Horse Racing Discussion - Thursday 12 January 2017

Robmull
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Horse Racing Discussion - Thursday 12 January 2017

Postby Robmull » Wed Jan 11, 2017 4:22 pm

There are 4 race meetings in the UK on Thursday, as follows:

CATTERICK (NH): 7 races: 12.50 to 3.50

CHELMSFORD (AW): 6 races: 5.50 to 8.30

LEICESTER (NH): 7 races: 12.35 to 3.40

NEWCASTLE (NH): 7 races: 2.00 to 5.00

There is also a good quality 8 race card of flat racing on turf and dirt for the second meeting of this year’s Dubai Carnival.

I will return later this evening with my thoughts on Thursday's racing.

For anyone who is interested, I have posted the first iteration of my trends based blog (see link below) for the Betfred Classic Handicap Chase at Warwick on Saturday.

Finally, I would like to wish everyone all the best with their selections and hopefully we can find and post some good winners on this thread today.

Recent blogs:

32Red Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle at Kempton Key Race Trends – 14 January 2017
https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412149

Betfred Classic Handicap Chase at Warwick Key Race Trends – 14 January 2017
https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412157

Profitable Horse Racing Betting System – Introducing the VALUE CALCULATOR
https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412142

Casper77
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Re: Horse Racing Discussion - Thursday 12 January 2017

Postby Casper77 » Wed Jan 11, 2017 7:12 pm

8:00 Chelmsford Sir Jamie 12/1 e/w

I've been following apprentice Aled Beech recently as he has been putting in some fine displays. Gave Nonchalant a positive winning ride last week and almost gave top weight Very First Blade a win in a hand n heels race on Tuesday. He is riding Tony Caroll's Sir Jamie here claiming 7lb. It was an eyecatching run LTO coming back from a winter break over 7f. Travelled from the rear but seemed outpaced in the end. Takes a step back up to the mile today, he ran over this distance on his penultimate run at Brighton and was gradually getting the hang of the trip in the end. He may appreciate the return to this trip on the AW, dropped in grade to this class 7. Basically rides off bottom weight in this race. 4 places available. Great chance.

:hope:

EDIT: ... money is coming. bet365 11/1 still there and it's their 4/1+ free bet offer.

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Re: Horse Racing Discussion - Thursday 12 January 2017

Postby Robmull » Wed Jan 11, 2017 8:55 pm

There are a couple of interesting Class 2 Handicaps at Newcastle on Thursday.

3.30 MASTERPAVER

Has finished in the first 3 on 18 of his 36 starts on synthetic surfaces, winning 5 times and was only beaten a neck last time out over this course and distance on his debut at this track. That was only a Class 4 handicap and he has been raised 1 lb for that effort, so will need to find a bit more, but jockey Tony Hamilton takes over from an apprentice this time and current best odds of 6/1 BOG appear generous.

4.30 HOLIDAY MAGIC

Is an all weather specialist with 7 wins from 17 starts on synthetic surfaces, including victories in last 3 races at Wolverhampton, Chelmsford and Southwell. This Class 2 race is tougher and has been raised 18 lbs for recent wins, but latest joint career high Racing Post Rating of 102, suggests that he should cope with his latest OR of 94 and he was only beaten 1/2 length into second when last seen at this track. Currently favourite at best odds of 7/2 BOG, but still offers a bit of value in my opinion as I believe that he should be around 5/2.

Suggest 1 pt win on each, plus a 1 pt Each Way double.

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Re: Horse Racing Discussion - Thursday 12 January 2017

Postby Buckz990 » Wed Jan 11, 2017 9:49 pm

1:50 CATTERICK - A LITTLE MAGIC

A LITTLE MAGIC scored a good win last time out at Huntingdon with a front running performance with some excellent jumping. That win came on good to soft ground and that is forecast for Catterick tomorrow and I really like the look of this horses chances of following up with Noel Fehily on board and expect more improvement to come. Currently around 13/8 with most of the bookmakers 6/4 with a couple.

Good luck :wink:

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Re: Horse Racing Discussion - Thursday 12 January 2017

Postby benucci » Wed Jan 11, 2017 10:27 pm

1:50 Catterick 400 Win NAP A Little Magic (Daily Racing) 2.62 bet365


"A little Magic found himself a nice little race to follow up 6 pounds higher i think. Many here look without chance or on wrong conditions. Indian Voyage wants a galloping course, Domtaline prefers further actually."
Blog 1 closed: Benuccis Paddock Selections
Endbalance after 17 Days: +99,73 Units 1 Unit staked per Bet

Leicester Bigot
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Re: Horse Racing Discussion - Thursday 12 January 2017

Postby Leicester Bigot » Wed Jan 11, 2017 10:31 pm

Will Sir Jamie definitely run tomorrow?

He ran 5th today at Kempton and maybe they will see how he is in the morning before committing him to another race just a day later?

That 8.00 Chelmsford is not really my cup of tea but Rosie Crowe has something like consistency in a race of woeful form lines and she has won over C+D. 7/1 each-way is more appealing to my eyes than some of them. Her jockey has some winners under his belt and claims 5 lbs.

Looks a tricky race.
The path is clear though no eyes can see the course laid down long before

Casper77
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Re: Horse Racing Discussion - Thursday 12 January 2017

Postby Casper77 » Wed Jan 11, 2017 10:42 pm

There is the possibility that he might not run. trainer likes bringing them out quick again though. He has a pile of runners out again today. He isn't quite hitting any form yet. Expect him to bag a few winners across the cards one of these days, he usually does ok at the start of the year.

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Re: Horse Racing Discussion - Thursday 12 January 2017

Postby The Market Man » Wed Jan 11, 2017 11:17 pm

Betfred have been running a promotion in January where, at one selected meeting each day, if your horse finishes second you get a free bet to the same stake. It's proven to be very useful on a few occasions in the last week !

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Re: Horse Racing Discussion - Thursday 12 January 2017

Postby jasminemegan » Thu Jan 12, 2017 7:50 am

Seconded Market Man - really useful.

I've only had 1 day in the last 2 weeks where I've failed to either pick the winner or secure the free bet for 2nd (which happened to be yesterday). Obv I don't expect this run to continue :) I would post what I pick but it's mainly just a case of me picking what's the most tipped.

worth noting that sometimes they don't put it up in their promotions list until mid-morning.

Gl

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Re: Horse Racing Discussion - Thursday 12 January 2017

Postby caneyesmoke » Thu Jan 12, 2017 10:04 am

Of the Tony Carroll runners today it's Par Three that catches my attention.

Typically though, he also runs King Olav in the same race. The betting doesn't seem to agree with me but my preference is for Par Three.

River Dart also catches the eye in the 300. Luke Morris rides. Should go close.

Oddsocks in the last at Chelmsfold looks up against it. Though my own stomach isn't strong enough to be laying Tony Carroll runners at 20s on the AW donkey racing.

Henry Croft I'm treating with caution. Never had much luck with maidens and this doesn't look like the two horse race that the betting would imply. I am however very tempted. The price looks fair if nothing else and I genuinely fancy it's chances against Codeshare. It's the rest of the field that concern me.

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Re: Horse Racing Discussion - Thursday 12 January 2017

Postby nors » Thu Jan 12, 2017 10:08 am

Welcome to the forum canyesmoke, good to get your helpful input on the racing thread :win:

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Re: Horse Racing Discussion - Thursday 12 January 2017

Postby caneyesmoke » Thu Jan 12, 2017 10:45 am

Thanks. Nice forum it is, too. I'm more of a fan of the flat (if I'm allowed to say that?). I'll be more vocal in the springtime, likely. There was a time I'd back Tony's runners blindly. My methods are somewhat more refined these days. Emphasis on the "somewhat".

If I still rolled like I used to, it'd be a mugs ew double on River Dart and Par Three today. If King Olav drifted I might also get stuck into that. Perhaps important to note Par Three has another group 6 entry at Wolverhampton on Saturday over the same trip.

My first bet today will be a mugs EW double , and one of the rare days I'll back Fahey trained runner. If I have any luck with that I might get stuck in to Tony's runners tonight.

Larkhall 3.10
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Good luck folks.

Edit- not sure if my sarcasm detector is playing up, if I'm breaking any particular etiquette or posting conventions let me know and I'll read over the forums rules before my next post.

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