Mon 8th Jan - Sun 14th Jan

Postby ExoticDancer » Sat Jan 13, 2018 7:41 pm

19.45 Kingofmerrows 9/1 e/w

Form looks good enough, specifically the 3rd behind Star Quality who went on to get a close 2nd in a class 2 next and bits and pieces of other form.
I think the Amber Fort is a danger so have placed a RFC. Also a small tri with Awsome Allan to come in rd
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Re: Horse Racing Discussion and Information Weekly Thread - Mon 8th Jan - Sun 14th Jan

Postby ExoticDancer » Sat Jan 13, 2018 8:38 pm

20.45 Emilia Jones 9/1

Drop in trip will suit, very open race. I hope not another donkey :P
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Re: Horse Racing Discussion and Information Weekly Thread - Mon 8th Jan - Sun 14th Jan

Postby meoldmate » Sat Jan 13, 2018 10:45 pm

Sunday at Kelso, I went to do the one a day comp and selected the wrong race.

The race I looked at was the 1.10 Kelso and glancing at the race, I notice the Bowen's coming together, which could be a rare thing, with Sean riding mainly for Paul Nicholls and picking up rides for other trainers, I know he has ridden for dad Peter and also not been successful, today could be different.
Sean only ride of the meeting and Peter only runner of the day.
LORD NAPIER is having his first run over hurdles and first outing for Peter Bowen, as the five year old use to be trained by John Ryan on the flat and his last run was at Newmarket in a class two handicap.

Peter Bowen trains at Little Newcastle in Pembrokeshire and has sent this horse on a 361 mile trip (one way) to Kelso and connections to go this far could be worth their while, even though the prize money is just over £4,000.
To do a seven hour drive to here, the horse must be showing something potential at home and ready to give notification of a big run.
At this period of time 10/1 is offer, would not be surprised if this price is a lot shorter before post time.

The gelding has yet to win but could be progressive enough to score here and if doing so, he may prove useful indeed.
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Re: Horse Racing Discussion and Information Weekly Thread - Mon 8th Jan - Sun 14th Jan

Postby GazzaTAFC » Sun Jan 14, 2018 10:59 am

We all know that Southwell is a unique course for specialists and that the track has undone many a decent horse over the years. So I've taken the opportunity to have a quick glimpse at the recent stats over the past year or so. Two names that immediately jump out are Karl Burke and Ben Curtis.

Burke has one runner there today and Curtis has three rides.

In the 13:20 Lady Sandy is Ben's first ride of the day. A horse which seems to be improving, albeit very slowly. A 4th and a 5th in recent weeks at this course but both were over 6f and now returns to 7f. Has a lot of work to do to turn the tables on Good Impression but potentially an e/w shout at 7's.

The 13:55 sees Karl Burke's debutant Lord Oberon take in Curtis' Kripke. Lord Oberon was an 80,000gns yearling and is closely related to a bunch of half decent sprint types. Not sure this 7f will entirely suit and you never quite know with horses having their first run so probably best to side with Kripke on this occasion. A promising 3rd on debut at Doncaster stands him in good stead here as long as he takes to the surface. Half brother to a fibresand winner so no reason he can't.

Finally, Mr Coco Bean will be very hard to beat in the finale. Runner up over C&D in December followed up with a win here a couple of weeks ago. Just 5lb higher now and will take all the catching under Curtis.
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Re: Horse Racing Discussion and Information Weekly Thread - Mon 8th Jan - Sun 14th Jan

Postby The Executioner » Sun Jan 14, 2018 12:14 pm

One small interest bet for me today - the potential place returns are 4.35 points with the win odds calculated at 71/1 :hope:
Other than that it looks a fairly modest day.


1 Point EW Treble 12.40 Kelso - Knockrobin 3/1 , 1.20 Southwell - Ray Purchase 3/1 , 3.05 Fairyhouse - De Plotting Shed 7/2 ...... prices available with William Hill

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Re: Horse Racing Discussion and Information Weekly Thread - Mon 8th Jan - Sun 14th Jan

Postby The Executioner » Sun Jan 14, 2018 12:48 pm

Favourite backers in the first at Kelso a little fortunate there with the runner up trading as low as 1.03 in running :shock:

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Re: Horse Racing Discussion and Information Weekly Thread - Mon 8th Jan - Sun 14th Jan

Postby ExoticDancer » Sun Jan 14, 2018 1:52 pm

13.55 Southwell Wazin 5/1

He's got some bits of form and is overpriced in the context of this race, should go close to favs.
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