Premier League Relegation diary 2018/19

davidg3907
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Premier League Relegation diary 2018/19

Postby davidg3907 » Sun Jul 22, 2018 10:02 am

Last season some early bets could have, and maybe should have, been traded during the season. Until the last week of February, everything seemed on course for a decent profit, but from that point on it just became more and more difficult to get back on track. There were several factors behind this but primarily it was due to teams laid for relegation beating teams backed for relegation. This gave far less scope to take remedial action.

Ultimately it was down to Swansea's initial upturn in form suddenly deserting them, and Huddersfield who had fought their way from mid-table into what was looking like a relegation season after all, gaining confidence from a win at West Brom.

The stakes shown will again be proportional to show the strength of bet but of course, do not relate directly to cash amounts. The odds quoted will be those available at the time - whether to place or invite, a bet. These will include both back bets and lays.

In all cases, a point will represent the same (undisclosed) monetary value.

A progress update will be posted as convenient, but all bets will be recorded in as close to real time as possible.

The first bets in the book for this season are a couple of trades. One is still available; the other probably not in a way to make it worthwhile.

Wolves. I have backed them for 1.5 pts @ 10 and laid 1.5 pts @ 8.27 leaving a current position of backing them for 0.085 pt @ 40. To tidy things up, I am trying to match that small amount at slightly higher odds without success.

Southampton. I have backed the Saints for 10 pts @ 9.50 and laid 9 pts @ 8.80. They don't have a particularly easy start to the season so I would be prepared to let this run for a while if not matched.

Betfair's market has only recently opened, so prices are taking time to settle. Once they have done so, I shall look for any early season value either as trading for a few weeks or season long bets.
Last edited by davidg3907 on Mon Jul 23, 2018 3:57 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Premier League Relegation diary 2018/19

Postby undertherobe » Sun Jul 22, 2018 4:08 pm

With this market being over such a long period of time, what are the price movements like game by game?

For example, you mention Southampton have a not so easy start to the season. Will defeat against Burnley see their price fall by anything more than a marginal amount or would it take something like 4 defeats in their opening 5 games to see a significant movement?

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Re: Premier League Relegation diary 2018/19

Postby davidg3907 » Sun Jul 22, 2018 5:22 pm

"How long is a piece of string" may be over-simplifying it but in general, these can be guidelines.

1. Volatility is greater at the end of the season particularly in the case of 6-pointers.
2. Any teams over or underperforming by significant amounts in the first few games will have an effect.
3. At this time squad changes and managerial changes can still have some impact.
4. Leicester losing to Man Utd on the opening day would have much less effect on their odds than an easy win.

Last season, there was no World Cup. Betfair's market opened on June 2nd rather than July 21st.

#1-5. Mid-point movements from the opening show to opening round of matches.
#6-17. Mid-point odds every Tuesday to end of October.
#18-22. Mid-point at end of month to 31 March.
#23-24. A volatile day indeed due to results on April 14th.
#25-28. A volatile end to the season.

The GREY fill indicates teams confirmed as relegated. GREEN font odds reduced. RED font odds increased.
Other than in the last 2 rows, all figures above 100 have been omitted to avoid clutter.

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Re: Premier League Relegation diary 2018/19

Postby davidg3907 » Tue Jul 24, 2018 11:31 am

The following LAYS have been added and matched.

3 pts Leicester @ 15.00
1 pt Everton @ 40.00
2.5 pts Wolves @ 8.80 new overall total 4 pts @ 8.60


The following LAYS have been added and await matching.

10 pts Burnley @ 5.00
5 pts West Ham @ 8.60


The BACK bet on Wolves has been increased to 4 pts @ 10.00 to compensate.

There may be little scope for more action until just before the season starts.
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Re: Premier League Relegation diary 2018/19

Postby davidg3907 » Tue Jul 24, 2018 12:49 pm

Burnley matched.
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Re: Premier League Relegation diary 2018/19

Postby davidg3907 » Wed Jul 25, 2018 8:41 pm

A last ditch effort to get West Ham matched @ 9.00 is not going well. if not taken soon, I shall cancel. Matched 10 minutes later.
I tried to lay Arsenal at around 60 but their odds have suddenly become more realistic so that has been cancelled.

I have invested another 10 pts worth of Southampton at what still seems a very attractive 9.50. There will be time to trade this at a profit in the future if I choose that option.

I am trying to lay half of this Southampton bet @ 8.00 and so far it is partially matched.
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Re: Premier League Relegation diary 2018/19

Postby davidg3907 » Thu Jul 26, 2018 6:04 pm

I went out earlier and saw a massive discrepancy between Leicester's back and lay odds. I placed a very speculative lay of 5 pts @ 11 and to my surprise , it was matched by the time I returned.
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Re: Premier League Relegation diary 2018/19

Postby davidg3907 » Thu Jul 26, 2018 6:10 pm

A trade of 2 pts @ 18.00 has been placed and that leaves plenty of room for any subsequent manoeuvering.

A full update of positions to follow after the weekend.
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Re: Premier League Relegation diary 2018/19

Postby davidg3907 » Sat Jul 28, 2018 7:36 pm

Of the Southampton lay bet, 1.5 pts was matched at 8.00 with the remaining 3.5 pts at 8.40
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Re: Premier League Relegation diary 2018/19

Postby davidg3907 » Mon Jul 30, 2018 9:12 am

As promised, the up-to-date portfolio is shown below with current back/lay odds in brackets. Where trading has taken place, only the overall figure is shown.

The following have been laid.
10 pts Burnley @ 5.00 (4.90 / 5.00).
5 pts West Ham @ 9.00 (9.40 / 9.60).
1 pt Everton @ 40.00 (30.00 / 34.00).
6 pts Leicester @ 10.67 (13.50 / 14.00).

The following have been backed.
6 pts Southampton @ 11.57 (8.60 / 8.80). This may be traded further once the season commences.

The following has been traded out.
Wolves 4.5 pts profit if relegated, level if safe (8.60 / 9.00).
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Re: Premier League Relegation diary 2018/19

Postby davidg3907 » Tue Jul 31, 2018 3:00 pm

Further requests.

Lays.
20 pts Fulham @ 3.60
10 pts Crystal Palace @ 6.40 (partly matched)
Backs.
15 pts Huddersfield @ 2.20
10 pts Watford @ 3.35
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Re: Premier League Relegation diary 2018/19

Postby davidg3907 » Wed Aug 01, 2018 4:46 pm

The Huddersfield and Crystal Palace bets have been matched in full.

I tried to lay Fulham @ 3.45 but the drift beat me and that has now been cancelled - to be reviewed after their first 2 games.

Watford has been left as awaiting matching. The sticky bit with them is that 4 of their first 5 games are at home (albeit last 2 against Man Utd and Tottenham so picking up points in the first 3 could see the odds drift.
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